He's Got the Whole World, In His Hands

It is a slight exaggeration to suggest that Johan Santana has the whole world in his hands, but he does probably hold the key to the AL east in his hands. At this point the Twins are in serious negotiations with the Red Sox and Yankees for the services of the best pitcher in the AL. Santana, who is only one year away from free agency could be the single player who could decide which team will be the dominant one in the AL for the next five years. The Red Sox already have an advantage in pitching and adding Santana would not only make their rotation the best in baseball but the Yankees would be unable to match the move, even with their seemingly unlimited payroll. The Yankees on the other hand, by acquiring a number one starter would put themselves back on equal footing with the Red Sox in the pitching department.

The Yankees have spent lavishly this off season to retain their aging stars. Mariano Rivera was paid a ridiculous amount of money to come back for three more seasons and both he and Posada will be north of their 40th birthdays when these contracts expire. The monstrous Arod contract will also employ him until he well into his 40's. The Yankees were supposed to be in the middle of a youth movement, but their only moves this offseason have been to secure the services of players who will be well past their primes when their contracts expire. The seeming hope of the franchise (besides the endless supply of money) is that they have a wealth of young pitching. Three in particular stand out. Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. It was assumed that they would all get a chance to make the starting rotation next year. Now the talk of trading for Santana has changed that. The Yankees have said all along that Joba is untouchable and they'd rather not trade Hughes. That's pretty tough talk, but they'd probably do almost anything to block Santana's trade to the Red Sox. The Yankees had talked about moving in a new direction, about using home grown talent, about lowering their payroll. But at the end of the day, it's all about winning and winning now.

The Red Sox are sitting on top of the baseball world at this point and adding Santana would make them prohibitive favorites heading into next season. It must seem strange for most Boston fans to realize that they have basically switched roles with the Yankees. It used to be that the Sox were always trying to catch up with the Yankees and now it's just the opposite. The Red Sox have as much young talent as the Yankees and could almost certainly make a deal if they were willing to part with the players that the Twins have requested. However, like the Yankees, they are taking a harder line by refusing to include certain players. Do they as much at stake as the Yankees? Probably not. Unlike their Bronx counterparts, they would probably still feel good about their team if the Yankees were successful in acquiring Santana. I don't think that they would sweeten their offer to include their players who they now deem as untouchable if they were told that the Yankees had increased their offer.

Santana will demand a new contract in the range of $150-$160 million over seven years. That's why this bidding has come down to the Yankees and the Red Sox. They are not only the teams best stocked with the talent to make this trade, they are the two teams who could easily absorb a $20 million a year pitcher. Santana also has a complete no-trade clause in his contract. It seems to me that if he hadn't already told Twins management that he would accept a trade to either team, that they wouldn't be talking to them. There are other players in the game. The Mets, Angels and Dodgers have all had talks with the Twins as well, but if Santana is indeed traded, I expect it to be to the Yankees or Sox.

The Twins could just decide to hold on to Santana and see how the first half of the season goes. Teams are usually a little more desperate around the trading deadline and they could potentially get even more for Santana by waiting until then. A trade deadline deal from a desperate team (the Yankees) might be the way to go. Santana has already turned down a extension offer from the Twins, so it is unlikely that they will keep him past next year. The Twins have holes in CF, SS, Third base and the starting rotation, with Santana being the biggest chip they have, they are certainly going to take their time in making a decision.

So who wins this high stakes game of poker between the Yankees and Red Sox? Frankly I think the Sox are slightly better positioned to win this game. The sticking point with the Sox and Twins is over a center fielder. Position players are easier to come by than starting pitchers. The Yankees and Twins sticking point is Phil Hughes, who is a starter. I think the Sox eventually give in and throw the CFer into the deal and get it done. It's not the outcome that I want, but unless the Yankees are literally willing to give away the farm, they are going to lose this pissing contest.

I Don't Know Why You Say Goodbye...

In a stunning turnaround, it now appears that Alex Rodriguez will be playing in pinstripes after all. The news broke yesterday that Arod and the Yankees had been in meetings to work out a deal after Arod had "reached out" to the Yankees through a third party to express his interest in remaining with the team. The Yankees had flatly stated that if Arod opted out of his contract that they would not pursue him as a free agent. Of course nothing was written in stone. And now that Arod has come back to negotiate exclusively with the Yankees, all seems to be forgiven.

According to "inside sources" Arod was not happy with the way things have gone for him. He didn't expect the Yankees to stand firm on their promise not to deal with him and he didn't expect the public backlash that has accompanied his free agency. It really baffles me that someone as seemingly intelligent as Arod could allow something like this to happen, which is why I think this was planned all along. Boras realized that there wouldn't be much of a market for Arod and devised this plan to get the Yankees to pony up more than the $220 million they would have originally brought to the table. Boras' plan all along was to get Arod a $300 million contract. He knew that the only team that could really commit that kind of money to Arod was the Yankees. So in order to get them to up their offer and without making Arod seem like all he cared about was money, he decided to play the bad cop to Arod's good cop.

He has manipulated the press at every turn and his plan has worked to perfection. He put out the press release about Arod opting out at the most inappropriate time. He has been the only one talking about Arod and about how much money he was worth to a team. He has been the only one making any statements to the press. Arod has been silent during this entire saga. The first thing we hear from Arod is when he put out a statement on his website about how much he and his wife love NY and that they are discussion with the Yankees about their future. Arod can now be seen as someone who was led astray by the big bullying agent. He really wanted to come back to the Yankees all along. But now instead of a eight year extension for $220 million, he will now get a 10 year $270 million contract with incentives that would push the deal to over $300 million. It's perfect, Arod and Boras get what they want and the Yankees get what they need.

Arod will now be able to say that it wasn't all about money. He really loves the Yankees and they were indeed the only team he wanted to play for. Boras gets to trumpet in the press that he had deals on the table for more money (without ever naming names of course), but his client went with his heart. It's the perfect fairly tale ending (wink, wink). Of course it's all a bunch a bullshit, but the Yankees will play along because they know that they don't really have a viable option at third base. They know that they need Arod just as much as he needs them. Arod will return to NY and continue his assault on the record books and perhaps win a World Series or two along the way and this episode will be forgotten.

This whole thing has been media manipulation pure and simple; Brian Cashman knows it, Hank Steinbrenner knows it, Arod knows it, Boras knows it and the American people know it. In the end it's not going to make any difference though. Everyone will be all smiles at the press conference. Arod will smile and talk about how this whole situation was a misunderstanding and it wasn't about the money. Cashman will smile and say that they got the deal that they always wanted. Hank Steinbrenner will smile (okay maybe not him) and talk about how the Yankees maintained their integrity. And somewhere in the background, Scott Boras will be laughing his ass off.

Catch Me If You Can

In the end, the Yankees had no choice. They ended up giving Jorge Posada a fourth year at $13 million in order to get the contract done. There were no good options in the free agent market and with the Yankees minor league prospects being at least two years away from being ready, they did the only thing they could.

Jorge has said from the beginning that he wanted to stay with the Yankees. He didn't even test his worth on the open market, because at the end of the day, he didn't want to wear another uniform. Now if the the Yankees had stuck to their three year offer, he may very well have listened to what the Mets had to say. Catchers don't have a great history of remaining very productive into their late thirties. In fact the history of catchers who have done that is exactly one player long, Carlton Fisk. That's it. The Yankees have their fingers crossed that Posada, who is coming off a career year (in which he hit 60 points over his career average), is going to join Fisk on that short list.

I've read the articles praising Posada as the heart and soul of team or the quiet leader or even a boarder line hall of famer. I've never thought of him as any of those things. I'm not even sure what being the heart and soul of a team means. He has certainly been pretty quiet and unless he turns into Mike Piazza in his prime over the next four years, then he'll be buying a ticket for Cooperstown like the rest of us mere mortals. Posada can also be a bit prickly with pitchers. Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are just a couple examples of pitchers who preferred to have someone else behind the plate. He's a below average defensive catcher, who is not particularly adept at blocking balls in the dirt (see game 2 against Cleveland as an example). He has an above average arm, but overall his defense is not going to win you many games.

