I'm Number One!

Bret Favre has held the Green Bay Packers hostage for the better part of a decade. There was a time when Bret was the best QB in the NFL. That was about 10 years ago. The Packers have ceased to be relevant to everyone but their own fans since they lost in the Super Bowl to the John Elway led Broncos in 1998. Favre performed at a very high level for years after the Packers were no longer a serious Super Bowl threat and is now approaching the career marks set by Dan Marino. The problem with Favre is that he is preventing the Packers from making any real progress.

It's clear that the Packers need to start grooming a QB for the future. They thought they had that when they drafted QB Aaron Rogers a couple of years ago. In the two seasons that Rogers has been with the team, he has thrown a total of 31 passes. So much for grooming a QB for the future. Is Rogers the QB of the future in Green Bay? They'll never be able to find out until Bret retires. And if he turns out to be a bust, then they will have wasted at least one more season to figure that out. Favre has done his annual "will I retire" dance for the past two seasons, but anyone who has been observing him had to have known that he would never retire with the all time records within his grasp. He has to know (as anyone who watches football would) that the Packers are not a serious threat to win anything, but he claims that he's coming back because he feels the Packers can make an impact in the playoffs. However, in order to make an impact in the playoffs, you must first make the playoffs. The Packers haven't done that since the 2004 season.

Favre was also complaining recently about the fact that the Packers didn't get Randy Moss. Now I have no idea if Randy Moss would have been any good in Green Bay (given the weather there, I personally doubt it), but I'm sure that Bret Favre is not the Packers GM. He may think that he is, but I've looked up his record and I can't find any story about him being named the Packers GM. It might have been funny to see Randy and Bret together. It would have been quite a competition to see who is, in fact, the most selfish player in the league.

Bret also prides himself on being a fantastic teammate and leader and yet I can remember a couple of instances where he inserted himself into a teammates contract negotiation on the side of management. He harangued one of his receivers into playing even though he was initially holding out for a long term deal. The receiver hurt his knee in the first game of the season and that long term deal was history. It's really easy for Bret to say that his teammates shouldn't be concerned with money since he's already made about $100 million. I'm pretty sure that Bret would have been less than enthused about a contract that was not among the highest in average salary among QB's. Of course he's never had to worry about that, because he's royalty in Green Bay. However, his teammates have never been so lucky.

Bret is only 6 TD passes and about 3,800 yards behind Marino for the all time records. He will definitely get the TD record and if for some reason he doesn't get the yardage record, expect to see him drag himself back out on the field for just one more season. He isn't playing for the team anymore. He's playing for himself. His best chance to win would be to demand a trade to a contending team and hope that the starter gets hurt. A team like Baltimore could have used him last year. Perhaps he would have been able to succeed in the playoffs with a team like that. So enjoy the records Bret, but don't try and lie to us and say that you are coming back to help the team. You're coming back to help yourself, plain and simple.

Chips and Dip

I guess I have to post a Superbowl prediction. As you have all been able to tell from my incredibly off target picks during the season, I'm not much a football prognosticator. The odds favor the Colts. There are the great story lines of Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison finally reaching the big game. The Bears probably have more fans around the country than almost any other team and they carry the label of underdogs very well, even though they finished as the #1 seed in the NFC.

The big question is going to be whether Rex Grossman comes out and stinks up the joint. He had four games this season with a QB rating of under 20. I think he was under 10 in a couple of them. He can be downright terrible. His job should be to try and not lose the game. That's it. He doesn't have to win it, just try not to lose it. If he can manage that, the Bears actually have a pretty good shot to win the game.

My head says that the Colts should win. They have better players at the skilled positions and Peyton is dying to get rid of that "can't win the big one" label. So of course I'm picking the Bears to win and for Rex Grossman to be the MVP of the game. After all, this is opposite year. If the Cardinals can win the World Series with a barely .500 record during the season, then why can't Rex Grossman and the Bears win the Super Bowl? The prediction: Bears 24 - Colts 16. Don't ask me how Indy gets to 16 because I don't' know. That's just my pick. There is some history in the Bears favor. Everytime the best offensive team in football has gone up against the best defensive team (in terms of yardage gained and allowed), the best defense has won every time. I believe it has happened four times in NFL history. So this will be the fifth such game.

Enjoy those Superbowl parties people. I'll be back on Monday to review just how wrong I was.

