Quick Post

I know it's been a very long time since I posted anything here, but I thought I'd drop by for a quick note. I have watched about 10 Yankee games this season and I'm pretty sure that they are not going to make the playoffs this year. It's all about pitching, defense and clutch hitting. The Yankees have very little of these. The bullpen is an absolute disaster, the starting pitching is mediocre to terrible. The failure rate with runners in scoring position is astronomical and the defense, while not particularly error prone, is far from stellar. That's about it. They are not terrible, but I don't see them winning more than the 89 games they won last year.

This is the End

Brett Favre announced his retirement in a tearful press conference yesterday. The press covered as though Lou Gehrig was announcing that he was retiring because he had a terminal disease. Bret Favre has long been one of the most self centered athletes in sports and I will certainly not miss him come the fall. His yearly tease of the Packers with his "will he retire or not" nonsense has cost the Packers a few years of development of their QB of the future. I have no idea whether Aaron Rodgers can lead the Packers to playoff glory and thanks to Brett Favre, neither do the Packers.

Somehow Sports Illustrated saw fit to name this former drug abuser it's sportsman of the year. I haven't seen a less inspiring choice since they picked the steroid twins (Sosa and McGwire) as their co-winners in 1998. Somehow the press seemed to buy that "I'm just a good old boy from Mississippi" line. After all, he didn't know no better. They gave him drugs and he just kept on taking them. Also, his badgering of teammates to sign contracts instead of holdout was pretty easy for someone with one of the richest contracts in NFL history. I never heard him say that he would be willing to donate some of his own contract to help the team sign one of those players.

Brett Favre stayed around until he broke Dan Marino's records for TD's and yardage. The fact that the Packers were very competitive this year was as much a shock to him as it was to everyone else. He could not have thought that his team, which was coming off a losing season and didn't sign any major free agents, would make it to the NFC championship game. He came back to break the records, the rest was just gravy. And now with no more records to break (he could continue to add to his all time record for passes intercepted), the 19th rated QB of all time (behind such legends as Marc Bulger and Jeff Garcia) will quietly retire to his estate in Mississippi. So long Brett, and try to stay away from the Vicodin if you can.

Live from New York...

Hello everyone. I am sorry that I have been away for a while. I've spent my time covering the political season over on my other blog, Random Thoughts (feel free to take a look if you'd like), but I'm back and ready for March Madness and the baseball season. Hopefully I haven't lost everyone who used to come by (I'm sure the people searching for midget sex games are still regular visitors). I don't really have anything more to add today. I just wanted to say that it's good to be back.

Beast of the East

The New York Mets won the Johan Santana sweepstakes with a package of prospects for the former Cy Young award winner. They have until tomorrow to finalize a contract extension that would bring Santana to New York. It's an amazing coup for Omar Minaya the Mets GM and Mets fans, who had to suffer through a historic collapse of their team down the stretch last season. In fact in Vegas, the Mets are now the second betting favorite to win the World Series.

There are many who are saying that the Twins GM overplayed his hand and ended up with less than he could have gotten originally from the Red Sox or Yankees. On the surface that cerainly appears to be true. Both the Red Sox and Yankees were offering players who are major league ready and are projected to have higher ceilings that any of the players that the Twins eventually got from the Mets. Of course we have seen many "can't miss" prospects who have failed to live up to their billing and many others with less than stellar minor league careers become stars on the big league level. For instance both Robinson Cano and Chien Ming Wang were offered to Arizona in the Randy Johnson deal but they passed on both of them. It is almost impossible to predict how a players career will end up based on their minor league careers. The Mets had a trio of young minor league pitchers in the nineties (Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson) that were supposed to be the cornerstone of their franchise for the next decade. However, all three ended up with major injuries to their pitching arms and only one (Jason Isringhauser) has become a good major leaguer albeit in a different role than anticipated and for a different team.

The Yankees and Red Sox eventually both pulled back their best offers after the Twins GM kept on asking for more. In truth, I don't think that the Red Sox were really that interested in acquiring Santana. They were mostly interested in making sure that the Yankees didn't get him or in driving up the price that the Yankeees would have to pay. Once the Yankees pulled their offer, I think the Red Sox lost interest in making a deal. That left the Mets as practically the only game in town. Santana is in the last year of his contract and the team that traded for him would have to be willing to make him an offer in excess of $20 million a year for 6 or 7 years. That limited the number of teams that the Twins could talk to. The Oakland A's got a better package from the Diamondbacks when they traded Dan Haren earlier this offseason mainly because he isn't eligible for free agency for another three years. In the end the Twins management clearly decided that they had to make the deal before spring training to avoid a media circus. The problem was that once they finally came to that decision, the only firm offer left on the table was from the Mets.

With this trade, the Mets now set themselves up as not only the best team in the eastern division, but perhaps the best team in the National League. The Phillies big move in the offseason was to add the mercurial closer Brad Lidge. The Braves added the ancient Tom Glavine to their pitching staff. The Cubs added an unknown quanitity in picking up an outfielder from Japan. The Diamondbacks with the addition of Dan Haren are the only team that can claim to have improved their pitching staff as much as the Mets have. The Mets rotation, which returns two young 15 game winners, a supposedly healed Pedro Martinez and the ageless wonder El Duque can now stake a claim to being the leagues best and deepest rotation. This trade also helps the Mets in their neverending battle with their crosstown rivals for the back pages of the NY tabloids.

On it's face, this trade appears to be a slam dunk win for the Mets and Omar Minaya. It's the kind of bold move that will help the fans forget the dissappointment of blowing a 7 game lead in the final weeks of last season. Like all other fans they can now look toward spring training with a feeling of renewed hope. Unlike the fans of most teams however, they do have more of a reason to think that 2008 will be their year.

Winter Doldrums

I have to apologize to anyone who is a regular reader of this blog. I have been sadly under performing for the past couple of months. Unfortunately we are in the middle of what I not so lovingly refer to as the DEAD ZONE! We have a couple of months before the baseball season starts and the NCAA Tournament doesn't begin until March, the Football season is in their annual two weak hiatus before ending for the year and really does anyone care about the NBA or the NHL until the playoffs begin?

I have been searching for topics to write about, but I haven't really been able to come up with much. I could write about the big off season trades that have taken place, but there really haven't been any with huge pennant race implications. The free agent market was pretty lackluster this year, so I haven't really had much to talk about their either. I almost feel as if I've run out of good topics to write about.

Of course I usually feel this way at this time of year. Thankfully Valentine's Day is only a couple of weeks away. And, no, I'm not feeling particularly romantic this year, but February 14th only means one thing (and I'm not talking about once again letting down your wife or girlfriend with some crappy candy or cheesy flower arrangement); I am, of course referring to that wonderful day that will once again bring a ray of sunshine into our otherwise dull and dreary lives; Pitchers and Catchers will be reporting to spring training! Our thoughts will once again turn to spring and summer days and the endless possibilities of the season ahead. Every team is a contender and every player is a possible all-star. It is perhaps the most hopeful of seasons (I'm referring to Spring Training as a season, which is really funny since it starts in the middle of Winter) when everything is possible and the world looks a little brighter.

I'm certain that my entries will pick up again in February. Until then, keep the faith and just keep saying to yourself, "It just doesn't matter, it just doesn't matter" (by the way, I promise a personal mention in my next blog to the first person to correctly name the movie referred to in the quote. See you soon and keep fighting the good fight.

Long Overdue

In my first post of the year (long overdue), I'm thrilled to be able to do something that I should have been able to do years ago and that is congratulate Rich "Goose" Gossage on his election to the hall of fame (long overdue). In a column last January about the Hall of Fame vote, I mentioned that I hoped that I would be able to write a congratulatory note to Goose this year and thankfully the voters finally got it right.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again, Goose was the best closer that I have ever seen; Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman not withstanding. Gossage now ranks 17th on the all time saves list as the modern closer has been reduced to a one inning pitcher. I would dare say that if Gossage had been used that way, he would be quite a bit higher on the list. He ranks third all time in saves of 2 or more innings. In the famous playoff game against the Red Sox in '78, he came into the game with one out in the seventh inning. Can you imagine a manager today asking his closer to get eight outs to end a game? I was actually watching that game and certainly don't remember thinking that I would have rather that Billy martin bring in the set up guy and save Gossage for the 9th inning. The game was on the line and Billy put in the best pitcher that he had in the bullpen.

Rich Gossage was named on 86% of the ballots this year which was an double digit increase from last year. I always wonder what the voters who just decided that they would vote for him this year were thinking in previous years. Did he somehow get better overnight? Did he go out and pitch a few more games? If he's a Hall of famer this year, then he was a hall of famer last year. There has always been a barrier to relievers getting into the hall, but I believe that now they have corrected one of their greatest injustices. There are now five pitchers who spent the majority of their careers as relievers who have been inducted into the hall of fame, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter and Goose. I'm assuming that Mariano and Hoffman will join them someday in the not too distant future.

So once again, I say congratulations, Goose. You've had to wait far too long. I'll always remember a summer day at the stadium when you came into a game in the 9th inning with the bases loaded and struck out the side on 11 pitches. Pure power pitching at it's best. Thanks for the memories and the saves. I hope you enjoy induction ceremony in Cooperstown this summer, even if is long overdue.

2007

It's time for my yearly wrap up. I wasn't particularly thrilled with much in sports this year. I enjoyed the baseball season, but the ending was not what I had in mind. The year was so uninspiring in fact that Sports Illustrated named Brett Favre it's sportsman of the year. Now Brett and the Packers are having a good year, but seriously, he hasn't done anything out of the ordinary this year. Brett did break the all time passing yardage record this year, but I wouldn't say that it would be on par with breaking the all time home run record. It would be more like SI naming Rickey Henderson the SOY after he broke the all time walks record or all time runs scored record. The home run record was broken this year, but as has been rehashed many times in the press and on this blog, there were many reasons why that was not a joyous occasion. Momentous yes, joyous no.

The Year started out with Peyton Manning and the Colts finally getting the monkey off their back by winning a superbowl. Actually, the more I think about it, Tony Dungy should have been the SOY. He was not only the first black coach to win the Superbowl, but his story of perseverance after the tragic loss of his son should have been enough to put him over the top. It's a better story than Brett Favre has to tell.

The Spurs won the NBA championship again. It was predictable and boring. I'm guessing that if they hadn't already given Duncan the SOY a few years ago, he would have taken it home this year. Florida won the men's NCAA crown in football and basketball. That was an unprecedented accomplishment.

The biggest "sports" story this year was the Mitchell report. It's a sad commentary when the biggest story of the year is about the abuse of illegal drugs by professional athletes. In the end, I think that 2007 will be remembered most for the fact that Hank Aaron's record was broken under a cloud of suspicion and controversy.

That's it for this year. I had a meager output of only 100 posts this year. I hope to do better next year, but I do want to thank the people who come back on a regular basis to check out my sometimes incoherent rambling. So thank you Sandy, Louise, Craig, Denise and Jeff. I'm sure there are more, but unfortunately, I don't know your names, but I do appreciate the support. Thanks to the folks at Replacement Level Yankees and The Chuck Knoblog for adding me to your links and keep up the good work.

That's it everyone. I hope you have a happy and safe New Year's celebration and I'll be back to rant and rave in '08.

Finger Pointing

Curt Schilling found the time to write a long article on his blog about the Mitchell report and specifically about Roger Clemens. Here's a quote from the article,

"From that point on the numbers were attained through using [performance-enhancing drugs]. Just like I stated about Jose [Canseco], if that is the case with Roger, the four Cy Youngs should go to the rightful winners, and the numbers should go away if he cannot refute the accusations."

I think that Clemens is clearly in a bad situation, but as I stated in a previous article, the "evidence" against Clemens in the Mitchell report would not hold up in a court of law. In fact, the only evidence against him is the word of a former employee. Curt Schilling is someone who can't help but give his opinion regardless of the topic and whether he's qualified to comment. His views on the war in Iraq are well known (and are ridiculous), as are his holier than thou comments regarding steroid use. How exactly is Clemens supposed to be able to refute statements about something that supposedly happened with only two people in the room? Roger can deny the allegations, but he cannot absolutely refute them. Unless someone with a video camera was recording Roger's life 24/7 for the time when he was supposedly using steroids, then there is no way for him to absolutely refute the charges. His vehement denial is already on the record, but that isn't going to stop the tidal wave of articles or turn public opinion in his direction. Those two people now have differing opinions about what happened and that's probably how things will stand unless one of them decides to change their story.

