Last Line of Defense

This is the last time I write something defending Arod (I think), but Murray Chass of the NY Times couldn't help but get a parting shot at him. He wrote,

"If there is a team considering pursuing Rodriguez, it should remember that he has never played in a World Series, and he was a major reason his team didn’t get there the past three seasons."

Arod played an essential role in getting the Yankees to post season in the last three years. Remember that we are talking about, not one, but two MVP seasons in the last three years. If you don't get to the playoffs, you don't even get a chance to compete for the World Series. He certainly should shoulder some of the blame for the Yankees not advancing beyond that ALDS for the last three years, but without him there's a good chance that at least one, if not two of those three playoff appearances don't even happen. I think Chein Ming Wang giving up 12 runs in 5 innings had something to do with the Yankees losing to the Indians in their most recent trip to the playoffs. Arod played here for four years and the Yankees didn't win the World Series which is too bad for Yankee fans, but he is not the only or major reason for that.

I'm A Travelling Man

Scott Boras announced to the world last night that Arod will indeed be opting out of his contract with the Yankees. The Yankees, who were preparing a mega deal for Arod, were not even given the chance to present an offer to him. The fact that Boras chose to make the announcement on the same night that the Red Sox won the series (thereby hogging the press coverage), is typical of the agent who doesn't care about the game, he only cares about the money. And in the end, I guess that's what an agent is supposed to care about. The press is vilifying Boras and Arod for the timing of the announcement, but Boras knew that doing it last night would get maximum press coverage. Peter Gammons was doing actually doing commentary about Arod decision on the field, while the Red Sox celebrated in the background.

As I said in one of my previous emails regarding Arod, this decision wouldn't be made based on money. He may get more money from another team, but the difference really isn't going to be that substantial. His decision isn't based on the "uncertainty surrounding the team" as Boras put it. Or because he didn't know who the next manager would be, or because he thought the Yankees wouldn't put a quality product on the field next year. He just didn't want to play for the Yankees anymore. Plain and simple. It could have been because of his up and down relationship with the fans, the pressure that he felt to produce, the non stop coverage by the press, his frosty relationship with Derek Jeter, or the expectations that were placed upon him, but whatever the ultimate reason, it all adds up to the same thing.

Arod will pack his bags once again and hit the road and bring with him the promise of greatness. He will sit in another press conference and proclaim that this is his final destination, that he never wants to wear the uniform of another team and that he finally feels like he's home. He will say all the things that the press and fans in his next city will want to hear. The only issue I have with Arod is that I know the speech is already written. Perhaps Arod will end up in Chicago with Lou Pinella where he may be the answer to the long suffering Cubs. He may go the Angels, whose owner has long coveted Arod. He may even end up in Boston, who only have to carry Manny's $20 million contract for one more season. I really have no idea where he'll go, but someone is going to pay a lot of money for the right to watch Arod make an assault on the all time home run record.

I personally bear no ill will toward Arod. It's been a treat to watch one of the greatest players of all time on a day to day basis. He almost single-handedly kept the Yankees afloat for the first half of this season and his play down the stretch in '05 was the difference in the Yankees winning another divisional crown. I have spent a lot of time in this forum defending him from his numerous critics and I regret none of it. His four year stretch was the best individual performance that I've ever seen by a Yankee player (and I've been watching since the 70's). He showed up everyday and did his job well. That's about all you can ask from a player. I don't know what he was like on the bench or in the clubhouse, but when he had a bat in his hands, he was the best player in the game.

So as Arod leaves New York, I wish him good look in his search. I'm not sure what he's looking for, but apparently he didn't find it here. The fans in his new city are in for a treat. He is without a doubt, a once in a generation type of player. And maybe, if he's lucky, his next stop will provide him with something that money can't buy. It may provide him with a place he can call home and actually mean it.

Ride 'Em In

The World Series starts tonight, so I guess it's time for me to make a prediction. My success rate dropped to 50% in the last round. That's a 50% decrease from the first round. If my current pattern holds, then I should get this one wrong. We've got the miracle Rockies against the team with the best record in baseball. The Rockies shouldn't be here. They were dead in the water with 2-1/2 weeks to go in the season. There were a couple of times when the all times saves leader had a chance to end their season and he failed on both occasions. They have stormed through the playoffs and now stand on the verge of the accomplishing the greatest late season run in the history of baseball. All that stands in their way is the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox who were embraced as underdogs in '04 have now become part of the aristocratic class of baseball along with the Yankees. They are no longer lovable losers (I think the Cubs still hold that title), but a perennial powerhouse. To fans of the Rockies, I'm sure the Red Sox look like the evil empire. The Red Sox are the team with the payroll that dwarfs the competition. The Red Sox are the team that has had post season success. The Red Sox are the one's with the national fan base. For all intents and purposes, the Red Sox have become what they once detested and they are convinced that they have done right. The Rockies are the underdogs in the series. They are the little guys going up against the corporate giant. They are the real life Rudy.