His defense is not the reason why he just got $52 million from the Yankees however. Posada has been one of the top offensive catchers in baseball for the past seven years. The Yankees are gambling that he can remain in upper echelon of catchers for at least the next couple of years. As we have seen by the Yankees inability to find a back up catcher for Posada, there is not an abundance of catchers who can hit. In fact, the other good offensive catchers have been locked up by their teams for years to come. Joe Mauer in Minnesota (who has been hurt quite a bit), Victor Martinez in Cleveland, Brian McCann in Atlanta are not available on the open market and won't be for some time. The Yankees have some young catchers in their system, but none are considered prime prospects and certainly none are ready for the majors.

In giving Posada a fourth year, the Yankees have no doubt put themselves in a situation where they will be paying for diminished production as time goes on. However, they did not have a realistic option. It was either pay Posada, or go into next season with a huge hole in the lineup. Given the fact that they already have a huge hole with the loss of Arod, they couldn't afford to lose Posada as well. Even at $52 million, the Yankees have to feel like it's money well spent.

Last Line of Defense

This is the last time I write something defending Arod (I think), but Murray Chass of the NY Times couldn't help but get a parting shot at him. He wrote,

"If there is a team considering pursuing Rodriguez, it should remember that he has never played in a World Series, and he was a major reason his team didn’t get there the past three seasons."

Arod played an essential role in getting the Yankees to post season in the last three years. Remember that we are talking about, not one, but two MVP seasons in the last three years. If you don't get to the playoffs, you don't even get a chance to compete for the World Series. He certainly should shoulder some of the blame for the Yankees not advancing beyond that ALDS for the last three years, but without him there's a good chance that at least one, if not two of those three playoff appearances don't even happen. I think Chein Ming Wang giving up 12 runs in 5 innings had something to do with the Yankees losing to the Indians in their most recent trip to the playoffs. Arod played here for four years and the Yankees didn't win the World Series which is too bad for Yankee fans, but he is not the only or major reason for that.

I'm A Travelling Man

Scott Boras announced to the world last night that Arod will indeed be opting out of his contract with the Yankees. The Yankees, who were preparing a mega deal for Arod, were not even given the chance to present an offer to him. The fact that Boras chose to make the announcement on the same night that the Red Sox won the series (thereby hogging the press coverage), is typical of the agent who doesn't care about the game, he only cares about the money. And in the end, I guess that's what an agent is supposed to care about. The press is vilifying Boras and Arod for the timing of the announcement, but Boras knew that doing it last night would get maximum press coverage. Peter Gammons was doing actually doing commentary about Arod decision on the field, while the Red Sox celebrated in the background.

As I said in one of my previous emails regarding Arod, this decision wouldn't be made based on money. He may get more money from another team, but the difference really isn't going to be that substantial. His decision isn't based on the "uncertainty surrounding the team" as Boras put it. Or because he didn't know who the next manager would be, or because he thought the Yankees wouldn't put a quality product on the field next year. He just didn't want to play for the Yankees anymore. Plain and simple. It could have been because of his up and down relationship with the fans, the pressure that he felt to produce, the non stop coverage by the press, his frosty relationship with Derek Jeter, or the expectations that were placed upon him, but whatever the ultimate reason, it all adds up to the same thing.

Arod will pack his bags once again and hit the road and bring with him the promise of greatness. He will sit in another press conference and proclaim that this is his final destination, that he never wants to wear the uniform of another team and that he finally feels like he's home. He will say all the things that the press and fans in his next city will want to hear. The only issue I have with Arod is that I know the speech is already written. Perhaps Arod will end up in Chicago with Lou Pinella where he may be the answer to the long suffering Cubs. He may go the Angels, whose owner has long coveted Arod. He may even end up in Boston, who only have to carry Manny's $20 million contract for one more season. I really have no idea where he'll go, but someone is going to pay a lot of money for the right to watch Arod make an assault on the all time home run record.

I personally bear no ill will toward Arod. It's been a treat to watch one of the greatest players of all time on a day to day basis. He almost single-handedly kept the Yankees afloat for the first half of this season and his play down the stretch in '05 was the difference in the Yankees winning another divisional crown. I have spent a lot of time in this forum defending him from his numerous critics and I regret none of it. His four year stretch was the best individual performance that I've ever seen by a Yankee player (and I've been watching since the 70's). He showed up everyday and did his job well. That's about all you can ask from a player. I don't know what he was like on the bench or in the clubhouse, but when he had a bat in his hands, he was the best player in the game.

So as Arod leaves New York, I wish him good look in his search. I'm not sure what he's looking for, but apparently he didn't find it here. The fans in his new city are in for a treat. He is without a doubt, a once in a generation type of player. And maybe, if he's lucky, his next stop will provide him with something that money can't buy. It may provide him with a place he can call home and actually mean it.

Can I Have This Dance...

The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are about to begin their high stakes game of Chicken that will ultimately lead to Arod signing a mega deal with the team or taking his chances on the open market. His agent, Scott Boras, has been in spin mode since well before the Yankees season ended and he has now kicked the spin into high gear. He's been talking about the Arod's value to the Yankees and to their regional sports network YES, and claiming that Arod is the reason that the network's value has tripled since he's been on the team. He is also claiming the Yankees boost in attendance can be directly traced to Arod. I believe that he even floated a figure of $40 million a year as reasonable for his client. His latest release to the press stated that the loss of Joe Torre and the accompanying turmoil may play a factor in Arod's decision.

While all of Boras' arguments are fairly transparent, his claim that the loss of Joe Torre will have an effect of Arod's decision may be the most laughable. Just last year, Torre dropped Arod to 8th place in the playoffs against Detroit and refused to defend him in a Sports Illustrated article. To think that Arod would hinge his decision on whether to come to the Yankees based on Torre's presence is a joke. While I'm sure that Arod and Torre were able to coexist peacefully in the clubhouse, to call their relationship warm, would probably be stretching the truth. During all of Boras' pronouncements, we have yet to hear a peep out of Arod. I'm sure this is all part of the grand scheme orchestrated by Boras to keep the Yankees guessing as to his real intentions.

Boras has a history of pushing the clock on negotiations. Just last winter he kept the Red Sox guessing about whether Matsusaka would sign a contract. In fact, in the end, it was Matsusaka who made the deal happen. He wanted to play for the Red Sox and so he took the last deal that was offered. Arod is in much the same position. The Yankees have stated publicly on various occasions that they will not pursue Arod if he chooses to opt out of his contract. They have said that they are simply unwilling to leave the money that the Texas Rangers are obligated to pay Arod over the next three seasons on the table. The Yankees will almost certainly offer Arod a long term extension in the $30 million neighborhood. The question is whether Arod wants to play for the Yankees or whether he would prefer to play somewhere else. In the end, it won't be about the money, but about Arod's comfort level with the city.

He may indeed get slightly more money over the next three seasons if he opts out of the Yankee deal (which will pay him $25 million a season), but over the life of the contract, the money will be fairly close. We may be talking about the difference between $240 and $250 million. It's a difference to be sure, but how much will that really matter to someone in Arod's position? We are about to find out. A lot of people have labeled Arod as a player who is only chasing money, but the difference in what he was offered (during his last foray into the free agent market) by his old team (Seattle) and the team he ended up on (Texas) was staggering ($90 million Vs. $250 million). He really had no choice but to take the offer from Texas. His stated reasons for moving were not believable (they were building a winning franchise, great atmosphere, etc.). He simply should have said what everyone knew, he went there for the money. I mean who could really blame him? He was singled out as the example of the greedy ballplayer anyway, so being honest couldn't have really hurt him much.

His situation with the Yankees is going to be much different. Arod knows that the Yankees are a franchise that is committed to winning and one that will spend money in order to guarantee a competitive product on the field every year. To walk away from the Yankees when they will make a great financial offer and practically guarantee a shot at the playoffs every season, would be an absolute repudiation of the team and the city. Perhaps he really hated his time here. The Yankee fans were certainly unkind at times and the papers here have followed his personal life with the reckless abandon. I certainly wouldn't hold it against him if he decided that he'd rather pursue his baseball life in another city as long as he was honest about the reasons for leaving.