I'm not here to defend Roger Clemens. At this point I think his legacy is tarnished forever. His hall of fame induction is in doubt and everything he did on the field after leaving the Red Sox is being viewed in a very different light. Roger will have to answer the accusations made against him at some point (perhaps under oath in a congressional hearing), but it's not Curt Schilling's place to demand that Roger to do something that is, for all intents and purposes, impossible.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if one day Schilling himself is accused of steroid use. After all, he did enjoy the best seasons of his career at ages 34, 35 and 37. How rare is it for a pitcher to win 20 games three times after turning 34 when he had never won 20 games previously? Rare enough that Schilling is the only pitcher in history ever to have turned that particular trick. I'm not accusing Schilling of anything, but if you look at the numbers, you have to wonder just a little bit. Don't you?

Also...

Just so that all the Red Sox fans out there don't get on their high horse about their "clean" team, here's a report on Eric Gagne from a Red Sox scout that was sent to Theo Epstein during the 2006 off season

"Some digging on Gagne and steroids IS the issue. Has had a checkered medical past throughout career including minor leagues. Lacks the poise and commitment to stay healthy, maintain body and re invent self. What made him a tenacious closer was the max effort plus stuff ... Mentality without the plus weapons and without steroid help probably creates a large risk in bounce back durability and ability to throw average while allowing the change-up to play as it once did ... Personally, durability (or lack of) will follow Gagne ..."

The scout was responding to a email from Theo in which he asked, "Have you done any digging on Gagne? I know the Dodgers" -- not to mention everybody else in the world -- "think he was a steroid guy. Maybe so. What do you hear on his medical?"

The Red Sox traded for Gagne nine months later even though they had this report in house plus their own suspicion beforehand. That shows just how much how much baseball owners and management care about steroid abuse. It's all about winning and the money that comes with that. Even for the now sainted Red Sox.

Something in the Mitchell report that seems to have gotten lost in all the Roger Clemens talk is that the GM of the San Fransisco Giants was made aware in 2002 of the fact that Barry Bonds' personal trainer was a steroid dealer and did nothing about it. Here's something that I wrote when the investigation was first reported:

I understand that George Mitchell has a great reputation for being far and tough, but why would Bud even risk the appearance of bias? What happens if he finds evidence that the owner of the Giants knew that Bonds was taking steroids? Will he want to indict one of his fellow owners? Would he want to take down someone from his own fraternity?

Apparently he did find proof that someone high up in Giants management did know of the steroid connection, but that still wasn't reason enough for him to say that baseball ownership or management had any culpability in the steroid problem. Very interesting, don't you think?

Sound and Fury

The Mitchell Report was released yesterday and with it a firestorm of controversy has arisen. The report names names, most prominently Roger Clemens, and lays out a plan for addressing the abuse of PED's in baseball. Overall the report was a well intentioned effort to try and address the problems of PED's, but I think it missed the mark on more than a couple of points.

First of all Mitchell mentioned that the players, the union and the Commissioner's office were all to blame for this problem. While that is true, he forgot to mention another party that was implicit in this scandal. The owners are just as much to blame for this as the other parties that were named. It couldn't be because Mitchell is part owner of the Red Sox, could it? I've always thought that Mitchell wasn't impartial enough to head this assignment. The owners knew what was going on, but all they cared about was how much money they were making. And now according to this report they are blameless??? And what about the Red Sox team? According to this report over 10 former or current Yankees were abusers of PED's, but only one Red Sox player was named. Roger Clemens is named, but the alleged abuse only took place after he had already left the team. So according to the report, the Yankees World Series run was fueled by steroids. The Internet is already burning up with Red Sox fans talking about how the Yankees wins are invalid because they had steroid users on their team. I wrote about this when the investigation was first announced and I stick by everything I said then. A report by an INDEPENDENT investigator would have been much more welcome than one by a baseball insider, regardless of their credentials.

Bud Selig responded that he would take action based on this report and said that has already taken steps to implement some of the recommendations laid out in the report. So after all this time and money has been spent has baseball really learned anything that they didn't know before this started? Here's a quote from something I wrote a while back in June about what the investigation would discover:

If you're in a giving mood, you can send me the $2 million you were going to spend on the commission next month. Alright are you ready, here goes. Steroid use was widespread and rampant during the 90's and early 00's. That's it.

And that really is all they have. For the tens of millions of dollars that was spent to produce that impressive 300+ page document, did they really find out anything more than that? Bud Selig knew this before the investigation, but at yesterday's press conference, he acted as though he was shocked by what was contained in the report. Immediate action needs to be taken, he said. I'll handle each infraction on a case by case basis, he proclaimed. What a bunch of bullshit! How he can now stand there and pretend that his eyes have just now been opened to this is simply amazing to me. There is no definitive proof in the document. None that would stand up in a court of law anyway. Maybe he knows a couple more names than he did before but to think that this report is somehow the font of all knowledge about PED abuse in baseball is almost laughable.

Now we get to the players named. I feel the worst for Brian Roberts, who was included in the report based on the fact that someone reported that he told them once that he took steroids. That's the entire basis for his inclusion. That's just wrong. I realize that this is not a legal document, but to sully someones reputation on evidence as flimsy as that is reprehensible. The players for whom documentation exists (cancelled checks, mailing labels, etc.), really have no defense to these charges. They chose to associate with (and write checks to) people who were involved in the illegal distribution of PED's and so they are paying the cost for that. That being said, I think that it's unfortunate that anyone was named in this report. It's very clear that the first hand testimony was mainly limited to two people with ties to the New York area. That leaves 92% of the country basically unaccounted for. If the report wasn't going to be all inclusive, then it should have included no one. Some of the most prominent alleged cheaters, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro (although since he tested positive, I guess I can remove the "alleged" tag), Brady Anderson, Albert Belle, Brett Boone, to name a few, were not accused in this report. Is it fair to claim that you are releasing a wide sweeping report on PED abuse and then name less than 10% of the people that actually bought the drugs? Besides Mitchell's lack of impartiality, I find this to be the greatest failing of the report. I understand that his sources were limited, but why chose to include names, when he knew that the list is far from complete? Did he think that these two NY based informants were the backbone of the PED industry in the United States? Clearly that can't be the case. Releasing names was a mistake and one that will in the long run produce the most damage.

Roger Clemens has long been the poster boy for all that is good about the game of baseball. His legendary training regiment has been marvelled at for years. His record 7 Cy Young Awards and 350+ wins, 4,000+ strikeouts have led many to consider him not only the greatest pitcher of his era, but perhaps the greatest of all time. He may have indeed gotten 100% of the vote when he became eligible for the Hall of Fame. That all changed yesterday. The accusations made by his former trainer yesterday were the most detailed of any of the charges leveled against anyone except Barry Bonds. His career after leaving the Red Sox and turning 34 (an age at which a lot of pitchers begin to see a decline in skills) is almost the match of Barry's amazing post 35 career. If anything he has been able to maintain his incredible skills for a longer time than Barry has. Barry won 4 MVP awards and finished 2nd once, Roger won 4 Cy Young awards and finished 3rd once. However Barry won his last MVP at age 39, while Roger won his last Cy Young award at the age of 41 (he finished 3rd at the age of 42). Why didn't baseball fans question Clemens' performance the way they did Barry's? Was it because he's White? Was it because Barry's an insufferable prick? Was it because unlike Barry, he actually had people on his team and in the press who actually liked and admired him? I'm sure it's a combination of all those things. Also while he arguably had the best seasons of his career after turning 34, they were not out of scale with what he had accomplished in the past. However in the four years prior to turning 34, he won a total of 40 games. In the two years after leaving the Red Sox he won 41 games. That's pretty much a quantum leap, but no one questioned it.

The allegations against Clemens will go unproven. There are no pictures of Clemens getting shot up with steroids, there are no cancelled checks (we would have seen them yesterday if they existed). All we have is the word of his former trainer, who really would have no reason to lie. Bonds has admitted to unknowingly taking steroids and has been raked over the coals by the fans and the press (and by me on various occasions). He will have his day in court to defend his position. Clemens isn't going to get a day in court. This is not a criminal investigation and his only legal recourse would be sue baseball for libel. The problem being that libel (slanderous statements in print) carries a very high burden of proof. Basically it would have to be proven that George Mitchell (or whomever was ultimately responsible for the report being printed) knowingly included statements that they knew were false and would do harm to Clemens' reputation. I've already stated that I think that inclusion of names was wrong, but I don't think that George Mitchell or anyone else associated with the investigation knowingly included false statements in the report. Therefore Clemens is in an impossible position. He has already denied the report, but he basically has no other recourse. There are going to be people who believe he did steroids regardless of his denials. His name will always be associated with steroids in baseball and his legacy will forever be stained in the eyes of some.

Is baseball better off today than it was yesterday? I'm not sure. Besides ruining the reputation of a few baseball players, I'm not sure anything more was accomplished with the release of the Mitchell Report. I'm going to end by including something that I wrote a while back. It's a fictional letter from Bud Selig to baseball fans. I still think that this would have been the best and cleanest way for baseball to proceed. It's unfortunate that we find ourselves where we are today, but it was basically inevitable from the day this investigation was announced. The truth is that players will always look for an edge. Today's steroids will be tomorrow's blood enhancers and next decades genetic alteration. It will never end and the sad truth is that the Mitchell Report won't help at all.

To our fans,

Steroid abuse was widespread in baseball for a period of about 10 years. While we heard the whispers of this abuse, we (meaning management and the commissioners office) chose not to investigate this matter any further. The fact that the players union refused to allow us to put steroids on the banned substances list also played a big part in that decision. It is clear now that mistakes were made over that time, by the players, by the coaches, by the union, by the owners and by my own office. We apologize to the fans of baseball for our part in allowing the steroid abuse to take place. We could have done more to make sure that the integrity of the game was preserved.

We have now taken steps to ensure that this does not happen in the future. We have the toughest steroid penalties in North American sports and our testing program is among the most thorough of any sport. There is still no reliable test for Human Growth Hormone (HGH), but I assure that we are working towards eliminating all performance enhancing drugs from our sport. We appreciate your patience and continued support. Baseball is still the greatest game ever invented and we hope that the focus of attention can return to what's going on the field as opposed to the court room. Thank you once again for being such great fans of this game.

Bud Selig
Commissioner of Baseball and fan of the game

He's Got the Whole World, In His Hands

It is a slight exaggeration to suggest that Johan Santana has the whole world in his hands, but he does probably hold the key to the AL east in his hands. At this point the Twins are in serious negotiations with the Red Sox and Yankees for the services of the best pitcher in the AL. Santana, who is only one year away from free agency could be the single player who could decide which team will be the dominant one in the AL for the next five years. The Red Sox already have an advantage in pitching and adding Santana would not only make their rotation the best in baseball but the Yankees would be unable to match the move, even with their seemingly unlimited payroll. The Yankees on the other hand, by acquiring a number one starter would put themselves back on equal footing with the Red Sox in the pitching department.

The Yankees have spent lavishly this off season to retain their aging stars. Mariano Rivera was paid a ridiculous amount of money to come back for three more seasons and both he and Posada will be north of their 40th birthdays when these contracts expire. The monstrous Arod contract will also employ him until he well into his 40's. The Yankees were supposed to be in the middle of a youth movement, but their only moves this offseason have been to secure the services of players who will be well past their primes when their contracts expire. The seeming hope of the franchise (besides the endless supply of money) is that they have a wealth of young pitching. Three in particular stand out. Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. It was assumed that they would all get a chance to make the starting rotation next year. Now the talk of trading for Santana has changed that. The Yankees have said all along that Joba is untouchable and they'd rather not trade Hughes. That's pretty tough talk, but they'd probably do almost anything to block Santana's trade to the Red Sox. The Yankees had talked about moving in a new direction, about using home grown talent, about lowering their payroll. But at the end of the day, it's all about winning and winning now.