Yippee Ki Yay, Motherf*****

The Cowboys moved into a tie for the NFC east lead this weekend with a win over the previously undefeated Colts and a loss by the suddenly struggling Giants. The Giants who seemed on their way to the Superbowl a couple of weeks ago are suddenly playing like a team that has lost it's way. They Cowboys who looked like they were on their way to another mediocre season have turned into real playoff contenders over the past four weeks. The Giants have had a number of injuries that have led to their sudden downturn in play and Eli Manning is playing more like the son of Phil Simms than the son of Archie Manning.

It's easy to pinpoint the moment the Cowboys season turned around. It was when Parcells finally decided to insert Tony Romo into the starting lineup and relegate Drew Bledsoe to clipboard duty. Romo took over after halftime of an eventual loss to the Giants, but he has gone 3-1 since then. In fact the only loss the Cowboys suffered was to the Redskins in a game that they should have won. Romo has been steady but not spectacular as the starting QB. His QB rating is sitting at 100 for the season, which is just a half a point behind Peyton Manning for tops in the league (Bledsoe's QB rating was 69 before he got benched). The best part about his play so far is that he has been able to avoid the kind of game killing mistakes that Bledsoe seemed to be so fond of. He has thrown eight TD passes and five interceptions, but his mistakes have not been of the kind that determined the outcome of the game.

Romo has shown displayed exceptional control for someone who was thrust into the spotlight as the starting QB for "America's Team". His ability to avoid the rush and maintain his composure under pressure have already made him a favorite with his teammates. There was even a rumor that he was dating Jessica Simpson. This all comes with being successful as the Dallas Cowboys QB. If he manages to get the Cowboys deep into the playoffs this year, he will be well on his way to becoming a Texas legend. The Cowboys have been searching for a replacement for Troy Aikman for a long time and amazing as it may seem, they may just have found him in an undrafted QB from Eastern Illinois. Of course being the QB for the Cowboys has it's downside as well. It won't take much more than one bad outing for the fans to start waxing poetic about and longing for a return to Bledsoe. It is one of the risks of leading the team with the highest profile in football.

I don't really think that Parcells would change QB's again. Barring injury or a complete and total collapse, Romo has the job for the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see how far he can carry this team. In a year where there certainly doesn't seem to be any unbeatable teams, the Cowboys might have a chance to make a serious playoff push. It's seems like it's been at least a decade since the Cowboys have even won a playoff game. Perhaps that will change this year. I know that would make Toby happy. It's been a long time since she's has a QB in Dallas to look up to. And while no one will ever replace #8 in her heart, perhaps #9 will be a worthy successor on the field.

King For a Day

The Colts beat the Patriots in Foxborough (or wherever the hell they play these days) to remain unbeaten. And Peyton Manning scored a victory over his personal rival (Tom Brady) for label as the "best QB in the NFL". Manning has played Wilt chamberlain to Brady's Bill Russell for the past five years. Manning has the stats, but Brady has the championships. With the victory last night though, for today Manning is the best QB in the league. He has worn that label for a few years now, however there is always a big "but" when it comes to Manning. The "but" with Manning is that his teams have failed to advance to the Superbowl. It is true that in football especially, one player cannot singlehandedly take a team to a championship, but that hasn't stopped the criticism from coming Manning's way.

The Colts started last season with 13 consecutive wins. There were threatening to complete the first undefeated season since the '73 Dolphins. The coaching staff decided that going into the playoffs rested and healthy was more important than finishing the season undefeated. They took their foot off the gas pedal and the Colts did not finish undefeated and went on to lose to the eventual champion, the Steelers. The Colts seemed poised to win the Superbowl last year but they didn't and the finger of blame for the failure to do so, was pointed squarely at Peyton Manning. The feeling is that he is in danger of being labeled as this generations Dan Marino. He has put up record breaking numbers and is on pace to own every record in the book, but has yet to lead his team to a championship. In his second season, Marino did get a team to the Superbowl but they were crushed by the San Francisco 49ers. During that season Marino set the record for TD passes (since broken by Manning) and yards (which he still holds), but the Dolphins were simply beaten by the better team that day. Marino was never able to get the Dolphins back to the big game after that season. The team never had a solid running game (he only one 1,000 yard rusher for the rest of his career) and relied on Marino's arm to win every game. The fact that he was as successful as he was (second only to Elway in wins as a starting QB) is a testament to his abilities. However, Marino is defined not only by his phenomenal passing numbers, but also by his inability to win a Superbowl. Manning has had a good running attack for the majority of his career. He has also had a future hall of famer in Marvin Harrison to throw to. The Colts weakness has always been their defense. It hasn't been horrible, but they have never had the kind of dominating defense that can shut down an opponent in the playoffs. The truth is also that Manning has also seemed to come up small in some very big games.