I've always thought that the biggest problem with Arod connecting with the fans is that almost everything that comes out his mouth seems to be planned. He never really seems to speak from his heart. New Yorkers especially love an athlete who wears his heart on his sleeve. Arod is the definition of "maintaining an even strain". The Yankee fans were much kinder to Arod this year because of the phenomenal numbers that he produced, but I don't think that they really identify with Arod or truly embrace him. The contract is one of the reasons, but the other is that people perceive him as a player who keeps his distance from the fans. Arod is just a private person. It's the same kind of quality that Joe DiMaggio had, but in those days, baseball fans weren't privy to comings and goings of their stars. The majority of fans had no idea what a prickly and private person DiMaggio was. The press perpetuated his image by talking about how classy DiMaggio was. His teammates may have had a different opinion of him, but that was never conveyed to the public. There was no SI article talking about his relationship with his teammates. They looked at the numbers he produced and his on field demeanor and turned him into an icon. If Arod had been a star during those days, he may be viewed differently by the public, but given today's access and never ending stream of press, Arod is not viewed in that light.

I really have no idea what Arod's decision is going to be, but Yankees have about 3 weeks left to negotiate exclusively with him. I can assure you that in that time we are going to get a lot more from Scott Boras and probably very little from the only person who already knows whether the Arod show will continue on Broadway or whether it will be hitting the road again.

The Time of Your Life

The Yankees made an offer to Joe Torre yesterday that they knew he would have to refuse. They offered him a base salary that was 30% below what he made this year. A year in which he led the Yankees from 14-1/2 games out of first to within sniffing distance of the division title and to their 13th straight playoff appearance. The Yankees offered him performance bonuses and a vesting option for one more year if he made the World Series. Joe turned them down. He left a potential $16 million on the table because he didn't think that after all he had done for the Yankees that he deserved to be treated like a salesman working for a bonus. Joe managed to leave the Yankees with the same dignity and grace that he has displayed over his past 12 years at the helm of the world's most famous team.

The Yankees probably felt they had no choice but to offer a contract to Torre. Before Torre arrived the Yankees had been to the post season just once in 14 years. The tradition of winning championships was a distant memory. When he took the reigns of the team, there were 21 year old Yankee fans who would have had no memory of the team ever winning a World Series. Joe changed all that. His teams won an amazing four titles in five years. Now there are 18 year old fans who believe that the Yankees being in the playoffs is their birthright. Ultimately Joe Torre became a victim of his own success. He had been unable to get the Yankees out of the first round of the three years in a row and ownership finally decided that it was time to make a change. Regardless of George Stienbrenner's proclamation that Joe wouldn't be back if the Yankees didn't beat the Indians, it would have been almost inconceivable for the Yankees not to make an offer to the most successful manager of modern times. They knew that the offer would have to be substantial and they knew that it would have to molded in such a way that Torre would have no choice but to turn it down.

Offering an incentive based contract is a first in baseball as far as I know. I don't remember another manager being offered incentives based on how far a team gets in the playoffs. Players often have incentive clauses in their contracts for winning awards and of course there are tens of thousands of dollars in playoff bonuses if their teams advance. But managers usually don't have that kind of contract. They may have a bonus clause if they win manager of the year, but I don't know if they have bonus clauses (especially for $3 million) for winning in the playoffs. Anyway, the base salary was always going to be a sticking point and the Yankees knew this. They knew that Joe Torre could never accept a pay cut. They knew that he would have no choice but to turn down the offer and head back home. They also knew that they could then tell Yankee fans that they had tried to resign Joe. They had made a good faith effort, they had even offered him more money than he made this year. They had done everything possible to try and retain Joe, but in the end he had decided to move on.

I know that some fans will buy the explanation. After all how can someone who is struggling every day to feed their family feel bad about a man who turns down a guaranteed contract of $5 million? But I have a feeling that many of those working class people will feel bad for Joe. Joe's a New Yorker, he speaks the same language that many of the fans do. He grew up going to Yankee stadium. He was actually at the perfect game that Don Larsen threw in the '56 World Series. The Yankees haven't won the Series for seven years, and while the fans will bitch and moan about that, they will not forget the magical ride that the '96-'00 team took this city on. And Joe Torre was at the helm of that team.

It is now officially the end of the Joe Torre era and the beginning of the Don Mattingly? era. It doesn't really matter who takes over the managerial seat for the Yankees. I can guarantee you that the Yankees won't have another era like this one. The Yankees were the only playoff team to repeat an appearance from last year. With revenue sharing and TV money the era of parity has reached the major leagues. The Yankees still have the highest payroll and enough talent to compete for the playoffs for the conceivable future, but they will not be making the playoffs for the next 12 years in a row. A year will come when the Yankees get off to a slow start and they don't stage a huge turnaround in the second half. A year will come when age, injury or just simple bad luck will catch up with them. I don't know who the manager will be then, but all the papers in town will wax poetic about the glory days when the Yankees made the playoffs every year. They'll long for those days and they'll long for Joe Torre. And so will the Yankees.

The Morning After

Now that the baseball off-season is upon us (at least upon those of us that are Yankee fans), the task of assessing the past season and deciding what 2008 has in store is at hand. I've already written about what I thought of the season and the team, but there are a lot of choices to made for the Yankees going forward. Let's look at the team position by position:

Catcher:

Jorge Posada had a career year at the age of 36, it didn't hurt that it came during a contract year. Jose Molina provided the Yankees with the first solid back up work since Posada's early years. The Yankees have no choice but to resign Posada. They don't have a big league ready catcher in the minors and there are no attractive free agent choices. Posada has said that he would test the free agent waters, but he really has no desire to leave the Bronx and the Yankees have no desire to see him leave. Catchers usually stop being productive in their mid thirties, but the Yankees have no choice but to sign Posada to a three year contract in the $40 million dollar range. Molina probably wants to be an everyday catcher somewhere, so I don't think the Yankees are going to be able to keep him happy. It looks like they will once again be searching for a competent back up to Posada.

First Base:

Doug Menkekeldlwyzt provided a solid glove and better bat than anticipated at first (although I still think he's best suited as a defensive replacement). Giambi suffered through an injury plagued year and thankfully for the Yankees, 2008 is the last year of his monstrous contract. Also Andy Phillips and Wilson Betament played some first base during the year. The first base situation is really dependent on the Arod situation at third. First is traditionally a power position, but Doug Mendkzekewltz doesn't provide much power. Giambi , when healthy, can provide power, but his defense is more than a little suspect. If Arod is on the team, the Yankees can afford to give up some power at the position, if he's not, then they really need someone to pick up the offensive slack. I know Giambi is going to be on the team in '08, I'm just not sure who else will be joining him.

Second Base:

Robinson Cano overcame a horrible start to hit over .300 again and drive in almost 100 runs. His defense is at times spectacular and at times it looks like he's not really paying attention. Overall though, I think he's one of the better second basemen in the league and he provides the Yankees with a young position player who can anchor the lineup for years to come. He's a number three hitter in the making.

Shortstop:

Derek Jeter was slowed by injuries this year and his usual stellar base running suffered. His range on defense, which has never been great, was even worse this year. His numbers were down from his "should have been MVP" year, but he still scored 100 runs and hit .320. I expect him to bounce back some next year and at least improve his stolen base percentage.

Third Base:

Probably the biggest question mark the Yankees have this offeseason besides Joe Torre is Arod. He can opt out of his contract 10 days after the end of the World Series and his agent Scott Boras and the Yankees will be playing a high stakes game of poker until then. Boras has already floated stories in the press about possible ownership being offered and the staggering figure of $400 million as a possibility. This is really going to come down to whether Arod wants to stay in NY or go somewhere else. I'm sure the Yankees will make him a very lucrative offer (in the $225-$250 million range), so money isn't going to be the issue. Arod has to decide whether he wants to establish his legacy here or not. I still don't know the answer to that one. If were betting on this, I'd say that he signs with the Yankees at 11:59 PM, one minute before the opt out date.

Right Field:

Bobby Abreu, like Cano overcame a horrendous start to post very good numbers. He never got his average above .300, but he did drive in and score over 100 runs. The Yankees have a $16 million option for next year and so they can decide his fate. If the Yankees were to go out and get a center fielder, say Aaron Rowand, I believe that they would let Abreu walk. If they can get Rowland for about $10 million a year, then they could move Melky to RF, improve their defense and save some money. Abreu is a former Gold Glove winner, but in NY he has always seemed to shy away from the walls. He has a good arm, but his range is very limited. In my opinion, the Yankees would be better off getting a cheaper CF and letting Bobby go.

