Monday, September 18, 2006

Tuesday Morning Leaf


Since I've been so bad at picking these games, I've decided to name the recap after one of the worst QB picks of all time. So here's to you Ryan Leaf, wherever you may be. This is the first test of the Speigler method (SM) which went 11-4 in week one.
On with the show!
Home Team in Bold

Miami -6.5 Buffalo
Dante Culpepper certainly didn't impress anyone last week in his return to action. He was playing against the defending SuperBowl champs, but he's not quite at 100% yet. Buffalo put up a great fight and almost beat NE in Foxboro (or wherever the hell the play now). Buffalo usually plays better at home. I'm going with the points on this one. The U/O is 37. I'd take the under in this game.
Buffalo dominated this game. They sacked Culpepper 7 times and held Miami to 6 points. If you were to look at this pick, you would almost think that I knew what I was doing. Of course the builders of the Titanic thought they knew what they were doing as well. Is that an Iceberg up ahead? 1-0, 1-0 u/o.

Carolina -1.5 Minnesota
Carolina showed what a weak offense they are without Steve smith last week. Minnesota played a smart, conservative game and came away with a road win against Washington. I am tempted to believe that Carolina will come up with a better game plan this week considering that smith is likely to be out again. However, I'm not going against the SM. I'll take the points and the under (37)
Wow, the Speigler method comes through, this is clearly the high point of the weekend. I would warn you that it's only going to get bloody after this. So if you have a weak stomach, you should exit right now with the warm fuzzy feeling provided by my first two picks. 2-0, 2-0 u/o.

Cincinnati -10.5 Cleveland
Cleveland is pretty damn bad. I don't how many games they are going to win this year but the under/over has to be at about 4. Cincinnati looked very good last week and while Palmer didn't have a great game, he didn't make any mistakes either. As I learned last week, 10.5 is a lot of points. I'm really tempted to go the other way, but I'm sticking with the plan. Take the points.
Cleveland is really bad. I knew that and yet, I stuck with the SM. I guess I'll know better going forward. I somehow forgot to pick the u/o in this game. I'm not sure why, but perhaps I knew that my fortunes were about to turn. 2-1, 2-0 u/o.

Atlanta -5.5 Tampa Bay
It's amazing how one bad week turns everything around. Tampa Bay, who some predicted would end up in the superbowl are now underdogs to Atlanta. Michael Vick played under control last week and the Falcons won in convincing fashion. Their first home game should get the blood pumping a little faster for Mr. Vick. We might see him pull off something amazing this weekend. And I still think Chris Simms sucks. All that being said, I'm taking the points. I'll go with the over (36) in this one.
Another very impressive performance by Michael Vick. He's actually looking like a NFL QB these days. The Atlanta running game continues to chew up the opponents and Chris Simms really does suck. I think it's only a matter of time before the Major Applewhite chants start up in Tampa Bay. I'm sure he'd be more than willing to leave his job as an insurance salesman to beat out Simms again. 2-2. 2-1 u/o.

Baltimore -12.5 Oakland
It's a testament to how poorly Oakland played last week that they are an almost two touchdown underdog to a team that has historically had problems scoring points. Is Oakland as bad as they looked last week? They can't be, can they? Steve McNair is still healthy after a week one win, so all the elements are in place for a blowout. However 12.5 is a huge spread, so I'm sticking with the plan and taking the points. I'll take the under (34)
Oakland is horrendous! I think they may be worse than Cleveland. I'm not sure that they'll score a touchdown this year. Aaron Brooks should start looking for work. Steve McNair is making a real difference in Baltimore. It's amazing what a QB who can actually throw will do for an offense. Baltimore is rolling until McNair gets hurt, and he will get hurt. 2-3. 2-1 u/o (there was a push in this game).

Philadelphia -3 NY Giants
Philadelphia looked great last week. McNabb is definitely fully recovered from last seasons injuries. The Giants were solid against the Colts, but could not come away with the victory. This is the first divisional match-up for both teams and I expect it will be a very tight game. I'm thinking that Manning will come out with a pretty strong. I suspect that he was a little nervous last week playing his brother, but he still managed to outperform him. I'll take the points and the over (43).
Eli Manning makes me look like a genius on this one. McNabb is definitely all the way back, but Eli pulled this one out with 17 4th quarter points and a touchdown pass in OT. It's starting to look like this week isn't going to a total disaster after all. Wait a minute, of course it's going to be a total disaster. Sorry, my dementia got the better of me for a minute. 3-3. 3-1 u/o.