Tom Brady has never put up the kind of stats that Manning has. He has very good numbers but certainly not the kind of individual stats that would place among the all time greats. However he does have something that Peyton Manning would kill for, three Superbowl victories. He has been the MVP of two of those victories and he has the reputation of being this generations Joe Montana. However, Montana had a group of hall of famers as teammates, which Brady does not. I can't think of one player on the Patriots team, with the exception of Brady, who is a sure-fire hall of famer. Montana had a "genius" head coach in Bill Walsh as Brady does in Bill Belichick. The credit for the Patriots success seems to be credited more to the coaches brain that it does the QB's arm. I'm not sure why that is. During the glory days in San Francisco, Montana and Walsh shared credit equally. Perhaps Brady isn't as flashy as Joe Montana was or perhaps he is just more low key and willing to share the credit more, but while he has gotten a few individual accolades, the credit seems more centered around the team and the coach than the player. I'm sure Brady doesn't mind at all as long as the team keeps winning. In fact the balanced attack and excellent defensive schemes in the playoffs are the reasons that the Patriots have won as much as they have. In my opinion, the underlying belief is that Brady isn't the kind of QB who can carry a team on his back (although he has never had the need to). Unlike say a Brett Favre, who has gotten much more individual attention, while leading his team to only one championship.

Manning is on the top of the heap of current NFL QB's. His regular season numbers are staggering. He is on pace to finish his career with 500 TD's and 60,000 yards. His greatness is unquestioned. What is questioned is his leadership ability. Manning will end up in the Hall of fame, and he is the unquestioned leader of the Colts. However, his legacy is undoubtedly going to end up being defined by how far he can take this team in the playoffs. Perhaps he will be like John Elway, who was labeled as "unable to win the big one", until Denver got a running game and he ended his career with two straight Superbowl victories. Seemingly overnight, Elway went from a choker to the ultimate winner. In the public's mind, all his past failures were forgotten. The same can happen to Peyton Manning. He has the talent and the team to make that happen. Until he does though, the best QB in the league label that he carries will continue to come with a big "but".

Out With The Old

The Dallas Cowboys have finally decided that Drew Bledsoe is not going to lead them to the promised land. Bill Parcells announced that Tony Romo will be the starting QB this weekend. The Drew Bledsoe era came to end with a whimper on Monday night as he threw an interception at the goal line. His record has been less than stellar but the Cowboys should have known what they were getting when they acquired him. He has a good arm, but he's a statue in the pocket. He has zero mobility and the Cowboys offensive line is not exactly going to remind anyone of the line during the glory days of the 90's. Parcells knew what he had to work with, but he still decided that Bledsoe was the answer to his QB problems. He was wrong.

Tony Romo doesn't exactly have the pedigree of a great QB, but that doesn't mean that he won't be able to do the job. Right away he gives the Cowboys a more mobile QB, which they need given the current state of their offensive line. He came in on Monday night and threw three interceptions, but also threw a couple of touchdown passes and converted a
2-point attempt. Is he the answer to the Cowboys problems? Probably not, but I don't think that he can do any worse than Bledsoe. It is time for the Cowboys to think about the future and now is as good a time as any to get started on that. Jerry Jones is certainly not a patient man and it's not like him to think about rebuilding, but it's clear that the Cowboys were never going to be any more than a mediocre team with Bledsoe at the helm.

Parcells is in the last year of his contract. That's probably a good thing, because I think it's time for this marriage to be dissolved. Parcells reputation as a football genius has certainly been tarnished somewhat by his lack of success with the Cowboys. It just goes to show you that no matter how good a coach is supposed to be, he can't win without talent (just ask Joe Gibbs in Washington how much his supposed "genius" is helping the Redskins right now). Can the right coach turn a team around? Certainly. He can change the attitude of the players and an organization. But what he cannot do is turn a mediocre team with mediocre talent into a championship team. The same is true in any sport. Is Jim Leyland a genius because of what the Tigers did this year? He's no more a genius now than he was when he sucked as the manager of the Rockies or when he couldn't get the Pirates to the World Series in the early 90's. Talent wins, and that is the bottom line. The Cowboys haven't had enough talent under Parcells to be consistent winners. The problem is that Parcells had built up his reputation as a genius. He brought with him the idea that he could single handedly turn a team around. He was wrong and so was Jerry Jones in believing that the answer was coaching and not talent.