Center Field:

Melky Cabrera established himself as the Yankees CF'er early in season. He also got off to a very slow start, but was a big part of the Yankee resurgence in the second half. He's got a great arm and good range. He's not the most natural CF'er in the game, but he did lead all CF'ers in the majors in outfield assists. I think the team would be best served by moving him to Right Field. He certainly has a RF'ers arm and if he could begin to develop more power, I think he could be fixture out there for many years.

Left Field:

Matsui had a very streaky year at the plate, but did end up with numbers that were fairly representative of his career (25HRs, 100 runs, 100 rbi's). The Yankees began using Johnny Damon in LF on a daily basis as the year wore on and unless they are able to trade Damon, I believe that Matsui will become for the most part, a full time DH. That would mean that Giambi would have to play first to get into the lineup. Perhaps Matsui, Damon and Giambi will become something of a rotating threesome between the three positions. For 2008, I suspect that Damon will get the majority of the time in the LF.

Starting Rotation:

The Yankees have Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlin and Igawa under contract for next year. I'm pretty sure that Clemens won't be back, but I'm thinking that Pettite will exercise his $16 million option and return. That leaves someone out of the mix in the rotation. I happen to think that Kei Igawa can be an effective starter in the majors. He clearly has the ability to strike hitters out (7.1K per 9), but he had control issues. If they can be fixed then I think he might turn out to be a serviceable starting pitcher. It would be a mistake to give up on him, because the Yankees will be relying on three very young pitchers to take the ball every fifth day. While each has shown this year that they can get hitters out, it would be wise to have other options in case they fail to reproduce the work they did in '07. I'm actually pretty excited to see what the Yankees can do with a rotation that would be 80% home grown.

Bullpen:

Rivera was his usual self after a shaky April. He's still one of the best closers in baseball, even if he's not as automatic as he used to be. I don't think the Yankees have a better option. He's been making some noise in the press about maybe not coming back if the Yankees chose not to bring Joe Torre back, but I don't think that's the case. It would take a mind boggling offer from another team to pry him away from the only team he's ever pitched for. The Yankees bullpen problems are with their set up men. Vizciano did a good job, but then got tired in September. Kyle Farnsworth went through a stretch were he seemed to give up at least a run in every appearance. Chamberlin was spectacular, but he'll be on the starting staff. The Yankees really need to look to the free agents to try and fill what appears to be to me, their biggest weakness.

So that's it for the position by position breakdown. I don't see a whole lot of change, except in the outfield. Every year I make suggestions to Brian Cashman about what to do with the team and every year he ignores me. This year will be no different.

All Good Things...

The Yankees 2007 season came to an end last night and with it, probably the Joe Torre era as well. They were done in by the timely hitting of the Indians who hit a remarkable .500 with 2 outs and men in scoring position. They scored the majority of their runs when the Yankee pitchers were pitch away from ending an inning. In the end, the Yankees vaunted lineup failed to produce in the clutch and their pitching was unable to hold the Indians in check. Outside of a three run home run by Johnny Damon and an error by Trot Nixon that allowed three runs to score, the Yankees offense failed to show up for the second year in a row. George Steinbrenner had already said that Joe's job was on the line if the Yankees failed to win this series, so there doesn't seem to be much hope that Torre will be given a new contract.

So how should we remember this season (I'll get to Torre a little bit later)? Should we remember how it ended (with a whimper rather than a bang)? Should we remember how impotent the highest scoring offense in the majors looked? Should we remember the Yankees best starter producing two forgettable starts? Should we remember Jeter, Arod, Matsui and Abreu failing in one clutch situation after another? You could chose to recollect those things when you think about this season, but I'd rather thing about the drama and the glory of the six months that precededed the ALDS. I'll remember the Yankees fighting back from a deficit of 14-1/2 games. I'll remember every major sports writer saying that this was the season that the Yankees finally fell apart. I'll remember a season for the ages put together by Alex Rodriquez. I'll remember Joba Chamberlin, Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy proving that the Yankees future is very bright indeed. I'll remember Jorge Posada who, despite catching over 130 games for what seemed like the 20th year in a row, had the best season of his career. I'll remember Andy Pettite coming back to Bronx after a three year sabbatical in Houston showcasing his usual second half brilliance. I'll remember Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera bringing their youthful exuberance and helping the Yankees remember that baseball is indeed just a game. I'll remember Mo Rivera overcoming a rough start and showing everybody that he is the greatest closer baseball has ever seen. I'll remember the seemingly unflappable Chien Ming Wang going out the mound and inducing grounder after grounder for his infield to handle. I'll remember a team at 21-29 and dead in the water suddenly remembering that they were the NEW YORK YANKEES and reminding all of baseball that they were a force to be reckoned with. To quote the Chairman of the Board,

"From the brim to the dregs, it poured sweet and clear, it was a very good year."

But the thing that I'll remember most of all is Joe Torre breaking down in the clubhouse after the Yankees clinched the wild card. One the reporters asked him about his team and Joe just couldn't hold back his emotions. That's what the Yankees will lose when Joe Torre leaves. They'll lose their heart. They'll lose the man who has kept them on the right path in good times and bad. Joe never wore his emotions on his sleeve during games or in the clubhouse. He was the one person who kept his head while all those around him were losing theirs. Joe came to town as a manager who hadn't won anything (well, he did lead Atlanta to a division title once) and leaves as a hall of famer having led the Yankees to 12 straight post season appearances, 6 AL championships and 4 World Series titles. In this age of parity in baseball (the Yankees were the only repeat team from last years playoffs), we may just have witnessed the last dynasty in baseball and Joe Torre was at the helm.

I know people will talk about the Yankees payroll and how they bought those victories, but for those who would say that, I would direct your attention across town to the team with the highest payroll in the National League. Did having more money than anyone else help the Mets avoid a late season collapse? Money doesn't guarantee anything and it certainly doesn't guarantee a trip to the playoffs every year. Joe brought stability and class to an organization that was lacking those things before his arrival. He never engaged in a shouting match in the press with his boss or one of his players, even when unkind things were said about him. He never threw fits on the field when a call went against him. He never raised his voice in a post game press conference, regardless of the ridiculous questions that were directed at him. Through good times and bad, he was (at least publicly) the same Joe. There are those that would say that the a more emotive manager would have been able to get the Yankees to play better. I have to respectfully disagree. The Yankees players could not have responded to any better to another manager than they have to Joe. They all universally speak of him with such respect and genuine affection that I can't imagine that they would performed any better than they have. Joe was simply the right man at the right time for the right team.

And now it's all over (presumably). I have a hard time believing that Joe would want to manage again (although the St. Louis Cardinals need a manager and Joe did have his best seasons as a player there (hmmm)). I think that the Cardinals may be the only team that could tempt Joe back into the managers seat. St. Louis is considered the best baseball city in the country and the pressure certainly would be a lot less than it was here in NY. I prefer to think that Joe won't take another job. That he'll always be remembered as the manager of the last dynasty in baseball and that he'll always be remembered as a NEW YORK YANKEE. There's a spot in monument park waiting for him and of course his number (6) will be retired on Joe Torre day and there's not a lot more that a baseball man can ask for. I just wish that Joe would have been able to go out on his own terms. I wished for the Yankees to win this year, not so much for me, but for Joe. I don't know if he would have quit if they had won it all, but that was my hope. This isn't quite the glorious ending I foresaw, but it doesn't change the picture of Joe Torre that I'll always carry in my mind, which is the players carrying him off the field as his eyes fill with tears.

Thanks, Joe. For everything.

Smells Like Roses

Filip Bondy of the NY Daily News had this to say today about the Yankees:

"Forget Nervous Guy at third base, scheduled to turn into a pumpkin tonight against C.C. Sabathia and the Indians. Wrap your hopes again inside the golden aura of Hero Man at shortstop, the trusty security blanket."