On paper, this series looks like a mismatch. As we all know however, the games aren't played on paper. The Rockies are the hottest team on the planet. I thought that the long delay after the NLDS would effect them, I was wrong. So I don't think that the long delay will have any effect on them this time either. The Red Sox are coming off a huge comeback win against the Indians and are feeling pretty good about themselves as well. Both teams have had enough rest to set up their rotations for the Series. Josh Beckett is pitching about as well as any pitcher has in recent post season history. He will start game one and he is as close to a guaranteed win as exists. If he wins the first game, it will put the Rockies in unfamiliar territory. It's been weeks since they lost their last game. The question will be whether they can bounce back from that initial blow. I just don't think that they are going to be able to. I'm calling this one for the Red Sox in six games.

And there you have it. My pick to win it all is the Boston Red Sox. They will be the only team to win multiple titles in the new century and can now lay claim to being the new super power in baseball.

Ladies and Gentlemen...The New York Darkies

I'm not one for political correctness and this really isn't about that, but the logo of the Cleveland Indians has to go. How has this symbol not been replaced? How is this different from the stereotypical images perpetuated by performers who used to appear in blackface for a hundred years? The Indians say that their name was changed in 1915 to honor the first native American to play in the majors. I personally find that hard to believe, but if that's their story, I'll take them at face value. What I do have a problem with is their depiction of "Chief Wahoo" as a grinning red skinned indian. I don't care what their original intent was, that caricature should be offensive to almost anyone who views it.

The position of those who want to keep the logo as it is, reminds me of the postition taken by those who wanted to keep the confederate flag as part of the state flags of southern states. People argued that it was there to remind them of their southern heritage, rather than a reminder of slavery and oppression. The truth was that the "stars and bars" were added to most of the state flags as show of defiance when the civil rights laws were enacted in the sixties. The people who were defending the flag felt like they were under attack by outsiders, so they took a position that was basically indefensible because they didn't feel like they should be told what to do. The people who defend the Chief Wahoo logo probably feel the same way. They feel like they are under attack from the "political correctness police" and so they have become more entrenched in their position, regardless of how objectively indefensible it may be.

Using Chief Wahoo to honor the American Indian makes as much sense as the Yankees being renamed the "Darkies" and using a grinning blackface image to honor the contribution of African-Americans. Or how about the New York Paddys, with a caricature of a drunk irishman with a big red nose and a bottle of booze in his hands? Or how about the New York Mafia, with a picture of a Italian man with a machine gun in his hands as the logo?

Can I Have This Dance...

The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are about to begin their high stakes game of Chicken that will ultimately lead to Arod signing a mega deal with the team or taking his chances on the open market. His agent, Scott Boras, has been in spin mode since well before the Yankees season ended and he has now kicked the spin into high gear. He's been talking about the Arod's value to the Yankees and to their regional sports network YES, and claiming that Arod is the reason that the network's value has tripled since he's been on the team. He is also claiming the Yankees boost in attendance can be directly traced to Arod. I believe that he even floated a figure of $40 million a year as reasonable for his client. His latest release to the press stated that the loss of Joe Torre and the accompanying turmoil may play a factor in Arod's decision.

While all of Boras' arguments are fairly transparent, his claim that the loss of Joe Torre will have an effect of Arod's decision may be the most laughable. Just last year, Torre dropped Arod to 8th place in the playoffs against Detroit and refused to defend him in a Sports Illustrated article. To think that Arod would hinge his decision on whether to come to the Yankees based on Torre's presence is a joke. While I'm sure that Arod and Torre were able to coexist peacefully in the clubhouse, to call their relationship warm, would probably be stretching the truth. During all of Boras' pronouncements, we have yet to hear a peep out of Arod. I'm sure this is all part of the grand scheme orchestrated by Boras to keep the Yankees guessing as to his real intentions.

Boras has a history of pushing the clock on negotiations. Just last winter he kept the Red Sox guessing about whether Matsusaka would sign a contract. In fact, in the end, it was Matsusaka who made the deal happen. He wanted to play for the Red Sox and so he took the last deal that was offered. Arod is in much the same position. The Yankees have stated publicly on various occasions that they will not pursue Arod if he chooses to opt out of his contract. They have said that they are simply unwilling to leave the money that the Texas Rangers are obligated to pay Arod over the next three seasons on the table. The Yankees will almost certainly offer Arod a long term extension in the $30 million neighborhood. The question is whether Arod wants to play for the Yankees or whether he would prefer to play somewhere else. In the end, it won't be about the money, but about Arod's comfort level with the city.