New Orleans -2 Green Bay
Green Bay looked terrible last week. New Orleans looked ok. It's another home game for Brett Favre and crew and they have to be able to bounce back from the disaster that was last week. I don't know why I think that they can, but I just think that they are going to be much more focused and Favre definitely has something to prove. I'll take the points and the over (38).
Brett Favre and crew did bounce back from their terrible opening week display against the Bears, but alas it was not enough. Brett put up 350 yards and 3 TD's but they couldn't overcome the suddenly potent Saints. So while my predication of a bounce back came true for the offense, apparently the defense is still on summer vacation. Reggie Bush hasn't exactly set the world on fire to this point, but he hasn't had to. I'm still thinking the folks in Houston would have rather had him.
Oh well, another pick down the drain. 3-4. 4-1 u/o.




Indianapolis -13.5 Houston
Wow, this is a huge spread. Houston didn't show much against the Eagles and the Colts looked less than dominating against the Giants even though they managed to get the win. The Houston O-line continues to be swiss cheese and without their starting RB for the remainder of the season, David Carr is going to running for his life. Anyway, I still think that you could get a college team to cover 2 touchdowns. Take the points and the under (47).
I know I said that Houston and Oakland sucked, but guess what? So do the Texans. And seriously, who came up with that name? The Texans? What the F$#k? How much money did it cost them to come up with that winner? Let's see, we're from Houston, the Oilers used to play here, so there's oil, there's cattle, there' cowboys. Damn it, the Cowboys are taken. Shit, well I guess we're out of ideas. I've got it! The Texans! I'm so surprised that no has ever used their home state before. I mean how cool would the San Franciso Californians be? Better yet, the New York New Yorkers. Wow, I'm glad we thought of this first. They really have to stop the in breeding in Texas. 3-5. 4-2 u/o.

Seattle -7 Arizona
Was last week just a blip on the radar screen for the Seahawks? We're about to find out as a rejuvinated Kurt Warner and his aerial attack come to Seattle for a visit. Arizona looks like they can definitely put up some points and Seattle is going to have score more than the 9(?) they managed against Detroit last week. Anyway, take the points and the over (47).
So much for the high powered Arizona offense. The Seattle defense which managed to hold down the high powered Detroit offense last week (that's sarcasm by the way), proved that they could also hold down a team with actual offensive weapons. I guess looking back I should have at least realized that they wouldn't break 40 points between them. Once again, I'm not smart and I'm considered awkward in social situations. Then there's the bad breath, but I digress. 3-6. 4-3 u/o.

St. Louis -3 San Francisco
St. Louis pulled off the upset of Denver at home last week and San Francisco played better than expected in their loss. I still don't think San Francisco is very good. I'm deviating from the SM for this game. Take St. Louis and the under (43.5).
Well, I shouldn't have deviated from the SM for this game. I'm really beginning to think that I have the worse luck in the world. There have been 6 game so far that the SM didn't work for, but did I pick against the method in any of those games? Nooooo. I had to chose this one. I can't even blame this one on stupidity. I just have to blame bad luck. How do I turn a 50/50 proposition into this debacle? Do you know what 50/50 means to me? 100% wrong. Ok maybe not 100% wrong, but close enough.
Dont' cry for me though, I'll pull through. 3-7. 5-3 u/o.


Denver -11 Kansas City
Denver has the best home field advantage in all of professional sports. Kansas City lost it's starting QB last week and has a history of getting blown in Denver. They have never won at the new stadium there and without a Green they stand little chance. Larry Johnson is going to have to have a huge day if KC is to stay in this game. Jake Plummer has his own problems, from a subpar performance last week, to a rookie who's just waiting to take his place. The fans will be all over him if he doesn't get off to a good start. Take the points and the under (40.5).
This game turned into a defensive struggle. Larry Johnson had a big rushing game(good for my fantasy team), but didn't get into the endzone(bad for my fantasy team). Since neither team could score, I get to look like I actually know what I'm talking about again. Don't worry, it won't last long. 4-7. 6-3 u/o.