I know it's practically blasphemy around baseball to say anything negative about Derek Jeter, but why does praising Jeter have to come at the expense of Arod. All Arod did was put a season that hasn't been seen in baseball since the days of Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx. He practically single-handedly carried the Yankees during the first months of the season when half of the lineup was in a prolonged slump. Without him, the sainted Jeter doesn't even get to the postseason this year and yet the writers in this town can't help but take another shot at Arod. By the way, where was Jeter in the 2001 World Series when he hit .148 as the Yankees lost in seven games. How about the loss to the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS (which is constantly blamed on Arod) when he hit a robust .200 as the Yankees lost four games in a row. Jeter has produced lots of big hits for the Yankees over the years, but he's not infallible. If the Yankees fail this year, you can bet the writers will blame it on Arod no matter what Jeter does. If Jeter has a terrible series, all the articles will still be about Arod's inability to lead the Yankees to victory. It must be nice to be a saint. By the way, Filip Bondy couldn't be reached for a comment. He was too busy worshiping the ground that Jeter walked on.

Fighting Chance

The Yankees clinched their 13th straight postseason appearance last night in Tampa Bay. It was perhaps their most difficult job to date. In 1995 they had to play almost flawless baseball down the stretch to make the playoffs, but that team didn't have the expectations that this team did. With a $200 million payroll and an All-Star at almost every position, the Yankees staggered out of the starting gate and sat 14-1/2 games out of first and eight games under .500 on May 29th. Many baseball "experts" at that time proclaimed that the Yankees string of playoff appearances was at an end. The Yankees were floundering and they didn't seem capable of playing at the level that would be necessary to carry them to a playoff berth. However since that day, the Yankees have the best record in baseball at 70-38 and have assured themselves of at least a chance to win their 27th World Championship. I'm not one to toot my own horn, but I'm pretty sure their turnaround can be traced to this article.

The Yankees righted the ship and have played inspired baseball for the past three months. They head into the playoffs as one of the favorites to win it all. Of course, this is an all too familiar scenario. The Yankees headed into last year's playoffs as the betting favorite to win it all and were summarily dismissed by the Detroit Tigers in four games. The Yankees have a seemingly favorable match up in the first round (as they did last year), and enough time to rest their players and get everyone healthy before the postseason begins. Nothing is guaranteed in the playoffs though. Last year the Yankees faced a Tiger team that limped into the playoffs after blowing a huge lead at the All-Star break. They didn't have many players on the team with playoff experience, they had been dominated by the Yankees during the regular season and they seemed a perfect first round match up for the Yankees. This year the Indians seem the most likely first round opponent for the Yankees. The Yankees once again dominated them during the regular season and they have few players on their team with playoff experience. Unlike the Tigers last year however, the Indians are playing very well and if they end up with the best record in the AL, they will have the choice of being able to use their two best pitchers twice in a 5 game series.

The playoffs really are a crapshoot. The Cardinals and Tigers limped into the playoffs last year and ended up in the World Series. The Cardinals won the Series despite winning only 83 games during the regular season and almost blowing a seven game lead with two weeks remaining. I can certainly see a scenario where the Yankees win it all (Arod gets hot/Rocket comes back/Joba & Mo are perfect), but I can just as easily imagine them being beaten in the first round. At this point of the season, I make no guarantees. The Yankees have done what they set out to do at the beginning of the season. As the old tag line for the NY Lotto used to say, "you've got to be in it to win it". Well, the Yankees are in it, it just remains to be seen whether they will have the good luck and skill to win it all.

Armageddon

I'll begin today with something I wrote back on May 31st:

"The bottom line is that every day is not Armageddon. At some point this season might be a lost cause. But that day is not today and it's not tomorrow either."

Well, I'm here to tell you boys and girls that we've reached that point. The next week will determine whether the Yankees are driving for the playoffs or playing out the string in September. The Yankees currently find themselves 5 games behind the Red Sox and 3 games behind the Mariners in the wildcard (I know it's technically 2 games, but they trail by 3 in the loss column). They start a four game series in Detroit tonight followed by a three game series back at the stadium against the Red Sox. The Yankees have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games and have lost a game to the Sox and two to the Mariners over that stretch. They can ill afford another stretch of mediocrity. They really need to go 5-2 over the next seven games or they can basically forget about winning the division. Current playoff odds give the Yankees a 58% chance of making the playoffs but less than a 10% chance of winning the division. They really need to head into September with no more than a 3 game deficit to stand a chance of overtaking the Red Sox.

The Mariners have been winning games at an almost 70% rate of late. The Yankees cannot rely on a collapse from Seattle to make the playoffs. I had said earlier that the Yankees needed every break to go their way in order to make the playoffs and that still stands. Perhaps the fact that Gary Sheffield is not going to play in their next series is the first of those breaks, but then again perhaps it isn't. Sheffield was playing with an injured shoulder that had severely limited his production. The replacement player, while clearly not as good as a healthy Sheffield, might be more productive in his place. It remains to be seen whether the Yankees have caught a break or not.

The biggest concern for the Yankees right now is the performance of Mike Mussina. His last three outings have resulted in an ERA over 12. Even with the Yankees high powered offense, Mussina has not given the Yankees an opportunity to win. The whispers of Mussina being done have turned into a Greek chorus these days. I am willing to give Mussina some slack though. He has won more games than all but 45 pitchers in the history of the game. He deserves to be given the benefit of the doubt. That being said, if he doesn't straighten himself out by his next start, the Yankees may be forced to turn to someone else. I'm not sure who that would be, but they cannot afford to give away games at this point of the season.

If you've been a regular reader, you know that I'm not one to hit the panic button very often, but the Yankees have reached that point of the season. It really is now or never. After this seven game stretch, the Yankees will have about 30 games remaining in the season and if they find themselves on the outside looking in, it may be time to start thinking about how they make themselves better for '08. I'm not going to give my recommendations at this point. That would make it seem as if I'm giving up on this season, which I am not. The Yankees can still make the playoffs, they can still catch the Red Sox, but it will require some heroic efforts on the part of the players. The next week will show us whether those heroes will indeed appear.

The Empire Strikes Back

The Yankees have remade their bullpen over the past month and from the small sample that we've seen so far, it seems to be working. At the trade deadline, all the talk was about that fact that the Red Sox had sealed the pennant by trading for Eric Gagne. The Yankees had tried to get Gagne, but the asking price was too high. Gagne was the closer in Texas at the time and is the all time record holder for consecutive saves. Of course he set that record about 5 arm surgeries and 15 trips to the DL ago, but he had put up very good numbers for the Rangers. The Red Sox already had an All-Star set up man in Okajima, but they proceeded to make Gagne their primary set up man. Since taking over that role, he has blown 2 saves, lost another game and has an ERA over 12. It may turn out to be that the best trade the Yankees made at the deadline was in making no deal at all.

The Yankee bullpen, which was woefully mismanaged by Torre at the beginning of the season, may in fact become a strength down the stretch. Joba Chamberlain has electrified Yankee fans with his 99MPH fastball and his 90MPH slider. He has already won over the traditionally hard to please fans and his entry into games is almost as anticipated as Mariano's. Torre has strict guidelines about his use which have become known as the Chamberlain rules. Because he has never been used as a relief before this season, he cannot pitch on consecutive days and he must have the same amount of days of rest as innings pitched. He is projected as a starter next year and the Yankees are doing everything they can to protect his valuable right arm. Edwar Ramirez struck out the side in his first inning of work yesterday and his change up is almost as devestating as Chamberlain's slider. Luis Vizcaino has taken over the primary set up role and has done a stellar job since overcoming his early season over use. Even Kyle Farnsworth has shown signs of life with four consecutive scoreless appearances, including striking out both Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez (the leagues leading hitter) in his last outing.

One of points I made earlier in the season when the Yankees were floundering, was that Torre needed to make better use of his bullpen. He relied on the same people consistently and eventually they wore down. His use of the bullpen this weekend was very judicious and they all did their job. The bullpen went the entire series against the Tigers (who are second only to the Yankees in hitting in the AL) without giving up a run. That speaks volumes to how far they have come in a very short time. Of course this could all turn around against the Angels, but for now they have turned what was a weakness into a strength. Mariano Rivera, uncharacteristically had three subpar performances in a row before righting the ship on Saturday afternoon, but he is still the most imposing figure on the mound in baseball. He is human and he will get beat occasionally, but with a game, series or season on the line, there is no one I would rather see on the mound.