The Red Sox are sitting on top of the baseball world at this point and adding Santana would make them prohibitive favorites heading into next season. It must seem strange for most Boston fans to realize that they have basically switched roles with the Yankees. It used to be that the Sox were always trying to catch up with the Yankees and now it's just the opposite. The Red Sox have as much young talent as the Yankees and could almost certainly make a deal if they were willing to part with the players that the Twins have requested. However, like the Yankees, they are taking a harder line by refusing to include certain players. Do they as much at stake as the Yankees? Probably not. Unlike their Bronx counterparts, they would probably still feel good about their team if the Yankees were successful in acquiring Santana. I don't think that they would sweeten their offer to include their players who they now deem as untouchable if they were told that the Yankees had increased their offer.

Santana will demand a new contract in the range of $150-$160 million over seven years. That's why this bidding has come down to the Yankees and the Red Sox. They are not only the teams best stocked with the talent to make this trade, they are the two teams who could easily absorb a $20 million a year pitcher. Santana also has a complete no-trade clause in his contract. It seems to me that if he hadn't already told Twins management that he would accept a trade to either team, that they wouldn't be talking to them. There are other players in the game. The Mets, Angels and Dodgers have all had talks with the Twins as well, but if Santana is indeed traded, I expect it to be to the Yankees or Sox.

The Twins could just decide to hold on to Santana and see how the first half of the season goes. Teams are usually a little more desperate around the trading deadline and they could potentially get even more for Santana by waiting until then. A trade deadline deal from a desperate team (the Yankees) might be the way to go. Santana has already turned down a extension offer from the Twins, so it is unlikely that they will keep him past next year. The Twins have holes in CF, SS, Third base and the starting rotation, with Santana being the biggest chip they have, they are certainly going to take their time in making a decision.

So who wins this high stakes game of poker between the Yankees and Red Sox? Frankly I think the Sox are slightly better positioned to win this game. The sticking point with the Sox and Twins is over a center fielder. Position players are easier to come by than starting pitchers. The Yankees and Twins sticking point is Phil Hughes, who is a starter. I think the Sox eventually give in and throw the CFer into the deal and get it done. It's not the outcome that I want, but unless the Yankees are literally willing to give away the farm, they are going to lose this pissing contest.

Blue Monday

Let's see how the SM fared this weekend, shall we?

Baltimore +3

A push is not exactly a great start, but at least it's not a loss. I still have confidence that this will be a great week. SM 0-0.
Atlanta +3

Okay, maybe this won't be such a great week. Atlanta apparently forgot that they were supposed to show up play football this weekend. Seven is a great number for a baseball team. I'm sure they were confused by the large men in pads and helmets that kept on tackling them as they tried to round the bases. SM 0-1.

Miami +10

Another push. I really have to find spreads with 1/2 points. This is just getting ridiculous. SM 0-1.
Carolina +10

The Panthers did not cover the spread. This is looking more and more dire. 2 losses and 2 pushes. I'm beginning to doubt the SM. Has the all knowing, all seeing SM finally met it's match? Stay tuned boys and girls. SM 0-2.
Houston +1

Finally. The Texans of all teams come through. This was basically a pick 'em game, so the SM is finally starting to show it's true worth. SM 1-2.

Arizona +3.5

How about Arizona bringing us back to .500. Having the Texans and the Cardinals not only cover the spread, but bring home victories must be a first. I'm not going to do the research to back up that claim, but if you have the time, feel free to waste it looking that up. SM 2-2.
Detroit +3

The Lions at home seemed like a good bet. Their fans were actually beginning to believe that they might be on the verge of a turnaround in Motown, but alas, they still suck. SM 2-3.

Kansas City +14.5

The Chiefs fought the good fight and managed to lose by a respectable three points. The Colts are a shell of their former super bowl winning selves and until they get healthy, it's going to be a dog fight every weekend for them. SM 3-3.
San Diego +3

What the hell happened to the Chargers? Didn't they go 14-2 last year? Wasn't LT unstoppable last year? Didn't they have the same personnel coming back this year? I guess they miss old Marty in SD now. Sorry about this one Wayne. SM 3-4.
Oakland +5.5

The Raiders couldn't cover the spread even with the fact that the league's leading rusher was out for the Vikings. They are on my naughty list now. They are definitely not getting anything for Christmas. SM 3-5.
NY Jets +9.5

The Jets shocked the world and themselves by going beating the Steelers. This one was certainly unexpected. The Jets have a constant inferiority complex because their home stadium is named after another team, plus they are always playing second fiddle to that other team. It's not a coincidence that their name rhymes with the other team that plays second fiddle in this town. But hey, a win is a win. SM 4-5.

Chicago +5.5

The Bears must have spent the off season partying with the Chargers. Either that or they are eating too much of the pizza in Chicago. Second City, my ass. SM 4-6.
San Francisco +3

The 49ers lost by four just to piss me off. I hate San Francisco. I've never been, but I hate it anyway. I know that doesn't make any sense, but I'm a bitter, old man. SM 4-7.
Washington +10.5

The Cowboys won and that's really all that matters. Toby was at this game and I'm pretty sure she spent most of the game cursing. She's still mad about a Monday Night game from two seasons ago when the Redskins won on a last second play and proceeded to celebrate as if they'd won the super bowl. Hopefully she returned the favor this weekend. SM 5-7.
Buffalo +14.5

New England absolutely dismantled the Bills. This would have been a loss even if the spread was 45! The Bills should have stayed in bed and sent a high school team in their place. They couldn't have done worse. SM 5-8.

That's it. A bad week for the usually dependable SM. Well, as a great man once said, "life ain't easy and life ain't free". Yeah, I didn't understand it either.

Pick of the Litter

Here are the picks for Sunday. You know the drill. Back to the SM this week.

Baltimore +3

Atlanta +3
Miami +10

Carolina +10

Houston +1
Arizona +3.5

Detroit +3
Kansas City +14.5

San Diego +3

Oakland +5.5

NY Jets +9.5
Chicago +5.5

San Francisco +3

Washington +10.5

Buffalo +14.5

Enjoy the weekend everyone.

High Noon

Barry Bonds was indicted yesterday by a federal grand jury on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. This is the culmination of a four year investigation into the Balco doping scandal and Bonds' connection to the former San Francisco lab.

It seems a roundabout way to get to Bonds (like getting Al Capone for not filing his taxes), but he was granted immunity from prosecution for actually taking steroids when he orginally testified in the Balco case. In fact, if Bonds hadn't allegedly lied in his testimony, he would not be facing federal charges. There is also still the possibility that Bonds will be indicted on tax evasion charges stemming from unreported income from baseball memorabillia shows.

So where does this leave Mr. Bonds? He faces the remote possibility of decades in jail if he is found guilty of all the charges against him. There isn't a team that would sign him while he has the cloud of possible jail time hanging over him. For now his last home run on 2007 may in fact be his last home run for a while, maybe forever. This indictment comes a year too late for Bud Selig, who would have been happy to suspend Bond while this situation played itself out in the courts. He would have had his fingers crossed that Bonds was convicted and served time, so that Hank Aaron's record could have been preserved. The home run record does belong to Bonds now and no one can take that away.

He is a man currently in limbo however. He has more than enough money to assemble the best team of lawyers possible to combat these charges. I would think that it would be a long shot for Bonds to do any time based on this indictment. The only thing that could make jail time a reality for Bonds is if his personal trainer were to testify against him. Bond's trainer Greg Andserson has spent the better part of the last 18 months in prison because he refused to give testimony to the Grand Jury that was considering the Bonds case. He could singlehandedly prove the states case against Bonds by admitting that he not only provided illegal steroids to Bonds, but injected him with the substances as well. And that Bonds knew exactly what was being done. But being stuck in jail for months on end has done nothing to make him more talkative to date. I can't imagine that he would begin to talk any time soon, especially now since he has been released from prison. The Grand Jury session has ended, so he is no longer in violation of their order to provide testimony. If Bonds actually goes to court, however he will be once again ordered to testify. If he refuses at that point, he will probably be held in contempt of court and shipped off to jail once again.

It's amazing to me that Bonds has engendered such loyalty in an ex-employee. There are others who will be willing to testify to Bonds' drug use. His ex-girlfriend has already given numerous interviews where she detailed some of his drug use and she would also be a main witness against Bonds if he were ever brought up on tax evasion charges. Bonds' attorneys will argue that her testimony is tainted because of the acrimonious break up between the two, but it will be up to a jury to decide who to believe at that point.

I predict that Bonds will actually walk on these charges unless Greg Anderson does a 180. Money can't buy you innocence in the eyes of the public, but can buy you reasonable doubt in front of a jury. Even with a not guilty verdict however, I don't beleive that he will be playing baseball anytime in the near future and almost certainly not in a major league baseball uniform. If he is hell bent on continuing his baseball career, he may find an easier time of things in Japan, but if I were a betting man (and I've told you time and time again that I'm not) 762 is probably the number that Arod will have to beat to become the all time home run king.

I Don't Know Why You Say Goodbye...

In a stunning turnaround, it now appears that Alex Rodriguez will be playing in pinstripes after all. The news broke yesterday that Arod and the Yankees had been in meetings to work out a deal after Arod had "reached out" to the Yankees through a third party to express his interest in remaining with the team. The Yankees had flatly stated that if Arod opted out of his contract that they would not pursue him as a free agent. Of course nothing was written in stone. And now that Arod has come back to negotiate exclusively with the Yankees, all seems to be forgiven.

According to "inside sources" Arod was not happy with the way things have gone for him. He didn't expect the Yankees to stand firm on their promise not to deal with him and he didn't expect the public backlash that has accompanied his free agency. It really baffles me that someone as seemingly intelligent as Arod could allow something like this to happen, which is why I think this was planned all along. Boras realized that there wouldn't be much of a market for Arod and devised this plan to get the Yankees to pony up more than the $220 million they would have originally brought to the table. Boras' plan all along was to get Arod a $300 million contract. He knew that the only team that could really commit that kind of money to Arod was the Yankees. So in order to get them to up their offer and without making Arod seem like all he cared about was money, he decided to play the bad cop to Arod's good cop.

He has manipulated the press at every turn and his plan has worked to perfection. He put out the press release about Arod opting out at the most inappropriate time. He has been the only one talking about Arod and about how much money he was worth to a team. He has been the only one making any statements to the press. Arod has been silent during this entire saga. The first thing we hear from Arod is when he put out a statement on his website about how much he and his wife love NY and that they are discussion with the Yankees about their future. Arod can now be seen as someone who was led astray by the big bullying agent. He really wanted to come back to the Yankees all along. But now instead of a eight year extension for $220 million, he will now get a 10 year $270 million contract with incentives that would push the deal to over $300 million. It's perfect, Arod and Boras get what they want and the Yankees get what they need.

Arod will now be able to say that it wasn't all about money. He really loves the Yankees and they were indeed the only team he wanted to play for. Boras gets to trumpet in the press that he had deals on the table for more money (without ever naming names of course), but his client went with his heart. It's the perfect fairly tale ending (wink, wink). Of course it's all a bunch a bullshit, but the Yankees will play along because they know that they don't really have a viable option at third base. They know that they need Arod just as much as he needs them. Arod will return to NY and continue his assault on the record books and perhaps win a World Series or two along the way and this episode will be forgotten.

This whole thing has been media manipulation pure and simple; Brian Cashman knows it, Hank Steinbrenner knows it, Arod knows it, Boras knows it and the American people know it. In the end it's not going to make any difference though. Everyone will be all smiles at the press conference. Arod will smile and talk about how this whole situation was a misunderstanding and it wasn't about the money. Cashman will smile and say that they got the deal that they always wanted. Hank Steinbrenner will smile (okay maybe not him) and talk about how the Yankees maintained their integrity. And somewhere in the background, Scott Boras will be laughing his ass off.

Catch Me If You Can

In the end, the Yankees had no choice. They ended up giving Jorge Posada a fourth year at $13 million in order to get the contract done. There were no good options in the free agent market and with the Yankees minor league prospects being at least two years away from being ready, they did the only thing they could.

Jorge has said from the beginning that he wanted to stay with the Yankees. He didn't even test his worth on the open market, because at the end of the day, he didn't want to wear another uniform. Now if the the Yankees had stuck to their three year offer, he may very well have listened to what the Mets had to say. Catchers don't have a great history of remaining very productive into their late thirties. In fact the history of catchers who have done that is exactly one player long, Carlton Fisk. That's it. The Yankees have their fingers crossed that Posada, who is coming off a career year (in which he hit 60 points over his career average), is going to join Fisk on that short list.