NE -6 NY Jets
The Jets looked very impressive in their opening game and now get to play their first home game. NE struggled against Buffalo in their home opener. The Patriots have a pretty good running attack, but they have lost their best receiver. As long as Pennington stays on the field the Jets will have a chance. Take the points and the under (37).
And just like that, the winning streak comes to an end at one. Can we have a moment of silence please. Ok, that's long enough. The Jets lost by seven and the teams combined to score 41. The short bus is backing up. I almost convinced them that I wasn't mentally challenged, but this performance isn't doing me any good. At least I'm wearing a cup this week. I learned from all the people who volunteered to kick me in the sack last week. Who knew that would be such a popular hobby. 4-8. 6-4 u/o.


San Diego -11.5 Tennessee
Jesus! what's with all the double digit spreads this week. Clearly the odds makers think that there are some horrible teams in the NFL. I happen to agree but these are big numbers to cover. San Diego is now a running team. They are keeping Phillip Rivers on a short leash for now. Tennessee is still a mess. Kerry Collins got the start last week, but even Vince Young got in for a series. I'm not sure what happens, but I'm hoping that the SM works again. Take the points and the under (37.5).
Another total wipeout and another team to join the ranks of absolutely terrible. Tennessee is another team that may not win a game this year. Vince Young actually led a touchdown drive this week. They may be in a position to win when they take on the pee wee league team in week 17. Perhaps they can schedule them during their bye week. I'm sure it would do wonders for morale. San Deigo is still winning with their ground game. As long as the games aren't close, they never have to find out if Rivers can actually lead the team to victory. I guess I shoudn't be so quick to dismiss double digit spreads, since 4 out of 5 covered this week. Oh well, back to the drawing board. 4-9. 6-5 u/o.


Dallas -6 Washington
Two teams coming off very unimpressive performances. Another game like last week and Bledsoe is going to find himself holding a clipboard. Washington should have Portis back for the whole game this week and, as is the norm in games between these two, it should go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal. Hopefully Vanderjagt is up to the task. Apparently Bill Parcells doesn't have any faith in him. Take the points and the over (37).
Drew Bledsoe saved his job for another week. The Tony Romo bandwagon is going to have to wait for at least 2 more weeks since the Cowboys have a bye next week. T.O. broke his finger and is out for 3-5 weeks. I have a hangnail and I'm going to be out for a 3-5 minutes. What happened to the real men who used to play this game. Where's Ronnie Lott when you need him. Lott actually had the tip of his finger cut off during the half time of a game so that he could go in and play the second half. T.O. breaks a finger and can't play for a month??? what the hell? I guess he can go back to riding the stationary bike. Anyway, another loss for the SM. 4-10. 6-5 u/o (another push on the points).

Pittsburgh -1.5 Jacksonville
Big Ben may be back for Pittsburgh for this Monday night game. I can't say for sure and 1.5 means that this is basically a pick 'em game. Jacksonville looked good vs. the Cowboys and they are at home, plus I'm a big fan of Byron Leftwich. I'm going to stick with the SM and take the Jags and the over (36.5).
I'm not even going to wait for the outcome of this one. I'm sure Pittsburgh will win and score about 40 points. The SM last week would have been 11-4, this week, it looks like 4-11. So much for that. Tune in next week when I come up with another method that completely sucks.
Update: The Jags win a defensive struggle. Amazing. Of course I went with the over in this one which pretty much nulifies the pick. final record 5-10. 6-6 u/o. All in all I'd say that is pathetic, much like my life. Anyway, next week promises more of the same.

Here are my BEST BETS OF THE WEEK.
Buffalo +6.5
St. Louis -3
Jets +6
Arizona +7
Best best record 1-3. Is there a way for me to do any worse? I really think that if I were actually trying to get every game wrong that I would be better. Perhaps that's my method for next week. I'm going to pick every game opposite to how I actually think it will go. All I have to do is come up with a name for this new and exciting method by Friday. I'm sure that will have you all on pins and needles. Until then faithful readers. And remember folks, be good to your parents, they've been good to you.

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