He may indeed get slightly more money over the next three seasons if he opts out of the Yankee deal (which will pay him $25 million a season), but over the life of the contract, the money will be fairly close. We may be talking about the difference between $240 and $250 million. It's a difference to be sure, but how much will that really matter to someone in Arod's position? We are about to find out. A lot of people have labeled Arod as a player who is only chasing money, but the difference in what he was offered (during his last foray into the free agent market) by his old team (Seattle) and the team he ended up on (Texas) was staggering ($90 million Vs. $250 million). He really had no choice but to take the offer from Texas. His stated reasons for moving were not believable (they were building a winning franchise, great atmosphere, etc.). He simply should have said what everyone knew, he went there for the money. I mean who could really blame him? He was singled out as the example of the greedy ballplayer anyway, so being honest couldn't have really hurt him much.

His situation with the Yankees is going to be much different. Arod knows that the Yankees are a franchise that is committed to winning and one that will spend money in order to guarantee a competitive product on the field every year. To walk away from the Yankees when they will make a great financial offer and practically guarantee a shot at the playoffs every season, would be an absolute repudiation of the team and the city. Perhaps he really hated his time here. The Yankee fans were certainly unkind at times and the papers here have followed his personal life with the reckless abandon. I certainly wouldn't hold it against him if he decided that he'd rather pursue his baseball life in another city as long as he was honest about the reasons for leaving.

I've always thought that the biggest problem with Arod connecting with the fans is that almost everything that comes out his mouth seems to be planned. He never really seems to speak from his heart. New Yorkers especially love an athlete who wears his heart on his sleeve. Arod is the definition of "maintaining an even strain". The Yankee fans were much kinder to Arod this year because of the phenomenal numbers that he produced, but I don't think that they really identify with Arod or truly embrace him. The contract is one of the reasons, but the other is that people perceive him as a player who keeps his distance from the fans. Arod is just a private person. It's the same kind of quality that Joe DiMaggio had, but in those days, baseball fans weren't privy to comings and goings of their stars. The majority of fans had no idea what a prickly and private person DiMaggio was. The press perpetuated his image by talking about how classy DiMaggio was. His teammates may have had a different opinion of him, but that was never conveyed to the public. There was no SI article talking about his relationship with his teammates. They looked at the numbers he produced and his on field demeanor and turned him into an icon. If Arod had been a star during those days, he may be viewed differently by the public, but given today's access and never ending stream of press, Arod is not viewed in that light.

I really have no idea what Arod's decision is going to be, but Yankees have about 3 weeks left to negotiate exclusively with him. I can assure you that in that time we are going to get a lot more from Scott Boras and probably very little from the only person who already knows whether the Arod show will continue on Broadway or whether it will be hitting the road again.

The Time of Your Life

The Yankees made an offer to Joe Torre yesterday that they knew he would have to refuse. They offered him a base salary that was 30% below what he made this year. A year in which he led the Yankees from 14-1/2 games out of first to within sniffing distance of the division title and to their 13th straight playoff appearance. The Yankees offered him performance bonuses and a vesting option for one more year if he made the World Series. Joe turned them down. He left a potential $16 million on the table because he didn't think that after all he had done for the Yankees that he deserved to be treated like a salesman working for a bonus. Joe managed to leave the Yankees with the same dignity and grace that he has displayed over his past 12 years at the helm of the world's most famous team.

The Yankees probably felt they had no choice but to offer a contract to Torre. Before Torre arrived the Yankees had been to the post season just once in 14 years. The tradition of winning championships was a distant memory. When he took the reigns of the team, there were 21 year old Yankee fans who would have had no memory of the team ever winning a World Series. Joe changed all that. His teams won an amazing four titles in five years. Now there are 18 year old fans who believe that the Yankees being in the playoffs is their birthright. Ultimately Joe Torre became a victim of his own success. He had been unable to get the Yankees out of the first round of the three years in a row and ownership finally decided that it was time to make a change. Regardless of George Stienbrenner's proclamation that Joe wouldn't be back if the Yankees didn't beat the Indians, it would have been almost inconceivable for the Yankees not to make an offer to the most successful manager of modern times. They knew that the offer would have to be substantial and they knew that it would have to molded in such a way that Torre would have no choice but to turn it down.