I've read the articles praising Posada as the heart and soul of team or the quiet leader or even a boarder line hall of famer. I've never thought of him as any of those things. I'm not even sure what being the heart and soul of a team means. He has certainly been pretty quiet and unless he turns into Mike Piazza in his prime over the next four years, then he'll be buying a ticket for Cooperstown like the rest of us mere mortals. Posada can also be a bit prickly with pitchers. Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are just a couple examples of pitchers who preferred to have someone else behind the plate. He's a below average defensive catcher, who is not particularly adept at blocking balls in the dirt (see game 2 against Cleveland as an example). He has an above average arm, but overall his defense is not going to win you many games.

His defense is not the reason why he just got $52 million from the Yankees however. Posada has been one of the top offensive catchers in baseball for the past seven years. The Yankees are gambling that he can remain in upper echelon of catchers for at least the next couple of years. As we have seen by the Yankees inability to find a back up catcher for Posada, there is not an abundance of catchers who can hit. In fact, the other good offensive catchers have been locked up by their teams for years to come. Joe Mauer in Minnesota (who has been hurt quite a bit), Victor Martinez in Cleveland, Brian McCann in Atlanta are not available on the open market and won't be for some time. The Yankees have some young catchers in their system, but none are considered prime prospects and certainly none are ready for the majors.

In giving Posada a fourth year, the Yankees have no doubt put themselves in a situation where they will be paying for diminished production as time goes on. However, they did not have a realistic option. It was either pay Posada, or go into next season with a huge hole in the lineup. Given the fact that they already have a huge hole with the loss of Arod, they couldn't afford to lose Posada as well. Even at $52 million, the Yankees have to feel like it's money well spent.

High Steppin'

This weekend's recap:

Tennessee -4 Jacksonville

The Titans continue to amaze me with their ability to win games despite the fact that Vince Young seems to have forgotten that the forward pass is actually a component of the offense in the NFL. Jacksonville is still relying on their back up, since their starting QB is out for a while. The SM says take Jacksonville. I hate to rely on Vince, but I'm going to say roll the dice and pray that Vince has a good day. Titans 24-10.
Wow, I couldn't have been more wrong. This really is the last time I pick Vince Young for anything. From now on Vince Young, you are my enemy. I tried to play nice but clearly that's not what you wanted. You'll rue the day you crossed me! Me 0-1. SM 1-0.

Kansas City -3 Denver
KC got destroyed by the Packers last week at home. The Broncos got destroyed on the road by Detroit. Neither of these teams is very good and not having Larry Johnson for the game isn't going to help the Chiefs any. This really doesn't make much sense but I'm going to stick with the SM on this one. Denver 31-24.

I lucked into a win here. Both teams still suck. Me 1-1. SM 2-0.

Buffalo -3 Miami
Miami may not win another game this year. They are that bad. Buffalo beat the Bengals at home last week and actually showed that they do indeed have an offense. The SM says take Miami, but I can't make myself put any faith in that team. Buffalo 21-3.

This is the proverbial kissing of your sister. Buffalo's offense went back into hibernation, but they did manage to squeeze out a win with a stirring 11 point 4th quarter. Wow, I'm getting chills just writing about it. Me 1-1. SM 2-0.

Pittsburgh -9.5 Cleveland
Pittsburgh put a hurtin' on the Ravens last week, but I really don't see the Browns being as easy to push around. This looks like a SM special. Pittsburgh 34-28.

It took a late rally by Pittsburgh to pull this one out and I look like a genius for one pick. The final score was actually 31-28, but let's not split hairs on this one. Me 2-1. SM 3-0.

New Orleans -11.5 St. Louis
The Saints appear to be back on track. At this point they are playing like a well oiled machine. The Rams are bad. In fact calling them bad may be an insult to bad teams. They are coming off a bye week though, so at least they should be fairly healthy. That hasn't helped them so far and I don't anticipate a change this week. The SM says take the Rams, but I'm heading the other way. Saints 44-14.

Now I look like an idiot. The Saints scored 29 points but managed to give up 37 to a really bad St. Louis team. I'm not sure how that happened, but this will just show you boys and girls that gambling is no way to make a living. Unless you follow the SM that is. Me 2-2. SM 4-0.

Carolina -4 Atlanta
Two more bad teams. Atlanta pulled out a win last week at home, Carolina lost to the offensive juggernaut that is the Titans. The Panthers are 4 point favorites, I guess on the strength of being the home team. I'm sticking with the SM on this one. Atlanta 21-17. On a side note, why the hell is Vinny Testaverde still in the NFL. He's actually older than me. And trust me when I say that I shouldn't even be allowed to buy a ticket to an NFL game. I find it hard to believe that there isn't a QB available that was born after man first walked on the moon. Oh well, I digress.

Atlanta pulls this one out to continue the perfect week for the SM. I am struggling to stay above .500, but as I've said many times, no one has ever confused me with a rocket scientist. Me 3-2. SM 5-0.

Washington -3 Philadelphia
The Redskins at home only giving three points to a terrible Eagles team. Am I missing something here? I know this is a rivalry game, but the Eagles got doubled up at home by the Cowboys last week. This spread looks like a mistake to me. The SM says the Eagles, but I couldn't disagree more. Redskins 34-21.

Washington at home loses to a reeling Eagles team? This is why I hate both of these teams. You can't trust them. The Redskins, with their ridiculously racist name and the Eagles, with their Chunky soup eating QB, should both burn in hell. That may have been a little harsh, but I'm in a pretty harsh mood today. Me 3-3. SM 6-0.

Green Bay -6 Minnesota
Adrian Peterson put on a display for the ages last week in breaking the single game rushing record. Of course that was at home in a dome on AstroTurf. However he did run for 224 yards at Chicago. He followed up that outburst with two sub 100 yard games in back to back losses. I predicting the same pattern here. Expect GB to score early and the Vikings to be pressed to pass. The SM says take the Vikings. I'm going to disagree and say take the Pack 27-17.

This was even more one sided than I expected and with Petersen going down to injury early, the Vikings apparently just threw the playbook out the window. This is the first loss for the SM this week, but I hear the SM is doing well and will recover from this setback. Me 4-3. SM 6-1.

Baltimore -4 Cincinnati
Both of these teams let me down last week. I picked them both to cover the spread and neither of them did. So what to do this week? My only fallback here is that Steve McNair is my fantasy QB (ok, stop laughing). I guess I have to pick the Ravens to win but I'm thinking the SM works here. Ravens 17-14.
Okay, technically a win, but I can't feel good about it. The Bengals dominated the Ravens and Steve McNair joins Vince Young on my hit list. How the hell does a QB produce back to back negative point games? It' unheard of I tell you! I take this as a personal attack on me. Steve McNair, please go back to wherever you came from and take Vince Young and Chad Pennington (my other disappointment at fantasy QB) with you. Me 5-3. SM 7-1.

Chicago -3.5 Oakland
What the hell happened to Chicago? Their once proud defense has given up over 30 points on a couple of occasions this season. They have held their last two opponents to 16, so maybe they are having a mid season renaissance. Oakland at least seems to have found a running game, even if they can't seem to find a competent QB. I'll stick with the SM on this one. Chicago 13-10.

This was looking great for me. It was tied at 3 heading into the 4th quarter and then Chicago decides to score two touchdowns to make me look foolish. Well, Chicago isn't even the "second city" anymore. So who looks foolish now, huh? Me 5-4. SM 7-2.

Dallas -1 NY Giants
I can't in good conscience pick this game. My heart says the Cowboys, the SM says the Giants. In order for the Giants to cover the spread they have to win the game and I can't be a party to that. I'm going against the SM and picking the Cowboys, but unless they win, I won't be counting this one against my record (my picks, my rules).

The Cowboys came into New York and gave the Giants a beating. They are the best team in the east and maybe the best team in the NFC. It's been a long time since I could say that. Of course I probably just jinxed them for the rest of the season. But considering the fact that Bill Parcells isn't there anymore, they actually might be able to win a couple of games after thanksgiving. Me 6-4. SM 7-3.

Arizona -1 Detroit
I don't think much of the Cardinals. Detroit has been much tougher at home than on the road, but I still don't see them losing this game. Stick with the SM. Detroit 19-16.

Arizona beat Detroit convincingly. I'm not really sure what happened here. I guess the thing learned from this one is don't bet on Detroit on the road. (It's a good think I don't bet, but I am taking donations to my "save me from losing my stuff to the bookies" fund). Me 6-5. SM 7-4.

Indianapolis -3.5 San Diego
San Diego got crushed by the Vikings last week and gave up a record number of rushing yards. Indianapolis is coming off a crushing home loss to New England. One of these teams is going to have a big rebound. I'm thinking it's going to be the Colts. I'm ignoring the SM and I recommend you do the same. Colts 31-24.

Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions in this game. If this isn't a clear example of organized crime in sports today, I don't know what is. Even with all that help from Peyton, the Chargers could only manage one offensive TD. Peyton was trying his best to give the game away, but the Chargers weren't helping at all. It's a good thing he also had a buddy on the return team to help allow the Chargers to score twice on kick returns. I never want to see another Peyton Manning commercial as long as live (which means I'll either have to stop watching TV or pluck out my eyes. I'm leaning toward the former). Me 6-6. SM 8-4.

A great bounce back week for the SM after posting it's first sub .500 record of the season. As for me, I'm changing my middle name to middling. That's it for this week.

Spreads like Velveeta

This weeks picks are brought to you by the letter F.

Home team in bold:

Tennessee -4 Jacksonville
The Titans continue to amaze me with their ability to win games despite the fact that Vince Young seems to have forgotten that the forward pass is actually a component of the offense in the NFL. Jacksonville is still relying on their back up, since their starting QB is out for a while. The SM says take Jacksonville. I hate to rely on Vince, but I'm going to say roll the dice and pray that Vince has a good day. Titans 24-10.

Kansas City -3 Denver

KC got destroyed by the Packers last week at home. The Broncos got destroyed on the road by Detroit. Neither of these teams is very good and not having Larry Johnson for the game isn't going to help the Chiefs any. This really doesn't make much sense but I'm going to stick with the SM on this one. Denver 31-24.

Buffalo -3 Miami

Miami may not win another game this year. They are that bad. Buffalo beat the Bengals at home last week and actually showed that they do indeed have an offense. The SM says take Miami, but I can't make myself put any faith in that team. Buffalo 21-3.

Pittsburgh -9.5 Cleveland

Pittsburgh put a hurtin' on the Ravens last week, but I really don't see the Browns being as easy to push around. This looks like a SM special. Pittsburgh 34-28.

New Orleans -11.5 St. Louis

The Saints appear to be back on track. At this point they are playing like a well oiled machine. The Rams are bad. In fact calling them bad may be an insult to bad teams. They are coming off a bye week though, so at least they should be fairly healthy. That hasn't helped them so far and I don't anticipate a change this week. The SM says take the Rams, but I'm heading the other way. Saints 44-14.

Carolina -4 Atlanta

Two more bad teams. Atlanta pulled out a win last week at home, Carolina lost to the offensive juggernaut that is the Titans. The Panthers are 4 point favorites, I guess on the strength of being the home team. I'm sticking with the SM on this one. Atlanta 21-17. On a side note, why the hell is Vinny Testaverde still in the NFL. He's actually older than me. And trust me when I say that I shouldn't even be allowed to buy a ticket to an NFL game. I find it hard to believe that there isn't a QB available that was born after man first walked on the moon. Oh well, I digress.

Washington -3 Philadelphia

The Redskins at home only giving three points to a terrible Eagles team. Am I missing something here? I know this is a rivalry game, but the Eagles got doubled up at home by the Cowboys last week. This spread looks like a mistake to me. The SM says the Eagles, but I couldn't disagree more. Redskins 34-21.

Green Bay -6 Minnesota

Adrian Peterson put on a display for the ages last week in breaking the single game rushing record. Of course that was at home in a dome on AstroTurf. However he did run for 224 yards at Chicago. He followed up that outburst with two sub 100 yard games in back to back losses. I predicting the same pattern here. Expect GB to score early and the Vikings to be pressed to pass. The SM says take the Vikings. I'm going to disagree and say take the Pack 27-17.

Baltimore -4 Cincinnati

Both of these teams let me down last week. I picked them both to cover the spread and neither of them did. So what to do this week? My only fallback here is that Steve McNair is my fantasy QB (ok, stop laughing). I guess I have to pick the Ravens to win but I'm thinking the SM works here. Ravens 17-14.