The Yankees still have an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but they certainly seemed better armed than they were just a month ago. Four games doesn't seem like all that daunting a task, especially for a team that has been as far as 14-1/2 games behind the Red Sox, but the schedule for the remainder of the season favors the Sox and the Yankees are going to have to take at least four of their six remaining head to head contests to have a realistic chance of overtaking them. The Red Sox do not look like a team on the verge of collapse and with their formidable rotation, they should be able to avoid any prolonged slumps. It's still the Red Sox pennant to lose. Of course if Gagne continues to cough up games, all bets are off. Beware of what you wish for, Red Sox fans, you might just get it.

Georgie Best

A new article in Portfolio magazine claims that George Steinbrenner is in a bloated and bewildered state at his home in Florida. According to the magazine George is not capable of even carrying on a conversation at this point. If this is true it would be a sad ending to one of the most colorful and storied ownership periods in recent sports history. George bought the Yankees from CBS for $10 million (the franchise in now worth in excess of $1 billion) in 1973 with the stated goal of returning the once proud franchise to its former glory. He also said that he would be a hands off owner and let the baseball people handle the on field decision making. One out of two ain't bad. George did indeed return the Yankees to their former position as the signature franchise of the sport, but hands off he was not.

George's resume includes a virtual merry-go-round of managers during the late seventies and eighties (Billy Martin alone was hired and fired four times), a two year suspension for trying to dig up dirt on one of his own players, 15 AL east crowns (the '81 season technically had two champions for each division because of the mid-season strike by the players, the Yankees were the first half champs), 10 AL championships and 6 World Series crowns. George became the most controversial and successful owner in sports. George took full advantage when free agency hit baseball in the middle of the seventies and brought in players such as Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson who would help provide the Yankees with their first championships in over a decade and a half.

George saw free agents as the way to win immediately, but this heavy reliance on the quick fix eventually led to the downfall of the team. The Yankees of the mid seventies were a team on the verge of greatness. They had been build through a combination of shrewd trades and a strong minor league system. The addition of a few key players through free agency then propelled them to two consecutive World Championships. George then assumed that he could always restock his team by either trading for veterans or signing free agents. The minor league system suffered as a result. The Yankees consistently traded away their top minor league players for established major leaguers. In fact the only player who came out of the Yankee minor league system and made a significant contribution during the eighties was Don Mattingly. George's tactics would change every year depending on who had won the World Series the year before. He actually tried to turn the Yankees into a speed team one year because it had been successful for the St. Louis Cardinals. The began to struggle for an identity and they went the decade of the eighties without a championship. It was in fact the first time that a Yankee team had gone 0 for a decade. The Yankees entered a prolonged stretch of not even reaching the playoffs. They went from 1982-1995 without such an appearance.

In fact the best thing that happened to the Yankees as an organization was when the commissioner banned George from the team for his attempt to dig up dirt on Dave Winfield. George hired an ex-con to investigate Winfield and see if there were any improprieties in his charitable organization. George had signed Winfield as a replacement for Reggie Jackson, but was not happy with the fact that Winfield's teams had not had the same results as the Jackson years. He even labeled Winfield "Mr. May" after his 1 for 23 performance in the 1981 World series. After his attempt to discredit his own player was discovered, George was banned from all baseball decisions for two years. This meant that Gene Michael was left in charge of day to day baseball operations. The change in leadership probably saved Bernie Willams from being traded and the Yankees began to slowly rebuild toward respectability. When George returned, the Yankees were beginning to show signs of life and he actually began to take the advice of his baseball people a little more seriously. The suspension was actually the foundation for the dynasty of the late 90's.

The Yankees went on to win four of five World Series and appear in six of eight from '96-'03. George was in his glory, but like all good things the title run came to end. George has spent a lot of money and the Yankees have continued to win, but they have not been able to repeat the magic of those glory years. George has been at times vilified in the press and over the years there have been players who have said that they wouldn't play for the Yankees regardless of how much money they were offered, yet in a Sports Illustrated poll of major leaguers that came out recently, the Yankees were at the top of the list of teams that players would like to play for. George has been a loud mouthed, over the top owner at times, but no one has ever questioned his will to win. He has made a lot of errors over the years, but they were errors of commission, not omission. Even his worst critic couldn't accuse George of not trying.

So George will leave behind an interesting legacy whenever his run as owner ends. As the great philosopher Plato once said or maybe it was Charles Dickens, it was the best of times it was the worst of times. He certainly had a lot of ups and downs along the way, but no can ever say that it was boring.

Bombs Away!

The Yankees put on a offensive show for the ages over the weekend against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. They put up 45 runs over three games. In the last two that had back to back 20 hit games for the first time in Yankees history. They were clicking on all cylinders as every starter had at least one hit, drove in at least one run and scored at least one. Shelley Duncan is doing his best Shane Spencer impersonation and Arod continued his march towards 500 home runs. It was the kind of offensive show that the Yankees were supposed to be capable of coming out of spring training. The injury to Jason Giambi and the subpar performances of Cano, Matsui, Damon and Abreu had led to the offense being inconsistent at best. Arod, Posada and Jeter had carry the load for the first three months of the season and the Yankees record was a result of that. Damon still isn't doing much but with Cano pushing his average over .290 and Matsui's recent power surge, the offense is starting produce like a well oiled machine.

The Yankees currently sit 7.5 games behind the Red Sox in the east. The Sox started out the season 35-15 and have been at .500 since then. They had the opportunity to bury the Yankees but did not take advantage. They still currently posses the largest divisional lead in all of baseball so there is no real reason for panic in Red Sox nation, but they have given the Yankees and their fans some reason for hope. The Yankees currently have about a 9% chance of winning the division. In fact, if the Sox were to play .600 ball or something close to that, the Yankees would have absolutely no shot of winning the division. As it stands now, the Yankees have to play close to .700 ball just to have a shot at winning 95 games, which is about what it has taken on average to win the AL east.

The Yankees have painted themselves into a very tight corner. They cannot afford a streak, of any length, of poor play. If they were to lose seven out of ten at any point over the next two months, their playoff chances will be finished. Are they capable of a three month streak of excellence? The short answer is yes, but the odds, much like their playoff chances, are very slim. It's still fun to watch Arod put up a season for the ages, but in the Bronx, the only thing that matters is winning. A team with a $200 million payroll isn't supposed to flounder for half the season as they have done. While the pitching injuries have been many, the rest of league isn't exactly crying over the Yankees misfortune. The Yankees still have the talent and desire to get back to the playoffs, but everything, and I mean everything, has to go their way from here on out. They need every bad hop, blown call, misjudged fly ball and act of God to go their way. That along with excellent, consistent play will give them a chance (just a chance) to make the playoffs. Beating the hell out of Tampa Bay is nice, but they've got a long hard road ahead of them if they are to make the post season for the 13th straight year.

Waiting Game

The Yankees changed their position of not negotiating with players during the season as they looked to ink Alex Rodriquez to a contract extension. Before the start of the season, the Yankees stated publicly that they would not negotiate with players during the season, but would wait until after the season to decide what the needs of the team where and whether it made sense to resign the players. Both Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada can be free agents at the end of the season. The Yankees position on Arod was that he was already under contract so there was no reason to even discuss negotiating even though they were well aware of the opt out clause in his contract.

Arod is currently in the midst of what may very well turn out to be his finest season. In fact, if he continues at his current pace, he will finish with numbers that haven't been seen in the bronx since the days of the M&M boys in 1961 (Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris both made runs at the single season home run record that year with Mantle ending up at 54 and Roger breaking the record with 61) . It is very clear that Arod is going to opt out of his contract at the end of year. He would be 35 at the end of his current contract and a 32 year old free agent is a much more attractive target. Although he is currently the highest paid athlete in the history of North American sports, he will be in line for an even bigger contract at the end of the season. His agent, the reviled (by management) Scott boras, has already stated that Arod will be paid over $30 million a season in the last two years of his current contract and so it seems certain that the bidding for Arod's services will start somewhere in that neighborhood.

Arod certainly hasn't been treated particularly well during his time in New York. The fans and the press have been particularly hard on him. He changed positions when he came to the Yankees and while he struggled in '06, his defense for the most part has bordered on spectacular. He was seemingly never given credit for having made that concession in order to play here. He currently sits one home run away from the record for most home runs hit by a shortstop. I'm not sure that he is overly concerned with it, but I'm sure the Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox or Angels would be happy to have him man that position for them. There are very few clubs that are in a financial position to sign Arod, but the the four or five clubs that are, will put on the full court press in order to get him on their side.