Perhaps Bill can bench himself along with Bledsoe and they can ride off together into the sunset. Parcells hates to admit defeat, but his effect on the Cowboys has been minimal. I'm pretty sure that any other coach could have gotten the same number of wins as he has over the past 3 years. Bledsoe is a competitor and I understand that he feels disappointed over being benched, but if he were to take an honest look at the numbers that he has put up, he would see that a change was long overdue. Parcells drafted Bledsoe #1 when he was the coach of the Patriots, so perhaps it is only fitting that they both exit stage left at the same time. As for Tony Romo, the Cowboys have three consecutive road games, so he's going to learn fairly quickly that life as the QB of "America's Team" is not always going to be a bed of roses. I hope he enjoyed that ovation that he got when he came into Monday nights game after halftime. It may be a while before he's greeted that warmly again.

So It Begins

The 2006-07 NFL season kicked off last night with the defending Super Bowl champs playing host to the new look Miami Dolphins. Even if you're like me ,and don't like the fact that the season starts on a day that isn't Sunday, you have to admit that action was much better than expected with doubts lingering about Charlie Batch's arm and Daunte's knee although the game itself could have been diagnosed with bipolar disorder. The first quarter featured a dogfight between two defensively minded teams with conservative play calling. Then the teams exploded for 24 pts in the second quarter with Pittsburgh taking a 14-10 halftime lead. The rest of the story was very familiar to Minnesota fans and it's one the Dolfans should be expecting to see over the course of the season. Daunte's knee looked good, but when the pressure was on he threw two big interceptions on back to back possessions.

Two big games to watch out for in Week 1 are the Manning Bowl and the Carolina/Atlanta game. Carolina has owned Michael Vick throughout his career, but Carolina has lost the last three season openers at home. Something's gotta give.

Season Predictions:

AFC East: NE will win this weak division
AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: San Diego - lost a lot of close games and Rivers is ready to play.
AFC Wild Cards: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville

NFC East: NYG
NFC North: Chicago b/c no else is good enough
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: Seattle
NFC Wild Cards: Dallas, Atlanta

AFC Championship: Indi over Cinci
NFC Championship: Carolina over NYG
Super Bowl: Carolina over Indi

Season suprises:

• Jets will win 7-8 games
• Washington will win 6 games or less
• Favre will be benched by week 10
• Duece will finish the season with more yards rushing than Bush
• Matt Leinart will be given the keys to the AZ offense, but will crash
• TO will make it through the whole season w/o a major problem
• Vick will be benched for Schaub, but will stay in the game at another position

Check out this great pool site to see how my season goes against the spread.

http://www.angelfire.com/ny5/footballpool/index.htm

There Ain't No We Either

Terrell Owens is looking for a team. Or rather looking for a place to show off his considerable skills and incite dissent. It's amazing how much people are willing to over look when you can produce 15 touchdowns a year. Terrell has a special place in his heart for quarterbacks. He questioned the sexual orientation of Jeff Garcia. He questioned Donovan McNabb's heart, conditioning, leadership abilities and probably his ethnicity for good measure. Why would any team want to take on the cancer that is Terrell Owens? The simple answer is that he's one of the best at what he does. He can catch the ball, he can run with the ball, he can make people miss, he can make plays. He's a consummate fantasy player. He puts up big stats for you week in and week out. Unfortunately if he's on your team, you have to deal with him for the other six days of the week.

He managed to get himself suspended last year for his inability to keep his mouth shut and for fighting with a teammate. His goal isn't to win a Superbowl. His goal is to promote himself. His problems last year would have been minor if he could have just kept his seemingly perpetually open and babbling mouth shut, but once a microphone is pointed in his direction, for some reason he feels he has to say something that's going to make sportscenter. Once a week isn't good enough for T.O., he needs to be on every night. And if saying something stupid about the quarterback is going to do that, well then that's what he's going to do. He is also never happy with his contract. His satisfaction with his new contract with Philly lasted exactly one year. He started complaining the minute the Superbowl was over.

The city of brotherly love was simply not loving or big enough for T.O. He needs a much grander stage for his one-man show. There is only one place where his star could reach the heights that he aspires to. He needs America's Team. And America's Team is apparently willing to indulge him. The Dallas Cowboys are now hot on the trail of Terrell Owens. I think it would be fitting if he went back to the stadium where he is literally one of the most hated visiting players in the league. He embarrassed the Cowboys by posing on the star at midfield after scoring a touchdown. The fans have never forgiven him. However, Jerry Jones apparently doesn't hold a grudge. He's willing to bet that Bill Parcells can keep Owens in line. He figures that if Parcells could do it with Keyshawn, he can do it with Owens. It's clearly a sucker bet, but Jones is going to do everything in his power to make it happen.

The T.O. show will roll on. It will be coming to a town near you come next fall. Just pray that he's not playing for your team. Unless it's your fantasy team, of course.