Chicago -3.5 Oakland

What the hell happened to Chicago? Their once proud defense has given up over 30 points on a couple of occasions this season. They have held their last two opponents to 16, so maybe they are having a mid season renaissance. Oakland at least seems to have found a running game, even if they can't seem to find a competent QB. I'll stick with the SM on this one. Chicago 13-10.

Dallas -1 NY Giants

I can't in good conscience pick this game. My heart says the Cowboys, the SM says the Giants. In order for the Giants to cover the spread they have to win the game and I can't be a party to that. I'm going against the SM and picking the Cowboys, but unless they win, I won't be counting this one against my record (my picks, my rules).

Arizona -1 Detroit

I don't think much of the Cardinals. Detroit has been much tougher at home than on the road, but I still don't see them losing this game. Stick with the SM. Detroit 19-16.

Indianapolis -3.5 San Diego

San Diego got crushed by the Vikings last week and gave up a record number of rushing yards. Indianapolis is coming off a crushing home loss to New England. One of these teams is going to have a big rebound. I'm thinking it's going to be the Colts. I'm ignoring the SM and I recommend you do the same. Colts 31-24.

That's it for this week kids. Tune in Monday for the train wreck results. Have a good weekend.

The Sweet Smell of Success

Here's the recap of my picks for the weekend.

Redskins (-3.5) at Jets
The Jets are terrible. They are throwing the untested QB to the wolves and the Redskins have to be pretty pissed off after getting embarrassed by the Patriots last week. The SM says the Jets will cover, I say different. I'm picking the Skins to win 28-10.
See what happens when I go against the SM? I end up looking like an idiot. Maybe that's what I intended all along? I'm hoping to convince someone of this. Anyone, anyone? Bueller? Me 0-1, SM 1-0.

Green Bay at KC (-2)
The odds makers are apparently unimpressed by Green Bay's 7-1 start. Kansas City has been on a roll of late and I believe sit in first place in the AFC least also known as the west. The SM says take Green Bay and so that is exactly what I'm going to do. Green Bay 24-21.
And do you see how smart I look when I let the SM do it's job. Brett Favre is apparently out to show everyone that the Packers are indeed one of the NFC's best teams and at this point I have no reason to doubt him. I still think he's a self absorbed jackass, but he certainly knows how to throw that football around. I'm still waiting on the Dan Marino HBO special celebrating Favre setting the all-time interception record. Me 1-1, SM 2-0.

Arizona at Tampa (-3.5)
Tampa has a pretty porous run defense, so the Edge should have a good week. Kurt Warner has some good weapons to use and he should have a couple of good games left in that arm of his. This one is a SM special. Tampa 17-14.
I guess the SM isn't infallible. Tampa Bay did indeed cover the spread. Why couldn't I have picked this game. Seriously, the sum of my football knowledge could fit in a thimble. I tiny, tiny thimble that only microscopic single celled organisms could use. Me 1-2, SM 2-1.

Carolina at Tennessee (-4)
Carolina's starting QB choices are the ancient Vinny Testaverde and the beaten to a pulp David Carr. The only reason that the spread is so low is that Vince Young seems to have forgotten how to complete a forward pass. Young is also nursing a leg injury, so I don't expect much running from him either. This could be a very low scoring affair. Use the SM here. Tennessee wins 10-7.
How on earth does Tennessee keep on winning with Vince Young throwing for 100 yards a game? I had Vince Young as my starting fantasy QB this year (I know it was a stupid choice, but I missed the live draft, OK? Get off my back. Why can't you ever say anything nice to me?) and he single handedly has relegated me to the lower reaches of the standings. I wouldn't feel so bad about that except the Titans keep on winning in spite of him. This pisses me off to no end. If my team sucks because of him, then his own team should suck too (why doesn't life work the way I want it to?). Me 1-3. SM 2-2.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-3)
Jesus! is it just me or is the NFL just filled with teams that absolutely suck? Wow, you couldn't pay me to watch this game. At least when Atlanta had Michael Vick, it was enjoyable to watch him run around before throwing an interception. Joey Harrington has thrown 4 TDs, 4 picks and has rushed for less than 20 yards. San Francisco gets Alex Smith back this week and that should be enough to put them over the top. Use the SM in this game as well. 49ers 28-12.
This is just getting embarrassing now. I'm going to start using the Mussina rule. The Mussina rule is based on Mike Mussina who blames everything, except that fact that he was terrible, for a loss. I'm going to start with the fact that my computer was acting up. I also had a bad sandwich for lunch. My Lupus was acting up. My girlfriend left me. I ran out of gas. My radiator was overheating. It's not my fault! It's not my fault! How about a little sympathy, people. Me 1-4. SM 2-3.

Jacksonville at New Orleans (-3.5)
Jacksonville released their '06 starting QB in the off-season and lost their '07 starter last week. Now they will be led by someone named Quinn Gray (no, I've never heard of him either). The Saints are actually starting to hit their stride and Drew Brees had a phenomenal game last week against the 49ers. This one has the smell of a blowout. Disregard the SM on this one and take the Saints 31-7.
Wow. Will wonders never cease. This makes it sound like I actually know what I'm talking about. Brees threw for almost 450 yards and the Saints blew out the Jags. I know what you're going to say, that even the sun shines on a dogs ass sometimes. Fine, be that way. You know what screw you. I don't need you or your approval. Maybe if you would have taken me fishing when I was a kid I wouldn't have turned out like this. You only have yourself to blame. Me 2-4. SM 2-4.

Denver at Detroit (-3)
Denver is not the same team outside of mile high stadium (or whatever hell they call their new home), and apparently they aren't the same inside of it either. Detroit has some weapons on offense and they are undefeated at home. I would say that the SM would be good for this one, but I'm thinking of the glory days of Denver. This team has one quality win this year (against Pittsburgh in Denver) and a couple of squeakers against two bad teams (Oakland in OT and a one point win against Buffalo). I'm tempted to pick against the SM here and that exactly what I'm going to do. Detroit 30-20. I know I'm gonna regret that one on Monday.
Two in row! How about that. I'm on a roll. There are so many little people to thank. I'm not sure where to start. First of all I'd like to thank the guy who I buy a banana from every morning. They say that breakfast is the most important meal of the day and that guy makes sure that I get the day off to a good start. Then I'd like to thank...oh to hell with it. It's clear that outside of the fruit guy, this was all me. Kneel before my superiority. Ha, Ha (that's my superior laugh). Me 3-4. SM 2-5.

Cincinnati at Buffalo (pick 'em)
Well the SM is useless here. This situation doesn't come up very often. We have a fairly anemic Buffalo offense against hard to figure out Bengals. The Bengals looked like the best team in football early last season, but have been mediocre every since. They gave up an astonishing 51 points to Cleveland earlier in the season, so we know that they have the ability to give up a lot of points. They also scored 45 points in that game, so we know that they can put points on the board. Their biggest accomplishment this season was holding New England under 40 points. Buffalo has won two fairly low scoring games in a row. The question is whether they can stop the Bengals offense. I'm leaning toward the Bengals in the is game (because I flipped a coin and it came up heads). I say this one goes the way of the tigers 24-13.
And just like that, my winning streak comes to an end. I was on top of the world there for an all too brief time. I was a modern day Icarus and when the sun melted my wings, I fell hard. But to soar above the ground was exhilarating. I only wish that you all could have experienced it with me (not really, but it makes me sound more humble if I say that). Me 3-5. SM 2-5.

San Diego (-7) at Minnesota
San Diego seems to be rolling after an early season hiccup. Minnesota pretty much has one weapon, Adrian Peterson. He has had one incredible game and the Vikings rolled to 34 points. Outside of that they have been fairly pedestrian. The SM says take the home dog, and while I have no reason to think that the game will go that way, who am I to argue. San Diego 30-24.
I get the win here, but I really don't deserve it. Peterson set an NFL record by rushing for 296 yards and the Vikings crushed the Chargers. This isn't like kissing your sister (which is the common analogy for a tie), this is more like rushing out to buy the new Michael Bolton CD. You own it, but it's your dirty little secret. Me 4-5. SM 3-5.

Seattle at Cleveland (-1)
Look how far the mighty have fallen. Just two seasons ago the Seahawks were in the Superbowl, now they are underdogs to Cleveland. The Browns are no longer a pushover and have scored over 40 points in two games this year. I have no reason to believe that Seattle will be able to overcome the Dog Pound. Screw the SM take the Browns 24-13.
Who ever thought that .500 could feel so good? Ah mediocrity, your smell is so sweet that I wish I could bathe in your goodness forever. Me 5-5. SM 3-6.

New England (-5.5) at Indianapolis
Indianapolis 34-31. I think there's been enough written about this game. Plus I really want to be done with this.
Still too much written about this game. The SM prevails. Me 6-5. SM 4-6.

Houston at Oakland (-3)
Oakland's not very good. They've lost three games in a row in fact. Their offense is anemic, although Dante Culpepper is capable of putting up big numbers. Houston also sucks. This is another battle between terrible teams. The NFL seems to specialize in these. Go with the SM. Houston 3-0.
The Texans pulled this game out even though their starting QB was out with an injury. I was right, the Raiders are terrible. The teams did manage to score a lot more points than I thought was possible. On a personal note I picked up the Raiders running back, Justin Fargas, for my fantasy team (who happens to be the son of Huggy Bear of Starkey & Hutch fame), and he ran for 104 yards and a touchdown. I know that no one cares about that particular fact, but if you're reading this blog, I figured that I'd just bore you more than you already are. Me 7-5. SM 5-6.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-9)
Baltimore gets Steve McNair back this week. That's enough for me to endorse the SM pick in this game. Pittsburgh wins a close one 24-21.
I somehow managed to skip the Cowboys game and pick the Monday night game. I assure that this was not my intention. However since I'm now guaranteed a winning week regardless of the outcome of this game, I will now pretend that I did it on purpose (I probably shouldn't have written that). I chose to ignore the Cowboys game because as a fan of the 'Boys, I feel it would be wrong to even guess at the outcome of the game based on the point spread. My only concern is that the Cowboys win the game (of course I would have probably picked the Eagles to cover the spread, because they were at home and the SM would have demanded it). So I'm happy that the Cowboys won and I don't think we need to say any more about that.

The Steelers destroyed the Ravens on Monday Night, but since I never intended to pick the Monday Night game, I'm not going to count this one against my record. What? Does someone have something to say? I didn't think so.

Old Soldiers Never Die

The undefeated Colts (7-0) take on the undefeated Patriots (8-0) on Sunday in the NFL's latest GAME OF THE CENTURY. That showdown headlines the matchups for the weekend. My fellow contributor Bhart has been unable to fulfil his duties as NFL prognosticator for the last couple of weeks, so it's up to me to pick up the slack. Just like MacArthur, I have returned. I will go with a modified SM* this week, meaning that I'll overrule if I think that the pick is blatantly wrong (which probably just means I'll end up with a losing record). Anyway, here goes nothing.

Redskins (-3.5) at Jets

The Jets are terrible. They are throwing the untested QB to the wolves and the Redskins have to be pretty pissed off after getting embarrassed by the Patriots last week. The SM says the Jets will cover, I say different. I'm picking the Skins to win 28-10.

Green Bay at KC (-2)

The odds makers are apparently unimpressed by Green Bay's 7-1 start. Kansas City has been on a roll of late and I believe sit in first place in the AFC least also known as the west. The SM says take Green Bay and so that is exactly what I'm going to do. Green Bay 24-21.

Arizona at Tampa (-3.5)

Tampa has a pretty porous run defense, so the Edge should have a good week. Kurt Warner has some good weapons to use and he should have a couple of good games left in that arm of his. This one is a SM special. Tampa 17-14.

Carolina at Tennessee (-4)

Carolina's starting QB choices are the ancient Vinny Testaverde and the beaten to a pulp David Carr. The only reason that the spread is so low is that Vince Young seems to have forgotten how to complete a forward pass. Young is also nursing a leg injury, so I don't expect much running from him either. This could be a very low scoring affair. Use the SM here. Tennessee wins 10-7.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-3)

Jesus! is it just me or is the NFL just filled with teams that absolutely suck? Wow, you couldn't pay me to watch this game. At least when Atlanta had Michael Vick, it was enjoyable to watch him run around before throwing an interception. Joey Harrington has thrown 4 TDs, 4 picks and has rushed for less than 20 yards. San Francisco gets Alex Smith back this week and that should be enough to put them over the top. Use the SM in this game as well. 49ers 28-12.

