Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Odds and Ends

Just a quick note today. The Yankees playoffs odds are now at 45% and dropping. While they still have the best chance of winning the Wildcard, the Mariners odds are now up to 43% and rising. The Yankees are coming off a disastrous road trip where they got absolutely blown out in two games and compiled a 2-5 record. They now come home to face the Red Sox who have put enough distance between themselves and the Yankees that their odds of winning the division are now over 98%. The Yankees are now only playing for the Wildcard and if they don't start winning again, they will be on the golf course come October.

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Monday, August 27, 2007

The Fish that Saved Pittsburgh

The title of today's article refers to a terrible movie starring Dr. J about a basketball team whose success is determined by mixing the correct astrological signs on the court (An Astrologist by the name of Miss Mona becomes the de facto GM of the team). USA basketball is now in search of the seeming elusive "chemistry" that has eluded it at the last three international tournaments. USA Basketball has only managed a bronze medal at the last two World Championships and the last Olympic games in Greece. While finishing third is not a disaster, it has to be considered a huge disappointment considering that the USA team has, by far, the most talent in the world. The problem has been that the team usually consisted of a group of one-on-one stars who were not used to sharing the ball or working against the zone defenses of the international teams. That was all supposed to fixed by the last World Championships, but the US was once again undone by a zone defense and an inexplicable inability to defend against the high pick and roll.

I thought the last US failure could be placed squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. Defending the pick and roll is one of the fundamentals of the game and the vaunted coaching staff, led by Coach K of Duke, even with its supposed emphasis on defense somehow forgot to prepare the team for the most simple of offensive plays. I have heard little criticism of the coaching (I guess Coach K is beyond reproach), while most of the blame for the loss was placed squarely on the shoulders of the players. I watched those games however and I know for a fact that given a workable defensive scheme, that team would have easily won the gold medal.

So now we come to the current team which is running roughshod through its competition at the FIBA championships. The best teams in the tournament (Brazil, Argentina, Canada) haven't even sent their best players to compete. The US meanwhile has its best players on the floor. The team is without Dwayne Wade, who is recuperating from off season surgery, but he has been replaced by Kobe Bryant, who is making his US international debut. The team has looked great playing against mediocre competition, winning its games by an average of 50 points. I have no doubt that the US will cruise through the tournament and easily qualify for the Olympics. And if there are no injuries among their top players, they will once again send the most talented team in the world to the Olympics. Dwayne Wade will probably replace Mike Miller and the US will be stocked with guard/forwards who are capable of dominating any NBA game.

The problem is that the international game is very different from the NBA. While the NBA puts a premium on breaking down the player in front of you, the international game is all about team play. The US has looked more team oriented in this tournament, but it's easy to look good when they are playing against glorified club teams. When Argentina and Spain put their best players on the floor, the US will not be able to use their superior physical talent to overwhelm the opposition. They have to rely on set plays and defense and that is where they have failed in their previous attempts at gold.

The team really does seem to be committed to defense this time around, but their offense is still predicated on turnovers and open court play. In last night's game, Brazil minimized their turnovers and were very proficient from the 3 point line and managed to stay very close to the US for most of the first half. The US depth eventually wore down the Brazilians and they pulled away early in the second half. That will not be the case against the better international teams. The US is still vulnerable to a team that takes good care of the ball, hit outside shots and can execute set plays on offense. USA basketball can still overwhelm lesser teams with pure athleticism, but that will not be enough to win the gold. They need to find that elusive quality called chemistry (Which in my mind really just means better coaching. Are you listening Coach K?). Perhaps they should consult with Miss Mona. I pretty sure the Pittsburgh Pythons (or Pisces, as they are renamed in the middle of the movie) are out of business.

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Friday, August 24, 2007

Armageddon

I'll begin today with something I wrote back on May 31st:

"The bottom line is that every day is not Armageddon. At some point this season might be a lost cause. But that day is not today and it's not tomorrow either."

