If It Aint Broke...

Another week of NFL picks and another week of the now legendary SM*. Here are the picks for the weekend:

Cleveland +4

Minnesota +1

Buffalo +3.5

St. Louis +13

Tampa Bay +3

Kansas City +11.5

Giants +2.5

Detroit +2.5

Atlanta +2.5

Oakland +4

San Francisco +1

Denver +11

Arizona +6

Cincy +7.5

There you have it. The SM* was about 60% accurate last year, so you can start planning all the great things you are going to do with your winnings.

*The SM was invented by Bruce Spiegler and he used it to win our football pool back in law school. He now lives a quiet life with his wife and five sons. He has yet to use his method to make himself rich, but even to this day he reminds us of his season of glory.

Fighting Chance

The Yankees clinched their 13th straight postseason appearance last night in Tampa Bay. It was perhaps their most difficult job to date. In 1995 they had to play almost flawless baseball down the stretch to make the playoffs, but that team didn't have the expectations that this team did. With a $200 million payroll and an All-Star at almost every position, the Yankees staggered out of the starting gate and sat 14-1/2 games out of first and eight games under .500 on May 29th. Many baseball "experts" at that time proclaimed that the Yankees string of playoff appearances was at an end. The Yankees were floundering and they didn't seem capable of playing at the level that would be necessary to carry them to a playoff berth. However since that day, the Yankees have the best record in baseball at 70-38 and have assured themselves of at least a chance to win their 27th World Championship. I'm not one to toot my own horn, but I'm pretty sure their turnaround can be traced to this article.

The Yankees righted the ship and have played inspired baseball for the past three months. They head into the playoffs as one of the favorites to win it all. Of course, this is an all too familiar scenario. The Yankees headed into last year's playoffs as the betting favorite to win it all and were summarily dismissed by the Detroit Tigers in four games. The Yankees have a seemingly favorable match up in the first round (as they did last year), and enough time to rest their players and get everyone healthy before the postseason begins. Nothing is guaranteed in the playoffs though. Last year the Yankees faced a Tiger team that limped into the playoffs after blowing a huge lead at the All-Star break. They didn't have many players on the team with playoff experience, they had been dominated by the Yankees during the regular season and they seemed a perfect first round match up for the Yankees. This year the Indians seem the most likely first round opponent for the Yankees. The Yankees once again dominated them during the regular season and they have few players on their team with playoff experience. Unlike the Tigers last year however, the Indians are playing very well and if they end up with the best record in the AL, they will have the choice of being able to use their two best pitchers twice in a 5 game series.

The playoffs really are a crapshoot. The Cardinals and Tigers limped into the playoffs last year and ended up in the World Series. The Cardinals won the Series despite winning only 83 games during the regular season and almost blowing a seven game lead with two weeks remaining. I can certainly see a scenario where the Yankees win it all (Arod gets hot/Rocket comes back/Joba & Mo are perfect), but I can just as easily imagine them being beaten in the first round. At this point of the season, I make no guarantees. The Yankees have done what they set out to do at the beginning of the season. As the old tag line for the NY Lotto used to say, "you've got to be in it to win it". Well, the Yankees are in it, it just remains to be seen whether they will have the good luck and skill to win it all.

Happy Trails

The Spiegler Method went 10-6 (including Monday Night) over the weekend. A pretty good first week. I'll hopefully have some more in depth analysis before next weeks games, but I think I'm just going to keep rolling with the SM for now. Oh, and how about them Cowboys!

Picks & Pans

The football season is two weeks old and I have yet to make any picks. As I said yesterday, I'm pretty much swamped with work and extra curricular activities. My picks this week will follow the tried and true Spiegler method*. That means picking every underdog, regardless of the spread. I'll be back sometime next week to give you the rundown on how this turned out.

Have a good weekend everybody.








* Patent Pending

Sorry

I have to apologize to my regular readers for not updating the blog recently. I'm in the middle of making a movie and things have been pretty busy at work as well. I promise to throw up the occasional post and try to keep you entertained. The movie wraps in November and I will once again start posting with a vengeance (of course it'll be the baseball off season and I might not have much to say). Thanks for your patience and as General MacArthur once proclaimed, "I shall return".