Jacksonville at New Orleans (-3.5)

Jacksonville released their '06 starting QB in the off-season and lost their '07 starter last week. Now they will be led by someone named Quinn Gray (no, I've never heard of him either). The Saints are actually starting to hit their stride and Drew Brees had a phenomenal game last week against the 49ers. This one has the smell of a blowout. Disregard the SM on this one and take the Saints 31-7.

Denver at Detroit (-3)

Denver is not the same team outside of mile high stadium (or whatever hell they call their new home), and apparently they aren't the same inside of it either. Detroit has some weapons on offense and they are undefeated at home. I would say that the SM would be good for this one, but I'm thinking of the glory days of Denver. This team has one quality win this year (against Pittsburgh in Denver) and a couple of squeakers against two bad teams (Okaland in OT and a one point win against Buffalo). I'm tempted to pick against the SM here and that exactly what I'm going to do. Detroit 30-20. I know I'm gonna regret that one on Monday.

I can't believe that I still have six more games to pick. I think the NFL ought to give some serious thought to contraction. I mean do the Cardinals really deserve to be in the NFL? Or Detroit for that matter. New rule, if you haven't ever been to the Superbowl, you don't get to have an NFL team. I'll give a break to the expansion teams, but if your franchise existed when the Superbowl was created and you still haven't made it, you don't deserve to be in the NFL. I'll pass that recommendation along the commissioner. Alright back to the never ending picks (unlike the neverending story, which clearly made a promise to me (that they broke along with my heart) when I entered the theater that the movie would never end, this is not a legally binding promise).

Cincinnati at Buffalo (pick 'em)

Well the SM is useless here. This situation doesn't come up very often. We have a fairly anemic Buffalo offense against hard to figure out Bengals. The Bengals looked like the best team in football early last season, but have been mediocre every since. They gave up an astonishing 51 points to Cleveland earlier in the season, so we know that they have the ability to give up a lot of points. They also scored 45 points in that game, so we know that they can put points on the board. Their biggest accomplishment this season was holding New England under 40 points. Buffalo has won two fairly low scoring games in a row. The question is whether they can stop the Bengals offense. I'm leaning toward the Bengals in the is game (because I flipped a coin and it came up heads). I say this one goes the way of the tigers 24-13.

San Diego (-7) at Minnesota

San Diego seems to be rolling after an early season hiccup. Minnesota pretty much has one weapon, Adrian Peterson. He has had one incredible game and the Vikings rolled to 34 points. Outside of that they have been fairly pedestrian. The SM says take the home dog, and while I have no reason to think that the game will go that way, who am I to argue. San Diego 30-24.

Seattle at Cleveland (-1)

Look how far the mighty have fallen. Just two seasons ago the Seahawks were in the Superbowl, now they are underdogs to Cleveland. The Browns are no longer a pushover and have scored over 40 points in two games this year. I have no reason to believe that Seattle will be able to overcome the Dog Pound. Screw the SM take the Browns 24-13.

New England (-5.5) at Indianapolis

Indianapolis 34-31. I think there's been enough written about this game. Plus I really want to be done with this.

Houston at Oakland (-3)

Oakland's not very good. They've lost three games in a row in fact. Their offense is anemic, although Dante Culpepper is capable of putting up big numbers. Houston also sucks. This is another battle between terrible teams. The NFL seems to specialize in these. Go with the SM. Houston 3-0.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-9)

Baltimore gets Steve McNair back this week. That's enough for me to endorse the SM pick in this game. Pittsburgh wins a close one 24-21.

That's it for the week. As I've stated in the past, my expertise lies between the white lines of a baseball diamond, so I wouldn't go taking out a second mortgage to lay down bets based on my picks. I'll be back on Monday to give you the rundown of my shame.

*The SM (patent pending) picks the underdog to cover the spread in every game and has a winning percentage pushing 60% (Unsubstantiated claim. The Speigler Method has never been studied by an independent lab, Government Scientists, God, Man or Yale. Therefore I will not accept your card and letters complaining about said method).

Last Line of Defense

This is the last time I write something defending Arod (I think), but Murray Chass of the NY Times couldn't help but get a parting shot at him. He wrote,

"If there is a team considering pursuing Rodriguez, it should remember that he has never played in a World Series, and he was a major reason his team didn’t get there the past three seasons."

Arod played an essential role in getting the Yankees to post season in the last three years. Remember that we are talking about, not one, but two MVP seasons in the last three years. If you don't get to the playoffs, you don't even get a chance to compete for the World Series. He certainly should shoulder some of the blame for the Yankees not advancing beyond that ALDS for the last three years, but without him there's a good chance that at least one, if not two of those three playoff appearances don't even happen. I think Chein Ming Wang giving up 12 runs in 5 innings had something to do with the Yankees losing to the Indians in their most recent trip to the playoffs. Arod played here for four years and the Yankees didn't win the World Series which is too bad for Yankee fans, but he is not the only or major reason for that.

I'm A Travelling Man

Scott Boras announced to the world last night that Arod will indeed be opting out of his contract with the Yankees. The Yankees, who were preparing a mega deal for Arod, were not even given the chance to present an offer to him. The fact that Boras chose to make the announcement on the same night that the Red Sox won the series (thereby hogging the press coverage), is typical of the agent who doesn't care about the game, he only cares about the money. And in the end, I guess that's what an agent is supposed to care about. The press is vilifying Boras and Arod for the timing of the announcement, but Boras knew that doing it last night would get maximum press coverage. Peter Gammons was doing actually doing commentary about Arod decision on the field, while the Red Sox celebrated in the background.

As I said in one of my previous emails regarding Arod, this decision wouldn't be made based on money. He may get more money from another team, but the difference really isn't going to be that substantial. His decision isn't based on the "uncertainty surrounding the team" as Boras put it. Or because he didn't know who the next manager would be, or because he thought the Yankees wouldn't put a quality product on the field next year. He just didn't want to play for the Yankees anymore. Plain and simple. It could have been because of his up and down relationship with the fans, the pressure that he felt to produce, the non stop coverage by the press, his frosty relationship with Derek Jeter, or the expectations that were placed upon him, but whatever the ultimate reason, it all adds up to the same thing.

Arod will pack his bags once again and hit the road and bring with him the promise of greatness. He will sit in another press conference and proclaim that this is his final destination, that he never wants to wear the uniform of another team and that he finally feels like he's home. He will say all the things that the press and fans in his next city will want to hear. The only issue I have with Arod is that I know the speech is already written. Perhaps Arod will end up in Chicago with Lou Pinella where he may be the answer to the long suffering Cubs. He may go the Angels, whose owner has long coveted Arod. He may even end up in Boston, who only have to carry Manny's $20 million contract for one more season. I really have no idea where he'll go, but someone is going to pay a lot of money for the right to watch Arod make an assault on the all time home run record.

I personally bear no ill will toward Arod. It's been a treat to watch one of the greatest players of all time on a day to day basis. He almost single-handedly kept the Yankees afloat for the first half of this season and his play down the stretch in '05 was the difference in the Yankees winning another divisional crown. I have spent a lot of time in this forum defending him from his numerous critics and I regret none of it. His four year stretch was the best individual performance that I've ever seen by a Yankee player (and I've been watching since the 70's). He showed up everyday and did his job well. That's about all you can ask from a player. I don't know what he was like on the bench or in the clubhouse, but when he had a bat in his hands, he was the best player in the game.

So as Arod leaves New York, I wish him good look in his search. I'm not sure what he's looking for, but apparently he didn't find it here. The fans in his new city are in for a treat. He is without a doubt, a once in a generation type of player. And maybe, if he's lucky, his next stop will provide him with something that money can't buy. It may provide him with a place he can call home and actually mean it.

Ride 'Em In

The World Series starts tonight, so I guess it's time for me to make a prediction. My success rate dropped to 50% in the last round. That's a 50% decrease from the first round. If my current pattern holds, then I should get this one wrong. We've got the miracle Rockies against the team with the best record in baseball. The Rockies shouldn't be here. They were dead in the water with 2-1/2 weeks to go in the season. There were a couple of times when the all times saves leader had a chance to end their season and he failed on both occasions. They have stormed through the playoffs and now stand on the verge of the accomplishing the greatest late season run in the history of baseball. All that stands in their way is the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox who were embraced as underdogs in '04 have now become part of the aristocratic class of baseball along with the Yankees. They are no longer lovable losers (I think the Cubs still hold that title), but a perennial powerhouse. To fans of the Rockies, I'm sure the Red Sox look like the evil empire. The Red Sox are the team with the payroll that dwarfs the competition. The Red Sox are the team that has had post season success. The Red Sox are the one's with the national fan base. For all intents and purposes, the Red Sox have become what they once detested and they are convinced that they have done right. The Rockies are the underdogs in the series. They are the little guys going up against the corporate giant. They are the real life Rudy.

On paper, this series looks like a mismatch. As we all know however, the games aren't played on paper. The Rockies are the hottest team on the planet. I thought that the long delay after the NLDS would effect them, I was wrong. So I don't think that the long delay will have any effect on them this time either. The Red Sox are coming off a huge comeback win against the Indians and are feeling pretty good about themselves as well. Both teams have had enough rest to set up their rotations for the Series. Josh Beckett is pitching about as well as any pitcher has in recent post season history. He will start game one and he is as close to a guaranteed win as exists. If he wins the first game, it will put the Rockies in unfamiliar territory. It's been weeks since they lost their last game. The question will be whether they can bounce back from that initial blow. I just don't think that they are going to be able to. I'm calling this one for the Red Sox in six games.

And there you have it. My pick to win it all is the Boston Red Sox. They will be the only team to win multiple titles in the new century and can now lay claim to being the new super power in baseball.

Ladies and Gentlemen...The New York Darkies

I'm not one for political correctness and this really isn't about that, but the logo of the Cleveland Indians has to go. How has this symbol not been replaced? How is this different from the stereotypical images perpetuated by performers who used to appear in blackface for a hundred years? The Indians say that their name was changed in 1915 to honor the first native American to play in the majors. I personally find that hard to believe, but if that's their story, I'll take them at face value. What I do have a problem with is their depiction of "Chief Wahoo" as a grinning red skinned indian. I don't care what their original intent was, that caricature should be offensive to almost anyone who views it.

The position of those who want to keep the logo as it is, reminds me of the postition taken by those who wanted to keep the confederate flag as part of the state flags of southern states. People argued that it was there to remind them of their southern heritage, rather than a reminder of slavery and oppression. The truth was that the "stars and bars" were added to most of the state flags as show of defiance when the civil rights laws were enacted in the sixties. The people who were defending the flag felt like they were under attack by outsiders, so they took a position that was basically indefensible because they didn't feel like they should be told what to do. The people who defend the Chief Wahoo logo probably feel the same way. They feel like they are under attack from the "political correctness police" and so they have become more entrenched in their position, regardless of how objectively indefensible it may be.

Using Chief Wahoo to honor the American Indian makes as much sense as the Yankees being renamed the "Darkies" and using a grinning blackface image to honor the contribution of African-Americans. Or how about the New York Paddys, with a caricature of a drunk irishman with a big red nose and a bottle of booze in his hands? Or how about the New York Mafia, with a picture of a Italian man with a machine gun in his hands as the logo?

Can I Have This Dance...

The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are about to begin their high stakes game of Chicken that will ultimately lead to Arod signing a mega deal with the team or taking his chances on the open market. His agent, Scott Boras, has been in spin mode since well before the Yankees season ended and he has now kicked the spin into high gear. He's been talking about the Arod's value to the Yankees and to their regional sports network YES, and claiming that Arod is the reason that the network's value has tripled since he's been on the team. He is also claiming the Yankees boost in attendance can be directly traced to Arod. I believe that he even floated a figure of $40 million a year as reasonable for his client. His latest release to the press stated that the loss of Joe Torre and the accompanying turmoil may play a factor in Arod's decision.