Well, I'm here to tell you boys and girls that we've reached that point. The next week will determine whether the Yankees are driving for the playoffs or playing out the string in September. The Yankees currently find themselves 5 games behind the Red Sox and 3 games behind the Mariners in the wildcard (I know it's technically 2 games, but they trail by 3 in the loss column). They start a four game series in Detroit tonight followed by a three game series back at the stadium against the Red Sox. The Yankees have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games and have lost a game to the Sox and two to the Mariners over that stretch. They can ill afford another stretch of mediocrity. They really need to go 5-2 over the next seven games or they can basically forget about winning the division. Current playoff odds give the Yankees a 58% chance of making the playoffs but less than a 10% chance of winning the division. They really need to head into September with no more than a 3 game deficit to stand a chance of overtaking the Red Sox.

The Mariners have been winning games at an almost 70% rate of late. The Yankees cannot rely on a collapse from Seattle to make the playoffs. I had said earlier that the Yankees needed every break to go their way in order to make the playoffs and that still stands. Perhaps the fact that Gary Sheffield is not going to play in their next series is the first of those breaks, but then again perhaps it isn't. Sheffield was playing with an injured shoulder that had severely limited his production. The replacement player, while clearly not as good as a healthy Sheffield, might be more productive in his place. It remains to be seen whether the Yankees have caught a break or not.

The biggest concern for the Yankees right now is the performance of Mike Mussina. His last three outings have resulted in an ERA over 12. Even with the Yankees high powered offense, Mussina has not given the Yankees an opportunity to win. The whispers of Mussina being done have turned into a Greek chorus these days. I am willing to give Mussina some slack though. He has won more games than all but 45 pitchers in the history of the game. He deserves to be given the benefit of the doubt. That being said, if he doesn't straighten himself out by his next start, the Yankees may be forced to turn to someone else. I'm not sure who that would be, but they cannot afford to give away games at this point of the season.

If you've been a regular reader, you know that I'm not one to hit the panic button very often, but the Yankees have reached that point of the season. It really is now or never. After this seven game stretch, the Yankees will have about 30 games remaining in the season and if they find themselves on the outside looking in, it may be time to start thinking about how they make themselves better for '08. I'm not going to give my recommendations at this point. That would make it seem as if I'm giving up on this season, which I am not. The Yankees can still make the playoffs, they can still catch the Red Sox, but it will require some heroic efforts on the part of the players. The next week will show us whether those heroes will indeed appear.

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Monday, August 20, 2007

The Empire Strikes Back

The Yankees have remade their bullpen over the past month and from the small sample that we've seen so far, it seems to be working. At the trade deadline, all the talk was about that fact that the Red Sox had sealed the pennant by trading for Eric Gagne. The Yankees had tried to get Gagne, but the asking price was too high. Gagne was the closer in Texas at the time and is the all time record holder for consecutive saves. Of course he set that record about 5 arm surgeries and 15 trips to the DL ago, but he had put up very good numbers for the Rangers. The Red Sox already had an All-Star set up man in Okajima, but they proceeded to make Gagne their primary set up man. Since taking over that role, he has blown 2 saves, lost another game and has an ERA over 12. It may turn out to be that the best trade the Yankees made at the deadline was in making no deal at all.

The Yankee bullpen, which was woefully mismanaged by Torre at the beginning of the season, may in fact become a strength down the stretch. Joba Chamberlain has electrified Yankee fans with his 99MPH fastball and his 90MPH slider. He has already won over the traditionally hard to please fans and his entry into games is almost as anticipated as Mariano's. Torre has strict guidelines about his use which have become known as the Chamberlain rules. Because he has never been used as a relief before this season, he cannot pitch on consecutive days and he must have the same amount of days of rest as innings pitched. He is projected as a starter next year and the Yankees are doing everything they can to protect his valuable right arm. Edwar Ramirez struck out the side in his first inning of work yesterday and his change up is almost as devestating as Chamberlain's slider. Luis Vizcaino has taken over the primary set up role and has done a stellar job since overcoming his early season over use. Even Kyle Farnsworth has shown signs of life with four consecutive scoreless appearances, including striking out both Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez (the leagues leading hitter) in his last outing.