The Yankees will have 10 days after the end of the World Series to have exclusive negotiating rights with Arod. They are still in the best position to sign Arod to a contract. The Yankees will look to sign him to an extension because if he plays under his current deal for the next three years, the Texas Rangers would be on the hook for a significant portion of $81 million that would be remaining on his contract at the end of this year. Given his current position, Arod would probably be able to extract a 5 year extension in the neighborhood of $125- $150 million. That would bring his total baseball earnings to a staggering $400 million. Of course he could opt out of his deal and then look for an 8 year contract in the $240 million range. At this point, the ball is totally in Arod's court. He has reestablished himself as the best player in baseball and he is clearly the most indispensable player in the Yankees lineup.

I'm not really sure what Arod is going to do. He has of course stated publicly that he wants to stay in New York, but he couldn't really say anything else without incurring the wrath of the fans and the media. His legacy would certainly be cemented if he were to win a World Series or two in the Bronx. There would be a plaque in monument park, a retired number hanging on the wall, he would go in to the hall of fame wearing a Yankees cap and he would forever be linked to the Yankee greats of the past. I have no idea if this means anything at all to him though. The prospects of a new start might be more appealing to him. If he signed with the Angels, the press would be too busy following the hijinks's of Lindsey Lohan and Paris Hilton to worry about what strip club Arod was visiting or what woman he was seen with. Signing with the Red Sox would put him in another baseball obsessed town, but he could be a constant thorn in the side of the Yankees. Even signing with the Mets might be an option if he really wanted to get back at the Yankees.

The bottom line is that this was a major blunder by the Yankees front office. While Arod said before the season that he was not planning to opt out of his contract, you, me and the American people all knew that he would. The Yankees were under some sort of group self delusion that Arod wouldn't at least test the free agent waters at the end of the season. I don't know if they could have gotten an extension done in the pre-season, but at least they could have gotten the wheels in motion. Perhaps they were hoping that Arod would have a sub par year and would decide to honor his contract. That mistake is about to cost the team a lot of money. They have been down this road before however. When Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra were the hot young shortstops in the American League, Nomar signed a 4 year deal that paid him an average of about $10 million a year. The Yankees should have followed suit with Jeter, but instead went the arbitration route with him every year until they had to sign him to a contract. By waiting two extra years, they were forced to give him a contract that averaged $20 million a year. They were shortsighted then and they are now. They have the money to get it done, but it remains to be seen whether Arod has the will to get it done.

Hop on the Bandwagon

The New York Yankees are suddenly the hottest team in baseball. The press is falling all over themselves to try and pinpoint the reason for their sudden turnaround. The theories have gone from putting Melky in CF to Miguel Cairo taking over at first base to Roger Clemens showing up to (surprisingly) Arod being pictured with a woman who was not his wife in Toronto. However for the faithful readers of my column, it's clear that the turnaround can be traced to this! That's right, my friends. The Yankees have reeled off 13 wins in 15 games since I gave them the formula for fixing what ailed them. And while most of the credit goes to the players on the field, I have to give myself a pat on the back for showing them the way. Of course no one in the Yankees organization is going to admit to reading my blog, but trust me they are doing it (That's right, Brian. The jig is up!).

So now that the Yankees are rolling, it's just amazing to see the attitude of the local writers turn around. All of sudden it's the Yankees that can do no wrong. The Yankees hot streak has happened to coincide with an almost identical streak of futility from the Mets. The Mets have only managed 3 wins this month so far and their once healthy lead in the NL East has shrunk to 1-1/2 games over the Braves and 2 games over the Phillies. The New York press, which is always looking for a reason to say that the Mets are better than the Yankees, have had two months of absolute bliss while the Yankees struggled. Of course that same group of writers is now just as quick to point out the flaws of struggling Mets team.

The basic truth of sports is that no team is as ever as good as it looks when it's playing well and conversely, no team is as bad as it looks when it's playing poorly. I never understood why that is such a hard concept for fans and writers alike to understand. The Mets and Yankees are both good teams. They will play up to the level of their talent over a 162 game season. There will be ups and downs, but basically they are both more than capable of winning 90+ games and they both probably will. Hopefully that will keep fans and sportswriters alike from jumping off the deep end or printing playoff tickets at the next losing or winning streak from either team.

I just have one more bone to pick with the sportswriters in town and that is that in the first half of last year they anointed David Wright as the best third baseman in town. The funny thing is that I don't hear anyone making those kind of pronouncements this year. David Wright is a fine player, but he is not, I repeat not, in Arod's class. Wright hit 26 home runs in 582 at-bats last season, Arod has 27 in 251 at-bats this season. Arod in a supposed down season for him hit 35 home runs and drove in 121 runs and had an OPS of .915. Wright's numbers were 26, 116 and .859. Admittedly, those are great numbers for a 24 year old, but when Arod was the same age his numbers were 41, 132 and 1.026. David Wright may very well be the best third baseman in the National League, but Arod is one of the greatest hitters ever to play the game. So please let's stop this nonsense of comparing the two players. The truth of the matter is that Arod probably isn't going to be playing for the Yankees next year, so thankfully the writers won't have to embarrass themselves anymore.

Pot Luck

The Yankees had an interesting weekend in Boston. They managed to win 2 out of 3 and gain a game on the front running Red Sox. Arod quited the Boston crowd with a 9th inning home run off the seemingly invincible John Papplebon. The Yankees even managed to push across a run against the previously untouchable Okajima. There were a lot of good signs in the first (The Yankees continued their recent dominance of Tim Wakefield in the first game by knocking him out in the 4th inning)and third games of the series, but the Yankees had one of their worst innings of the year in game two. Bobby Abreu misplayed a ball in right field that he should have caught, the Yankees failed to complete two perfect inning ending double plays, Derek Jeter committed two errors and infielders were out of position on a base hit to left field. The Yankees squandered three separate leads in the game and eventually lost by a score of 12-6.

The Yankees also lost first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz for a couple of months after he suffered a concussion, a bruised spinal column and a concussion in a collision with Mike Lowell while trying to field and errant throw from Jeter. The weekend also included a bench clearing incident after a high and tight fastball from Scott Proctor in the ninth inning of the first game. All in all, the usual Yankees-Red Sox gathering. There was an incident that I think deserves some notice. Mike Lowell threw a cross body block on Robinson Cano as the second baseman attempted to tag him before completing a double play. Cano had come into the base path to field the grounder and as he attempted to tag Lowell, he was greeted with a block that would have make Bill Belicheck proud. Cano managed to complete the throw to first and was seemingly unhurt on the play. Tim McCarver went through great lengths to point out that it was a clean play. According to the rules, the base runner is entitled the base path, but, in my thirty years or so of watching baseball, I have never seen a runner try and take out an infielder on that kind of play. Most try to avoid the tag, but trying to run over the infielder is not something that happens on a regular basis. The only player who is generally subject to that kind of collision is the catcher. The reason I'm pointing this out is because I'm fairly sure that if Arod had done the same thing, the uproar would have been loud and lasting. Arod's yell last week in a game against the Blue Jays, has been the subject of ongoing debate since it happened. I will point out that the Yankees had already taken a two run lead and had Mariano Rivera on the mound. I'm not saying that the game was totally out of reach, but the odds were pretty good that the Yankees were going to win the game. Arod's "play" helped the Yankees tack on three more runs, but it was basically inconsequential to the outcome of the game. That did not stop the firestorm that followed, however. Arod cannot do anything these days without inviting an avalanche of criticism. I'm fairly sure that trying to take out an infielder, on what should have been a fairly routine double play ball would have led to the same.

Finally I saw that Lou Pinella was suspended by the commissioner's office for making contact with an umpire during an argument. There was a many a voice over the winter that called for Pinella to be hired as the manager of the Yankees. I just want to point out that his team has gotten off to an even worst start than the Yankees have. They are closer to the top of the standings because he plays in the very weak central division of the national league, but Lou has blown his top on many occasions this season, to seemingly little effect. His team is still playing like crap. It just goes to show two things: Yelling at your players doesn't always motivate them to play any better and Lou Pinella is not a great manager. I've always contended that there are very few managers who actually make a difference in the standings. Billy Martin was probably the best at turning a team around and stealing games with managing tactics. For the most part managers either benefit or are hurt by the talent around them. How much of a genius does Tony LaRussa look like this year? Albert Pujols has gotten off to a slow start and the Cardinals are 6 games under .500. Hell, they almost blew a 8 game lead with less than two weeks to go last year. The bottom line is that it's the players that win and lose games. Talented teams will win. End of story.