While all of Boras' arguments are fairly transparent, his claim that the loss of Joe Torre will have an effect of Arod's decision may be the most laughable. Just last year, Torre dropped Arod to 8th place in the playoffs against Detroit and refused to defend him in a Sports Illustrated article. To think that Arod would hinge his decision on whether to come to the Yankees based on Torre's presence is a joke. While I'm sure that Arod and Torre were able to coexist peacefully in the clubhouse, to call their relationship warm, would probably be stretching the truth. During all of Boras' pronouncements, we have yet to hear a peep out of Arod. I'm sure this is all part of the grand scheme orchestrated by Boras to keep the Yankees guessing as to his real intentions.

Boras has a history of pushing the clock on negotiations. Just last winter he kept the Red Sox guessing about whether Matsusaka would sign a contract. In fact, in the end, it was Matsusaka who made the deal happen. He wanted to play for the Red Sox and so he took the last deal that was offered. Arod is in much the same position. The Yankees have stated publicly on various occasions that they will not pursue Arod if he chooses to opt out of his contract. They have said that they are simply unwilling to leave the money that the Texas Rangers are obligated to pay Arod over the next three seasons on the table. The Yankees will almost certainly offer Arod a long term extension in the $30 million neighborhood. The question is whether Arod wants to play for the Yankees or whether he would prefer to play somewhere else. In the end, it won't be about the money, but about Arod's comfort level with the city.

He may indeed get slightly more money over the next three seasons if he opts out of the Yankee deal (which will pay him $25 million a season), but over the life of the contract, the money will be fairly close. We may be talking about the difference between $240 and $250 million. It's a difference to be sure, but how much will that really matter to someone in Arod's position? We are about to find out. A lot of people have labeled Arod as a player who is only chasing money, but the difference in what he was offered (during his last foray into the free agent market) by his old team (Seattle) and the team he ended up on (Texas) was staggering ($90 million Vs. $250 million). He really had no choice but to take the offer from Texas. His stated reasons for moving were not believable (they were building a winning franchise, great atmosphere, etc.). He simply should have said what everyone knew, he went there for the money. I mean who could really blame him? He was singled out as the example of the greedy ballplayer anyway, so being honest couldn't have really hurt him much.

His situation with the Yankees is going to be much different. Arod knows that the Yankees are a franchise that is committed to winning and one that will spend money in order to guarantee a competitive product on the field every year. To walk away from the Yankees when they will make a great financial offer and practically guarantee a shot at the playoffs every season, would be an absolute repudiation of the team and the city. Perhaps he really hated his time here. The Yankee fans were certainly unkind at times and the papers here have followed his personal life with the reckless abandon. I certainly wouldn't hold it against him if he decided that he'd rather pursue his baseball life in another city as long as he was honest about the reasons for leaving.

I've always thought that the biggest problem with Arod connecting with the fans is that almost everything that comes out his mouth seems to be planned. He never really seems to speak from his heart. New Yorkers especially love an athlete who wears his heart on his sleeve. Arod is the definition of "maintaining an even strain". The Yankee fans were much kinder to Arod this year because of the phenomenal numbers that he produced, but I don't think that they really identify with Arod or truly embrace him. The contract is one of the reasons, but the other is that people perceive him as a player who keeps his distance from the fans. Arod is just a private person. It's the same kind of quality that Joe DiMaggio had, but in those days, baseball fans weren't privy to comings and goings of their stars. The majority of fans had no idea what a prickly and private person DiMaggio was. The press perpetuated his image by talking about how classy DiMaggio was. His teammates may have had a different opinion of him, but that was never conveyed to the public. There was no SI article talking about his relationship with his teammates. They looked at the numbers he produced and his on field demeanor and turned him into an icon. If Arod had been a star during those days, he may be viewed differently by the public, but given today's access and never ending stream of press, Arod is not viewed in that light.

I really have no idea what Arod's decision is going to be, but Yankees have about 3 weeks left to negotiate exclusively with him. I can assure you that in that time we are going to get a lot more from Scott Boras and probably very little from the only person who already knows whether the Arod show will continue on Broadway or whether it will be hitting the road again.

The Time of Your Life

The Yankees made an offer to Joe Torre yesterday that they knew he would have to refuse. They offered him a base salary that was 30% below what he made this year. A year in which he led the Yankees from 14-1/2 games out of first to within sniffing distance of the division title and to their 13th straight playoff appearance. The Yankees offered him performance bonuses and a vesting option for one more year if he made the World Series. Joe turned them down. He left a potential $16 million on the table because he didn't think that after all he had done for the Yankees that he deserved to be treated like a salesman working for a bonus. Joe managed to leave the Yankees with the same dignity and grace that he has displayed over his past 12 years at the helm of the world's most famous team.

The Yankees probably felt they had no choice but to offer a contract to Torre. Before Torre arrived the Yankees had been to the post season just once in 14 years. The tradition of winning championships was a distant memory. When he took the reigns of the team, there were 21 year old Yankee fans who would have had no memory of the team ever winning a World Series. Joe changed all that. His teams won an amazing four titles in five years. Now there are 18 year old fans who believe that the Yankees being in the playoffs is their birthright. Ultimately Joe Torre became a victim of his own success. He had been unable to get the Yankees out of the first round of the three years in a row and ownership finally decided that it was time to make a change. Regardless of George Stienbrenner's proclamation that Joe wouldn't be back if the Yankees didn't beat the Indians, it would have been almost inconceivable for the Yankees not to make an offer to the most successful manager of modern times. They knew that the offer would have to be substantial and they knew that it would have to molded in such a way that Torre would have no choice but to turn it down.

Offering an incentive based contract is a first in baseball as far as I know. I don't remember another manager being offered incentives based on how far a team gets in the playoffs. Players often have incentive clauses in their contracts for winning awards and of course there are tens of thousands of dollars in playoff bonuses if their teams advance. But managers usually don't have that kind of contract. They may have a bonus clause if they win manager of the year, but I don't know if they have bonus clauses (especially for $3 million) for winning in the playoffs. Anyway, the base salary was always going to be a sticking point and the Yankees knew this. They knew that Joe Torre could never accept a pay cut. They knew that he would have no choice but to turn down the offer and head back home. They also knew that they could then tell Yankee fans that they had tried to resign Joe. They had made a good faith effort, they had even offered him more money than he made this year. They had done everything possible to try and retain Joe, but in the end he had decided to move on.

I know that some fans will buy the explanation. After all how can someone who is struggling every day to feed their family feel bad about a man who turns down a guaranteed contract of $5 million? But I have a feeling that many of those working class people will feel bad for Joe. Joe's a New Yorker, he speaks the same language that many of the fans do. He grew up going to Yankee stadium. He was actually at the perfect game that Don Larsen threw in the '56 World Series. The Yankees haven't won the Series for seven years, and while the fans will bitch and moan about that, they will not forget the magical ride that the '96-'00 team took this city on. And Joe Torre was at the helm of that team.

It is now officially the end of the Joe Torre era and the beginning of the Don Mattingly? era. It doesn't really matter who takes over the managerial seat for the Yankees. I can guarantee you that the Yankees won't have another era like this one. The Yankees were the only playoff team to repeat an appearance from last year. With revenue sharing and TV money the era of parity has reached the major leagues. The Yankees still have the highest payroll and enough talent to compete for the playoffs for the conceivable future, but they will not be making the playoffs for the next 12 years in a row. A year will come when the Yankees get off to a slow start and they don't stage a huge turnaround in the second half. A year will come when age, injury or just simple bad luck will catch up with them. I don't know who the manager will be then, but all the papers in town will wax poetic about the glory days when the Yankees made the playoffs every year. They'll long for those days and they'll long for Joe Torre. And so will the Yankees.

The Morning After

Now that the baseball off-season is upon us (at least upon those of us that are Yankee fans), the task of assessing the past season and deciding what 2008 has in store is at hand. I've already written about what I thought of the season and the team, but there are a lot of choices to made for the Yankees going forward. Let's look at the team position by position:

Catcher:

Jorge Posada had a career year at the age of 36, it didn't hurt that it came during a contract year. Jose Molina provided the Yankees with the first solid back up work since Posada's early years. The Yankees have no choice but to resign Posada. They don't have a big league ready catcher in the minors and there are no attractive free agent choices. Posada has said that he would test the free agent waters, but he really has no desire to leave the Bronx and the Yankees have no desire to see him leave. Catchers usually stop being productive in their mid thirties, but the Yankees have no choice but to sign Posada to a three year contract in the $40 million dollar range. Molina probably wants to be an everyday catcher somewhere, so I don't think the Yankees are going to be able to keep him happy. It looks like they will once again be searching for a competent back up to Posada.

First Base:

Doug Menkekeldlwyzt provided a solid glove and better bat than anticipated at first (although I still think he's best suited as a defensive replacement). Giambi suffered through an injury plagued year and thankfully for the Yankees, 2008 is the last year of his monstrous contract. Also Andy Phillips and Wilson Betament played some first base during the year. The first base situation is really dependent on the Arod situation at third. First is traditionally a power position, but Doug Mendkzekewltz doesn't provide much power. Giambi , when healthy, can provide power, but his defense is more than a little suspect. If Arod is on the team, the Yankees can afford to give up some power at the position, if he's not, then they really need someone to pick up the offensive slack. I know Giambi is going to be on the team in '08, I'm just not sure who else will be joining him.

Second Base:

Robinson Cano overcame a horrible start to hit over .300 again and drive in almost 100 runs. His defense is at times spectacular and at times it looks like he's not really paying attention. Overall though, I think he's one of the better second basemen in the league and he provides the Yankees with a young position player who can anchor the lineup for years to come. He's a number three hitter in the making.

Shortstop:

Derek Jeter was slowed by injuries this year and his usual stellar base running suffered. His range on defense, which has never been great, was even worse this year. His numbers were down from his "should have been MVP" year, but he still scored 100 runs and hit .320. I expect him to bounce back some next year and at least improve his stolen base percentage.

Third Base:

Probably the biggest question mark the Yankees have this offeseason besides Joe Torre is Arod. He can opt out of his contract 10 days after the end of the World Series and his agent Scott Boras and the Yankees will be playing a high stakes game of poker until then. Boras has already floated stories in the press about possible ownership being offered and the staggering figure of $400 million as a possibility. This is really going to come down to whether Arod wants to stay in NY or go somewhere else. I'm sure the Yankees will make him a very lucrative offer (in the $225-$250 million range), so money isn't going to be the issue. Arod has to decide whether he wants to establish his legacy here or not. I still don't know the answer to that one. If were betting on this, I'd say that he signs with the Yankees at 11:59 PM, one minute before the opt out date.

Right Field:

Bobby Abreu, like Cano overcame a horrendous start to post very good numbers. He never got his average above .300, but he did drive in and score over 100 runs. The Yankees have a $16 million option for next year and so they can decide his fate. If the Yankees were to go out and get a center fielder, say Aaron Rowand, I believe that they would let Abreu walk. If they can get Rowland for about $10 million a year, then they could move Melky to RF, improve their defense and save some money. Abreu is a former Gold Glove winner, but in NY he has always seemed to shy away from the walls. He has a good arm, but his range is very limited. In my opinion, the Yankees would be better off getting a cheaper CF and letting Bobby go.

Center Field:

Melky Cabrera established himself as the Yankees CF'er early in season. He also got off to a very slow start, but was a big part of the Yankee resurgence in the second half. He's got a great arm and good range. He's not the most natural CF'er in the game, but he did lead all CF'ers in the majors in outfield assists. I think the team would be best served by moving him to Right Field. He certainly has a RF'ers arm and if he could begin to develop more power, I think he could be fixture out there for many years.

Left Field:

Matsui had a very streaky year at the plate, but did end up with numbers that were fairly representative of his career (25HRs, 100 runs, 100 rbi's). The Yankees began using Johnny Damon in LF on a daily basis as the year wore on and unless they are able to trade Damon, I believe that Matsui will become for the most part, a full time DH. That would mean that Giambi would have to play first to get into the lineup. Perhaps Matsui, Damon and Giambi will become something of a rotating threesome between the three positions. For 2008, I suspect that Damon will get the majority of the time in the LF.

Starting Rotation:

The Yankees have Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlin and Igawa under contract for next year. I'm pretty sure that Clemens won't be back, but I'm thinking that Pettite will exercise his $16 million option and return. That leaves someone out of the mix in the rotation. I happen to think that Kei Igawa can be an effective starter in the majors. He clearly has the ability to strike hitters out (7.1K per 9), but he had control issues. If they can be fixed then I think he might turn out to be a serviceable starting pitcher. It would be a mistake to give up on him, because the Yankees will be relying on three very young pitchers to take the ball every fifth day. While each has shown this year that they can get hitters out, it would be wise to have other options in case they fail to reproduce the work they did in '07. I'm actually pretty excited to see what the Yankees can do with a rotation that would be 80% home grown.