One of points I made earlier in the season when the Yankees were floundering, was that Torre needed to make better use of his bullpen. He relied on the same people consistently and eventually they wore down. His use of the bullpen this weekend was very judicious and they all did their job. The bullpen went the entire series against the Tigers (who are second only to the Yankees in hitting in the AL) without giving up a run. That speaks volumes to how far they have come in a very short time. Of course this could all turn around against the Angels, but for now they have turned what was a weakness into a strength. Mariano Rivera, uncharacteristically had three subpar performances in a row before righting the ship on Saturday afternoon, but he is still the most imposing figure on the mound in baseball. He is human and he will get beat occasionally, but with a game, series or season on the line, there is no one I would rather see on the mound.

The Yankees still have an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but they certainly seemed better armed than they were just a month ago. Four games doesn't seem like all that daunting a task, especially for a team that has been as far as 14-1/2 games behind the Red Sox, but the schedule for the remainder of the season favors the Sox and the Yankees are going to have to take at least four of their six remaining head to head contests to have a realistic chance of overtaking them. The Red Sox do not look like a team on the verge of collapse and with their formidable rotation, they should be able to avoid any prolonged slumps. It's still the Red Sox pennant to lose. Of course if Gagne continues to cough up games, all bets are off. Beware of what you wish for, Red Sox fans, you might just get it.

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

The Scooter

The Yankee family lost one its most beloved members yesterday with the passing of Phil Rizzuto. Rizzuto who was know as the scooter was the Yankees shortstop during the 40's and 50's and went on to a long and colorful career in the broadcast booth. The scooter was a diminutive figure who was passed on by a couple of teams because they thought he was too small to play professional baseball. He persevered and eventually ended on the Yankees. He went on to play on seven world series winners and won the MVP award in 1950. He went straight to the broadcast booth after his career on the field ended and he went on to become something of a cultural icon. He will probably always remain best known for his stirring play by play call on Meatloaf's "Paradise By the Dashboard Lights".

The Yankees are honoring his memory by wearing his number 10 on their sleeves. I wrote a column in February about what a mistake it was for the Yankees to wear black arm bands for Cory Lidle. Now they have to go to the extra step of adding Rizzuto's number to their uniforms in order to have a proper tribute. It's like the Hall of Fame adding Luis Sojo and then having to create a special building to honor the likes of Ruth and Mays. A moment of silence would have been more than enough. Now that they've honored the memory of Corey Lidle in the same way they did Joe DiMaggio, they had to come up with something else to honor their truly legendary players.

On a personal note, I grew up listening to Phil Rizzuto broadcast Yankee games. He often spent a lot of time talking about the pastries that people had sent him and birthdays and anniversaries. I became so used to the rambling stories of Rizzuto that it was always a disappointment when he wasn't in the booth. I was actually at the stadium for Phil Rizzuto day (I was there to watch Tom Seaver win his 300th game), and when the cow that was presented to him knocked him over, it seemed somehow perfectly appropriate. Phil hasn't been in the broadcast booth for over a decade but I still miss his stories about cannolis, his wife Cora and his constant confusion over the names of Frank Messer and Bobby Mercer. He was definitely one of a kind. I feel fairly certain in saying that we won't see his like again for some time.

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Fire Steve Phillips

Here's my annual post celebrating the baseball knowledge of Steve Phillips (see last years post). Phillips used to be the GM of the New York Mets once upon a time, but given his absolute lack of understanding of the game, I have no idea how he managed to reach those heights. Anyway, these days he spends his time spouting nonsense on ESPN's baseball tonight. He also apparently has a grudge against the Yankees. Every year he picks them to not make the playoffs and this year is no exception. I guess he's just going to keep on doing that until he's right and then he will turn around and say I told you so.