P.S.

I just wanted to pat myself on the back again for something I wrote a few weeks ago. As Roger Clemens struggles with a groin injury and the Yankees apparently contemplate whether to terminate the deal before Clemens reaches the majors (and they are then obligated to pay him the full $18 million), I have to say that I could see this coming. Here's what I wrote back on May 7th:

The biggest problem with signing a 44 year old (He turns 45 in August) is that they are basically pitching on borrowed time. Nolan Ryan had the most remarkable pitching arm I have ever seen. He could basically dominate hitters with his fastball until the day he retired at age 46. Nolan would probably still be pitching if his legs didn't give out. The same can be said of Roger Clemens. He has never had any serious arm problems and will probably be able to pitch until his legs give out. When will that be? No one knows, including Roger. He will get himself into great pitching shape, but there comes a time when although the heart is willing the body is not. Roger wont' be felled by arm problems, but his demise will probably come through a series of lingering hamstring and groin pulls. We've already seen what hamstring problems have done to the Yankees pitching staff this season and Roger is certainly not immune to those issues.

So for all you faithful readers out there, I promise to do my best to keep coming up with that kind of insightful commentary. Of course the fact that I can come up with those kind of comments just means that instead of doing something productive with my life, I have wasted a huge chunk of it watching baseball. Oh well, no one ever accused me of being smart. A jackass, yes, but smart, not so much.

I'm Your Handy Man

The Yankees won a game last night and actually picked up ground on the Red Sox for the first time in about 10 days. Since the Red Sox left Yankee Stadium after losing 2 of 3 with a 9-1/2 game lead, the Yankees have gone into a tailspin. They now sit 13-1/2 games behind the Sox and 7-1/2 games out of the wild card spot. So I have some good news and some bad news today. The good news is that I know exactly what the Yankees need to do to fix their team. The bad news is that no one at Yankee Stadium listens to me.

1. Don't panic. This is the most important thing that the team can do at this point. It's pretty clear by the deficit in the standings that things have not gone according to plan. The worst thing that they could do at this point would be to start making wholesale changes, either in the front office or on the field. The team that started the season is good enough to make the playoffs, they just need to start playing better.


2. Stop messing with the lineup. Moving players all over the lineup just messes with their preparation for the days game. Players (for whatever reason) like to know where they are hitting in the lineup. Bobby Abreu has been a #3 hitter for the last five years and so he should remain there. I know he's not hitting right now, but outside of Jeter and Posada, neither is anyone else. He will come around as will the rest of the team and it probably doesn't help his psyche any to be "demoted" to a lower spot in the lineup.


3. The hitters need to be more patient. The Yankees used to pride themselves on being able to wear down an opposition starter. They used to take more pitches than any team in baseball. During their recent stretch of futility, that all went out the window. It seemed the hitters couldn't wait to get back to the dugout. During their most recent series, they lost to a couple of first year pitchers. Both went deep into the game and the Yankees continually swung at the first offering from both pitchers. That is not the way the Yankees play. Giambi, Abreu, Jeter, Arod and Damon are supposed to wear out opposing pitchers and get on base about 40% of the time they come to the plate. That is not happening. Johnny Damon swung at the first pitch, with the Yankees down by a run in the 9th inning. That is just not fundamentally sound baseball. They need to get back to doing the thing that made the lineup so dangerous. Take some pitches guys. It ain't gonna kill you.


4. Torre needs to manage the bullpen better. If there is one consistent criticism of Joe Torre that can be made it's that he doesn't manage the bullpen very well. Joe falls in love with certain pitchers and overworks them. Currently his favorite is Scott Proctor. Proctor is currently on pace to work in about 100 games for the Yankees this year. That is simply too much. Joe has to learn to trust some of the other pitchers in the pen. Mariano has seen stretches where he hasn't pitched for 5 games. Joe needs to get him regular work so that when he's called upon to save a game, he's not rusty from sitting around for a week. I know that Mo blew some saves earlier in the year, but he still has to be used regularly. Brian Bruney has been very good so far, but Joe hasn't been as eager to call him out of the pen as he has Proctor. They also need to have a long reliever who can take the strain off of the bullpen during blowout games. I know that it's not exactly popular to be the guy who mops up, but someone should assume that mantle. If a game gets out of hand, Joe likes to run through the entire bullpen to finish up the game. That just means that most likely they won't be as fresh if he really needs them the next day. One of the kids from Triple A needs to be that long guy/spot starter who can soak up some innings if things get out of hand early.


5. The starting pitching has been better than most people think. The Yankees have had their share of blowout games, but given the amount of injuries that the starting staff has faced, they have performed fairly well. Roger Clemens shows up next week to add another quality arm to the staff, so they should in theory get even better. It would be nice to get Phillip Hughes back to see what he can do, but he's out for at least another month. Andy Pettitte should sue for lack of support. His ERA is in the top 5 in the AL but he has a losing record because the Yankees are not scoring any runs when he pitches. Wang and Mussina are still working back from injuries, but I have no doubt that they will become more consistent as time goes on. I'm more than willing to live with a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina and one of the kids (Hughes, Clippard, DeSalvo, etc.).


6. Doug Mientkiewicz is a defensive replacement. Joe has insisted on using him as the de facto starting first baseman for the majority of the season. He simply doesn't hit enough anymore to be a starter. The Yankees have had Josh Phelps on then bench for most of the season. I have no idea whether Phelps is the answer, but he has to be given more of a shot that he has been given to date. He's younger and has a lot more power potential than Mientkiewicz. Joe has been stubborn about this. There are times, when the lineup is going well, that they can afford to carry a subpar bat. Now is not one of those times however. This is an easy change and can be made immediately. Defense at first base is a nice thing, but it is primarily a power position and that is certainly not what we are getting with Mientkiewicz. Everyone, join in with me, "all we are saaaa - ying, is gives Phelps a chance" (I know that was terrible).


7. The purpose of the game isn't that the Yankee players have fun. The press keeps harping on the fact that the Yankees don't look like they are having any fun when they play. The reason they aren't having any fun is because they are losing. It's a lot of fun when you win. I'm sure Red Sox are having a ball right now, but when they got swept in a five game series in Fenway last year, that didn't look like any fun. The game isn't about fun. It's about winning and losing. People always talk about how corporate the Yankees appear. Well currently they are a corporation that is losing money. The good news is that they have the talent to turn this thing around immediately. They need to be reminded that they are well payed individuals who have a job to do and that is to win games, not to have fun. That's what the offseason is for. Win now, have fun later.


8. They need to try and remember who they are. The Yankees somehow have forgotten that they are the nine time defending AL east champs. Their confidence has evaporated. They need to get back to thinking that they are going to win every time they step out on the field. Right now it looks like they are just waiting for something to go wrong in every game. Perhaps Roger Clemens will part of the solution. He certainly can't hurt.



9. And finally (I hate using sports cliches, but here goes), take it one day at a time. It's impossible for the Yankees to catch the Red Sox or turn their season around in one game. The press likes to look for signs and after winning the most recent Red Sox series, I read a couple of articles claiming that the Yankees had gotten their swagger back. Well, apparently they hadn't. One game or one series does not a season make. Regardless of the seeming importance of a game in May, it will not make or break a season. The team needs to go out and think of each day as a new opportunity to succeed. Looking up at a 13-1/2 game deficit might bury some teams, but it shouldn't have that effect on the Yankees. This is one instance where their age should come in handy. Most of the players on the team have been around for a long time and they realize exactly how long the season is and how quickly things can change.

So that's it. My cure for what ails the Yankees. The bottom line is that every day is not Armageddon. At some point this season might be a lost cause. But that day is not today and it's not tomorrow either. The Yankees still have time to make this a season to remember. Overcoming adversity is what defines greatness. This Yankee team has the talent and the opportunity to create the next Yankee legend.