Odds and Ends (cont.)

What a difference a week and a half can make! The Yankees playoff odds have now reached 90+%. The Mariners have fallen off the map and have odds of less than 1%. The Tigers are now the Yankees main competition for the Wildcard spot with odds of about 9%. Of course this could all turn around next week, but the Steve Phillips curse in reverse seems to working to perfection. His prediction that both the Mets (99.4% playoff odds) and Yankees would miss the playoffs is looking more and more ridiculous each day. His prediction that the Rockies (11%) would win the Wildcard also seems to be a very long shot. All I have to say is thanks, Steve. And keep on making those predictions. Just don't pick the Yankees to win anything.

Hypocrisy

I was watching the Cowboys-Giants game last night and saw the Nike ad with Shawne Merriman numerous times last night. The same Shawne Merriman who was suspended last season for taking steroids. He was suspended for only four games and in fact came in third in the voting for defensive player of the year. Seeing the light punishment and how little it appears to have affected his image got me thinking about one of me favorite topics, Barry Bonds.

If you've been a regular reader of this blog, you'll know that I am far from being one of Barry's fans or apologists. In my opinion it is very clear that Barry did something outside of the rules (either written or unwritten) to improve his performance. He has been punished by the fans and writers for a long time and is used as the poster boy for all things wrong with sports. However, is his offense really any worse than Merriman's? Remember that for all the supposed evidence against Bonds, he has never been caught with anything. He has never tested positive for anything (except some stimulants, but that was a long standing tradition in baseball locker rooms that was just recently outlawed), so why has he been consistentloy persecuted while Merriman has seemed to suffer no backlash from the fans or the media?

There is clearly a double standard at play. For some reason, Football players are not veiwed in the same way as baseball players. Baseball is veiwed through rose colored glasses, while Football is viewed as a sport played by larger than life men who are forgiven for stepping over the line every once in a while. There have been numerous incidents in which Football players have been caught using illegal drugs, been a party to or helped cover up violent crimes, abused their spouses and it all seems to be okay in the eyes of the fans and the press. Michael Vick has been the one exception, but his crimes were against animals (which apparently are unforgiveable as opposed to beating your wife or kids, or helping cover up a murder OF A HUMAN BEING). Because of the violent nature of Football it seems the press and fans are willing to put up with their athletes being somewhat sub-human. If they step over the line occassionally, it's forgiven because they are supposed to brutes.

Baseball is our national pastime and as such is percieved in a totally different light. Baseball players are seen as regular people. They are like the guy who lives next door (I personally have met a few Major Leaguers and trust me they do not look like the guy who lives next door to me). Because the public and the press view them this way, they are held to a higher standard. Would you want a drug abuser living next door to you? Of course not and they don't want one playing Baseball either. Even a Football player who is not one of the supposed "brutes" is forgiven for crossing the line. Brett Favre had a substance abuse problem, but all was forgiven because he's an all-american boy who happens to play Football and it's a violent sport and so what if he had to take some pills, he's being hit by neanderthals repeatedly.

I have no sympathy for Barry Bonds because he did everything that he did willingly. No ne forced him to allegedly take steroids. He wasn't concerned with the consequences and therefore he deserves what he got (the home run record and the public scorn). I'm just pointing out that if one drug abuser and law breaker is viewed that way, then why aren't they all viewed that way? Being contrite in public and making an effort to change can get you a second chance with the public and press, but clearly they are more willing to forgive some and not others. Most athletes who are caught taking performance enhancing drugs seemingly always blame it on a tainted legal supplement that they were taking or on a teammate or trainer who gave them something without their knowledge. Football players are forgiven, Baseball players are raked over the coals. The recent revelation that Rick Ankiel, who was the feel good story of the season (and probably would have been named comeback player of the year), took a shipment of HGH before it was officially banned by Baseball, will be a good barometer of the difference between the treatment given to players in the two sports. Ankiel will forever be marked as a player who took performance enhancing drugs, while Merriman will probably go on to be named the defensive player of the year in the NFL.