Last year he said that not only wouldn't the Yankees make the playoffs, he said that they would finish third in the division behind the Blue Jays. He was correct about one thing, the Blue Jays did finish second, but they finished 10 games behind the Yankees. This year he made this statement in July:

"the Yankees want to hold on to their young players and have so many different needs they are not sure where to start. If the Yanks make a big trade it will more likely be as a seller (see Abreu), as opposed to buying a major piece for a run down the stretch. "

He was right that the Yankees didn't want to part with their young players, but they were certainly not sellers at the trade deadline and since he made that statement, the Yankees have gone 24-8 (Abreu is still very much a part of the team and has been one of the best hitters in the AL since June). Today on Sportscenter he predicted that not only would the Yankees not make the playoffs, but the Mets would also be staying home come October. I guess he decided that now was the time to try and get back at his former employers.

I'm not one to make guarantees about the Yankees and the playoffs, but if Steve Phillips says they aren't going to make it, you can take it to the bank that they will. That goes for the Mets too. Remember this is the guy who said last year that he would take the Blue Jays starters over any other team in the AL East. At that time, the Blue Jays had exactly one starter (Roy Halladay) with a career winning percentage over .500. By they way, his reason for the Yankees not making the playoffs this year is that their offense is going to fail them and that they don't have enough pitching to maintain their current pace. According to Phillips, making the playoffs is all about pitching. However in his very next segment he said that the Colorado Rockies were going to win the wildcard in the NL because of (come on say it with me) their OFFENSE. Not a word about their pitching, just their offense, which he had just finished saying was not enough to get you in to the playoffs (just for reference the Rockies have the 9th best ERA in the NL while the Yankees have the 6th best ERA in the AL).

Steve Phillips, professional idiot.

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Friday, August 10, 2007

Babe Ruth Was Black

I just wanted to get your attention with that headline, although I have read articles in which the authors put forth the unsubstantiated and practically laughable theory that Babe was actually black. But I digress, my article today is actually a defense of the afore mentioned George Herman Ruth. I really do appreciate the different viewpoints that many have on the Barry Bonds issue. I personally have no love for the man, as I've stated many times here. What I am noticing in a lot of articles that would defend bonds, is a general attempt to somehow denigrate the accomplishments and character of Babe Ruth. While history has turned Babe into a beer swilling, good-time guy, who loved all kids and never had anything but kindness and goodwill in his heart, that characterization is probably not very close to the truth. I'm sure there were many in his era who didn't like the man (Lou Gehrig being one notable example). However his accomplishments on the field are without equal in the history of the game.

It's true that he did play in a segregated era, but it's also true that he played against most of the best players of his time. The Negro league players were excluded, but you have to take into account that the percentage of blacks in America at the time was under 10%. Let's say that the Majors were complete integrated and they reflected the racial makeup of the US. That would mean that every team would have approximately 2 black players on their team. That would mean that Ruth would have still been playing against approximately 92% of the same players that he actually compiled his stats against. The Negro Leagues undoubtedly had some of the greatest players of the day. Satchel Paige, Oscar Charleston, Josh Gibson among others put up spectacular numbers and are rightfully honored in Cooperstown. But while the argument is made that Ruth put up his numbers in a segregated league, no one ever argues the fact that the Negro Leaguers put up their numbers in a segregated league as well. And also a league that only drew on 8% of the total population.

The point is that both sets of players faced a less than ideal situation. I have no doubt that the best players in the Negro Leagues would have been among the best players in the Major Leagues, just as I have no doubt that Ruth would have been outstanding if he had the chance to compete against them. I think the empirical evidence shows that Babe Ruth is the greatest player ever to play the game. Was he the best hitter of all time? I don't know, but he's certainly in the conversation. That combined with the fact that he was one of the best pitchers of his era before switching to the outfield full time, have convinced me that he was in fact the best baseball player ever(By the way, in 1933 as a 38 year old, Babe pitched a complete game for the Yankees and got the win).