Bullpen:

Rivera was his usual self after a shaky April. He's still one of the best closers in baseball, even if he's not as automatic as he used to be. I don't think the Yankees have a better option. He's been making some noise in the press about maybe not coming back if the Yankees chose not to bring Joe Torre back, but I don't think that's the case. It would take a mind boggling offer from another team to pry him away from the only team he's ever pitched for. The Yankees bullpen problems are with their set up men. Vizciano did a good job, but then got tired in September. Kyle Farnsworth went through a stretch were he seemed to give up at least a run in every appearance. Chamberlin was spectacular, but he'll be on the starting staff. The Yankees really need to look to the free agents to try and fill what appears to be to me, their biggest weakness.

So that's it for the position by position breakdown. I don't see a whole lot of change, except in the outfield. Every year I make suggestions to Brian Cashman about what to do with the team and every year he ignores me. This year will be no different.

Clarity Comes With The Day After, If You Put The Bottle Down.

alcohol is a funny thing. it makes the weak, strong. it makes the meek, proud—sometimes, even boastful. and on occasion, it makes an ordinary man squeeze his nether regions between his legs and don his ex-girlfriend’s thong only to do a rendition of the macarena at 2:45 in morning in front of a full-length mirror, alone.

but enough about me. this is the NFL. this is football. this is my
“its-not-you-it’s-me” session. this is where i come clean, and apologize to all the loyal readers of this blog for leading them astray. so here i go.

if you read no further, i went 6-5. which makes me a winner, despite what my parents have told me for the last 32 years. on with the results.

Minnesota at Chicago (1-0)
“adrian peterson has a career game”. i guess that might have been the understatement of the blog. 224 yrds rushing and 3 TDs eclipsed a 31 year-old rushing record for the vikings. i said take the vikings. the line said take the bears. looks like the football gods smiled upon me.

Miami at Cleveland
 (1-1)
when you’re drinking, sometimes you get up from the table in the middle of a conversation to go to the restroom and come back, only to find out that the conversation has moved on. unfortunately, the whole time you’ve been in the restroom, you’ve been developing an amazing argument. you get back to table, spout off your thesis statement and realize that you’ve missed the train, entirely.

this happened during my cleveland/miami pick. i said greise would have a horrible game. greise wasn’t even in this game. i take full responsibility for this. if you put money on this game because of greise, please contact me. i want to make fun of you in public to divert any attention focused on me.

Washington at Green Bay (no pick, 1-1)
had i (or you) gone with my initial logic, 
this was a solid pick.

Cincinnati at Kansas City
 (no pick, 1-1)
i still firmly believe that they are both losers.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay
 (1-2)
i said superman would “will” them to victory. superman goes out with an injury mid-way thru the 3rd quarter. TB scores 10 pts thereafter, and wins by 3. bummer.

St. Louis at Baltimore
(2-2)
this wasn’t really a fair pick. but i got it none-the-less.

Houston at Jacksonville
(3-2)
the win was right, the points were sooo far wrong, i don’t even want to talk about it. but a win is a win.

Philadelphia at NY jets
 (4-2)
what can i say. J-E-T-S-will-let-u-down, down, down! btw: did anyone else watch sportscenter this weekend when they had kermit the frog doing an interview with jets & eagles fans? was it me, or did kermit sound really weird? they should bring the old guy back that used to do his voice. the new guy is waaay off.

Carolina at Arizona
 (4-3)
i put my faith in warner. he goes out early. and who could’ve predicted testeverde? that’s almost a better story than warner. due to a lack of info, i personally deem this a tie. but money laid is money played. so there you go. honesty. i hope you’re satisfied.

Oakland at San Diego
 (4-4)
“LT fails to live up to the hype once again.” like communism, the designated hitter, and neapolitan ice cream, it made sense in theory, not so much in practice. so who knew? apparently, 98% of fantasy football owners did. count this one a loss.

New England at Dallas (5-4)
“brady is a better field general than romo. moss and owens cancel each other out. folk has a career game.” two out of three ain’t bad. and, apparently, brady is a much better field general than romo—any day of the week and twice on sundays—for now, anyway.

New Orleans at Seattle
 (5-5)
i was wrong. i apologize. i just want to say that in both my fantasy leagues, brees was benched this week. nuff said. i’m done with this.

NY Giants at Atlanta
(6-5)
this was a given…the jet’s lost. but i didn’t expect eli to have 300+ yards. anyway, my pick was right.

well, there you have it. my picks from bosox country. i must say, as i look up from my keyboard, it’s refreshing to see half the bar leave with their rally caps on as cleveland spanked boston 4-2. now if only colorado could win another one. i’d love to talk more about this, but i think i hear the macarena playing…

NFL picks from the bottom of a glass: lost somewhere in america.

there’s a place in America where a kid doesn’t discuss batting averages with his boys as he waits in line to walk through the metal detectors at school. a place where the same kid doesn’t worry about what color hat he has on, and whether he needs to change it before heading to the park in someone else’s turf. yes, somewhere, far, far away from hustle and bustle of midtown traffic a child is playing catch with his father in the backyard, and only thinking one thing:

i hope dad drops one before i do.

the grass is just as green here as it is in Yankee stadium. only the kid doesn’t appreciate it. because grass is supposed to be green where this kid lives, there’s plenty of it, and he’s well aware of it because his one job on Saturday is to mow it.

(cue soft, whiny violin music)

i don’t expect you to understand it. many of you haven’t stepped foot out of Manhattan since Clinton was running things, Cecil Fielder was on first base, and gray’s papaya only charged $1.50 for two dogs and a drink (the recession special was awesome).

sure, you went home for a holiday or two. you spent the time explaining to your aunt Edna that six friends with part-time jobs could never afford a place that big near central park—even if it was rent controlled. and if you’re traveled, you might have even visited someplace you described around the water-cooler as “quaint”. but chances are, you haven’t lived middle America in quite some time.

this is middle America. beaming with values. chock-full of morals. completely devoid of dirt, grit, and struggling passion. i’ve found myself in the middle of it for 345 days, 3 hours, and 17 minutes. and from what i can tell, everywhere but NY is bosox country.

i could continue but since the season is over, here are my NFL picks:

Minnesota at Chicago
this will come down to how well the viking running backs can fare against the bears d-line. duh. vikings come out big. Adrian Peterson has a career game.
the line says bears. smart money is on the vikings (and by smart, i mean slightly inebriated and highly-delusional). but look forward to Robbie Gould having two 50+ yard field goals and possibly a blocked xpa.

Miami at Cleveland
Cleveland is favored. unfortunately, griese has been sucking down cosmo’s since the final game of the ALDS. and we all know what a few days of cosmo-drinking can do to your judgement. one time, i passed out on the f train and woke up in Weehawken. try explaining that one. anyhow, take Miami. they have prettier colors.

Washington at green bay
green bay is 4-1 (they won 80% of their games). the redskins are 3-1 (and only won 75% of their games). i’m no statistician, but 80 is bigger than 75. logic says go with green bay. unfortunately, Favre's cataracts are going to act up and most of his passes are going to be short. i’d put half my money on green bay, half my money on Washington, and just pray for a tie.

Cincinnati at Kansas city
no one wins because they are both losers--regardless of the line.

Tennessee at Tampa bay
whenever you hear the words, “Vince young,” do you also hear Eddie Murphy impersonating a middle-aged, obese woman chanting, “he’s the man, he’s the man, he’s the man?” i guess i’m the only one. despite the odds, take Tennessee. superman will “will” them to victory.

st. Louis at Baltimore
this match up was something i was looking forward to when they released the schedules last year. now, not so much. take Baltimore. take the points. take the game off and spend some time with a loved one. or call your grandma. she hasn’t heard from you for a long time anyway.

Houston at Jacksonville
kubiac is the greatest coach ever. period. elway is proof of that (he won superbowls when kubiac was sending in signals). end of story. unless Houston is on the road, playing a team with only three syllables. jack-son-ville is favored in this one. Jacksonville wins, but only by a field goal. dayne has 100 yards. and some loser proposes to his wife during half-time. unfortunately, she’s stuck in line trying to buy him a chili-dog. “the thought matters” principle is tested and finally breaks, forever ending quips from chip in the mail room. so we got that going for us, which is nice.

Philadelphia at NY jets
when in doubt, take the home team, unless they are playing in another team’s home stadium. yeah, the jet’s are screwed. but look at it this way, 36% of new yorkers won’t be complaining about the Yankees.

Carolina at Arizona
arizona is favored here. if it weren’t for the fact that i really have to go to the bathroom, i’d try to find out why. regardless, kurt warner is starting. this is a guy who bagged groceries to make ends meet for his wife and seven children while he waited for his one shot in the nfl, only to get it, get named nfl mvp twice, and then sent to bench. how can this go wrong for arizona? take them.

Oakland at San Diego
san diego is favored large. but this is the afc west (which used to stand for something). i’m going out on a limb here taking the raiders. btw: LT fails to live up to the hype once again. sit him in your fantasy leagues.

New England at Dallas
Jesus, how many games are there? i’ve been writing for like an hour now. damn. brady is a better field general than romo. moss and owens cancel each other out. folk has a career game. and that’s the problem. the cowboys don’t find the end zone. pats by 7 plus.

New Orleans at Seattle
remember that girl you met at summer camp back in 6th grade? the two of you wrote each other constantly through the ensuing school year? compliments turned into flirtation? pictures were exchanged. yet, you couldn't explain to your buddies why she was always wearing the same outfit? then, summer camp came around again, and you got the courage to sneak out of the cabin, steal a canoe, and head over to the other side of the lake to see her? remember how disappointed you where when you found out she was a boy? yeah, same thing. this match-up had a amazing promise, long, long, ago.

take Seattle, if only because they are home.

NY Giants at Atlanta
i’ve already told you that jets will lose. which means that some NY sports team has to win. the Yankees are done playing for the year. by default, the giants win. Tiki barber steals the show with two off-color comments about the coaching staff.

well, there you have it.

The Show Must Go On

The Yankees are no longer part of the postseason but there are still four teams with a chance to win the big prize. I managed to predict the winners of all the first round series', so flush with success I'm now going to plow ahead to the League Championships. The Rockies and Diamondbacks series starts on Thursday. The Rockies are the hottest team in baseball having won 17 of their last 18 games. The problem that the Rockies have is that the layoff between games is probably going to effect them the most. When a team is hot, the last thing they want is time off. Unfortunately, the Rockies have had a week off. The Diamondbacks are dealing with the same layoff as the Rockies, but my feeling is that it won't affect them as much. The Rockies depend on their offense to lead the way and a hitters timing can suffer greatly by not seeing live pitching for a week. While the Rockies were on a roll last week, I'm not sure if they will be able to rekindle their momentum given the long rest between games. I'm thinking that the difference in this series is going to be pitching and defense. The Diamondbacks have the best pitcher left in NL playoffs in Brandon Webb and their defense has been great all year. I'm picking the Diamondbacks in 5 with Webb winning games 1 and 5.

The Red Sox and the Indians are a little trickier. The Red Sox have playoff proven pitchers in Beckett and Schilling, but the Indians have the two best pitchers in the AL in the second half in Sabthia and Carmona. All four have had stellar starts in the playoffs so far with Beckett and Carmona putting forth dominating efforts. The question is whether Schilling, who has been inconsistent this year, can put together two great starts in this series. The Red Sox offense, with a now healthy Manny, has a potent middle of the lineup. Ortiz, Ramirez and Lowell are the most dangerous threesome left in the playoffs. This series is really going to come down to whether the Indians two great starters can handle the Red Sox three best hitters. The Red Sox also have a huge advantage at the end of the game with Papelbon. So, how does this one turn out? As I started writing this, I was leaning toward the Red Sox. In the middle of writing it, I was leaning toward the Indians. However, I'm going to have to call this one for the Red Sox in six. At the end of the day, I just think that the Red Sox pitching at the end of the game will make the difference. Thinking about Joe Borowski facing Ortiz and Manny at the end of a game should fill every Tribe fan with dread.

That's it on the playoffs for now. I'll be back to pick a winner when the World Series rolls around.