It is true that Babe had an advantage because he played in a segregated era, but so did everyone else in the majors at the time. One of the points used to defend Bonds is that everyone was on steroids during this era, so his records are valid because the playing field was equal. Bonds just put up better numbers. The same can be said of Babe. Everyone who played in the majors during his era competed on equal footing, Babe just put up better numbers than they did. In 1925 he out-homered the entire Boston Red Sox team! So feel free to defend Bonds, but it shouldn't be at the expense of Babe Ruth (who is after all the greatest black player of all time).

And a little personal aside; Brian, get ready for a big helping of "Mama's Family".

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Monday, August 06, 2007

Tom Terrific

The moniker "Tom Terrific" was bestowed decades ago on the Mets greatest pitcher, Tom Seaver. However I think it's very appropriate that he share that nickname for at least one night with Tom Glavine. Glavine became the 23rd and potentially final member of the 300 win club last night. Glavine pitched 6-1/3 innings and left with a 5-1 lead. The Mets bullpen made it interesting for a short while but managed to close out the 7th inning on a deep fly ball and a 5-3 lead. The Mets added insurance runs in the 8th and 9th innings and Mets took no chances with a five run lead and brought in their closer Billy Wagner to seal the deal.

Tom Glavine now one of only three pitchers to win 300 games and never strike out as many as 200 hitters in a season. Glavine was never a power pitcher. His best pitch is a changeup low and away. His lack of real domination of hitters is probably the reason that despite his impressive win total, he has often been overlooked when discussing the games best pitchers. Glavine will probably always remain the most anonymous 2 time Cy Young award winner ever. During his days with the Atlanta Braves he was overshadowed by his teammate Greg Maddux. Maddux was viewed as the best pitcher in baseball for much of the nineties when he won a record 4 Cy Young awards in a row from '92-'95 (Randy Johnson matched that streak a few years later). Few realize however that Glavine has actually won 20 games (5 times) on more occasions than Maddux has (twice). While Maddux had the gaudier ERA numbers, Glavine actually won more games five times (including '93 when he went 22-6, but Maddux won the Cy Young award with a 20-10 record).

Glavine has always taken a back seat to the great power pitchers of the era. Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and even Curt Schilling were piling up strikeouts and headlines, but Glavine's career numbers prove that he belonged in the discussion all along. He may also be the answer to the trivia question of who was the last pitcher to win 300 games. Baseball made a shift away from the four man rotation in the eighties, meaning that a starting pitcher has few opportunities to win games. A starter in the days of the four man rotation would get approximately 40 starts a year, but today's starters can only expect around 34. Over a 15 year career, that equates to 90 starts. A starting pitcher today is at a huge disadvantage in an attempt to win 300 games. A very good pitcher will win approximately 50% of their starts, which translates to an additional 60 wins or so over a 20 year career for a very good pitcher in a four man rotation. Also given the huge investment that teams make in their pitching, trips to the DL for relatively minor injuries are more likely than they used to be.

Randy Johnson is next in line to win 300 games (he currently sits at 284), but he just had his second back surgery in as many seasons and he would be 44 by the time he is able to pitch again. At this point, it's unclear as to whether he will ever pitch again. Mike Mussina won his 246th game yesterday, but he is 38 and is clearly on the downside of his career. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain his average of 15 wins a season for four more season. I would place his odds of reaching 300 somewhere between slim and none. After Mussina, there doesn't appear to be anyone capable of making a run at 300. Pedro Martinez would have had a chance but injuries appear to have taken that chance away. He has 206 wins and is only 35, but has lost significant parts of three seasons. He has yet to pitch this year and no one knows how he will rebound after this latest arm injury. He would have to average about 16 wins for the next 6 seasons to reach the magic number.

So I offer my congratulations to Tom Glavine. He may not have gotten much press, after all his career hasn't been marked by controversy or scandal. His calling cards have always been consistency and excellence and those aren't exactly the things that make headlines. Glavine never sought the spotlight. He has just gone about doing his job and doing it better than almost anyone. I'll give him his due and dub him Tom Terrific, at least for today. We literally may never see his like again.

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Friday, August 03, 2007

Georgie Best

A new article in Portfolio magazine claims that George Steinbrenner is in a bloated and bewildered state at his home in Florida. According to the magazine George is not capable of even carrying on a conversation at this point. If this is true it would be a sad ending to one of the most colorful and storied ownership periods in recent sports history. George bought the Yankees from CBS for $10 million (the franchise in now worth in excess of $1 billion) in 1973 with the stated goal of returning the once proud franchise to its former glory. He also said that he would be a hands off owner and let the baseball people handle the on field decision making. One out of two ain't bad. George did indeed return the Yankees to their former position as the signature franchise of the sport, but hands off he was not.

George's resume includes a virtual merry-go-round of managers during the late seventies and eighties (Billy Martin alone was hired and fired four times), a two year suspension for trying to dig up dirt on one of his own players, 15 AL east crowns (the '81 season technically had two champions for each division because of the mid-season strike by the players, the Yankees were the first half champs), 10 AL championships and 6 World Series crowns. George became the most controversial and successful owner in sports. George took full advantage when free agency hit baseball in the middle of the seventies and brought in players such as Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson who would help provide the Yankees with their first championships in over a decade and a half.

George saw free agents as the way to win immediately, but this heavy reliance on the quick fix eventually led to the downfall of the team. The Yankees of the mid seventies were a team on the verge of greatness. They had been build through a combination of shrewd trades and a strong minor league system. The addition of a few key players through free agency then propelled them to two consecutive World Championships. George then assumed that he could always restock his team by either trading for veterans or signing free agents. The minor league system suffered as a result. The Yankees consistently traded away their top minor league players for established major leaguers. In fact the only player who came out of the Yankee minor league system and made a significant contribution during the eighties was Don Mattingly. George's tactics would change every year depending on who had won the World Series the year before. He actually tried to turn the Yankees into a speed team one year because it had been successful for the St. Louis Cardinals. The began to struggle for an identity and they went the decade of the eighties without a championship. It was in fact the first time that a Yankee team had gone 0 for a decade. The Yankees entered a prolonged stretch of not even reaching the playoffs. They went from 1982-1995 without such an appearance.

In fact the best thing that happened to the Yankees as an organization was when the commissioner banned George from the team for his attempt to dig up dirt on Dave Winfield. George hired an ex-con to investigate Winfield and see if there were any improprieties in his charitable organization. George had signed Winfield as a replacement for Reggie Jackson, but was not happy with the fact that Winfield's teams had not had the same results as the Jackson years. He even labeled Winfield "Mr. May" after his 1 for 23 performance in the 1981 World series. After his attempt to discredit his own player was discovered, George was banned from all baseball decisions for two years. This meant that Gene Michael was left in charge of day to day baseball operations. The change in leadership probably saved Bernie Willams from being traded and the Yankees began to slowly rebuild toward respectability. When George returned, the Yankees were beginning to show signs of life and he actually began to take the advice of his baseball people a little more seriously. The suspension was actually the foundation for the dynasty of the late 90's.

The Yankees went on to win four of five World Series and appear in six of eight from '96-'03. George was in his glory, but like all good things the title run came to end. George has spent a lot of money and the Yankees have continued to win, but they have not been able to repeat the magic of those glory years. George has been at times vilified in the press and over the years there have been players who have said that they wouldn't play for the Yankees regardless of how much money they were offered, yet in a Sports Illustrated poll of major leaguers that came out recently, the Yankees were at the top of the list of teams that players would like to play for. George has been a loud mouthed, over the top owner at times, but no one has ever questioned his will to win. He has made a lot of errors over the years, but they were errors of commission, not omission. Even his worst critic couldn't accuse George of not trying.

So George will leave behind an interesting legacy whenever his run as owner ends. As the great philosopher Plato once said or maybe it was Charles Dickens, it was the best of times it was the worst of times. He certainly had a lot of ups and downs along the way, but no can ever say that it was boring.

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