Offering an incentive based contract is a first in baseball as far as I know. I don't remember another manager being offered incentives based on how far a team gets in the playoffs. Players often have incentive clauses in their contracts for winning awards and of course there are tens of thousands of dollars in playoff bonuses if their teams advance. But managers usually don't have that kind of contract. They may have a bonus clause if they win manager of the year, but I don't know if they have bonus clauses (especially for $3 million) for winning in the playoffs. Anyway, the base salary was always going to be a sticking point and the Yankees knew this. They knew that Joe Torre could never accept a pay cut. They knew that he would have no choice but to turn down the offer and head back home. They also knew that they could then tell Yankee fans that they had tried to resign Joe. They had made a good faith effort, they had even offered him more money than he made this year. They had done everything possible to try and retain Joe, but in the end he had decided to move on.

I know that some fans will buy the explanation. After all how can someone who is struggling every day to feed their family feel bad about a man who turns down a guaranteed contract of $5 million? But I have a feeling that many of those working class people will feel bad for Joe. Joe's a New Yorker, he speaks the same language that many of the fans do. He grew up going to Yankee stadium. He was actually at the perfect game that Don Larsen threw in the '56 World Series. The Yankees haven't won the Series for seven years, and while the fans will bitch and moan about that, they will not forget the magical ride that the '96-'00 team took this city on. And Joe Torre was at the helm of that team.

It is now officially the end of the Joe Torre era and the beginning of the Don Mattingly? era. It doesn't really matter who takes over the managerial seat for the Yankees. I can guarantee you that the Yankees won't have another era like this one. The Yankees were the only playoff team to repeat an appearance from last year. With revenue sharing and TV money the era of parity has reached the major leagues. The Yankees still have the highest payroll and enough talent to compete for the playoffs for the conceivable future, but they will not be making the playoffs for the next 12 years in a row. A year will come when the Yankees get off to a slow start and they don't stage a huge turnaround in the second half. A year will come when age, injury or just simple bad luck will catch up with them. I don't know who the manager will be then, but all the papers in town will wax poetic about the glory days when the Yankees made the playoffs every year. They'll long for those days and they'll long for Joe Torre. And so will the Yankees.

The Morning After

Now that the baseball off-season is upon us (at least upon those of us that are Yankee fans), the task of assessing the past season and deciding what 2008 has in store is at hand. I've already written about what I thought of the season and the team, but there are a lot of choices to made for the Yankees going forward. Let's look at the team position by position:

Catcher:

Jorge Posada had a career year at the age of 36, it didn't hurt that it came during a contract year. Jose Molina provided the Yankees with the first solid back up work since Posada's early years. The Yankees have no choice but to resign Posada. They don't have a big league ready catcher in the minors and there are no attractive free agent choices. Posada has said that he would test the free agent waters, but he really has no desire to leave the Bronx and the Yankees have no desire to see him leave. Catchers usually stop being productive in their mid thirties, but the Yankees have no choice but to sign Posada to a three year contract in the $40 million dollar range. Molina probably wants to be an everyday catcher somewhere, so I don't think the Yankees are going to be able to keep him happy. It looks like they will once again be searching for a competent back up to Posada.

First Base:

Doug Menkekeldlwyzt provided a solid glove and better bat than anticipated at first (although I still think he's best suited as a defensive replacement). Giambi suffered through an injury plagued year and thankfully for the Yankees, 2008 is the last year of his monstrous contract. Also Andy Phillips and Wilson Betament played some first base during the year. The first base situation is really dependent on the Arod situation at third. First is traditionally a power position, but Doug Mendkzekewltz doesn't provide much power. Giambi , when healthy, can provide power, but his defense is more than a little suspect. If Arod is on the team, the Yankees can afford to give up some power at the position, if he's not, then they really need someone to pick up the offensive slack. I know Giambi is going to be on the team in '08, I'm just not sure who else will be joining him.

Second Base:

Robinson Cano overcame a horrible start to hit over .300 again and drive in almost 100 runs. His defense is at times spectacular and at times it looks like he's not really paying attention. Overall though, I think he's one of the better second basemen in the league and he provides the Yankees with a young position player who can anchor the lineup for years to come. He's a number three hitter in the making.

Shortstop:

Derek Jeter was slowed by injuries this year and his usual stellar base running suffered. His range on defense, which has never been great, was even worse this year. His numbers were down from his "should have been MVP" year, but he still scored 100 runs and hit .320. I expect him to bounce back some next year and at least improve his stolen base percentage.

Third Base:

Probably the biggest question mark the Yankees have this offeseason besides Joe Torre is Arod. He can opt out of his contract 10 days after the end of the World Series and his agent Scott Boras and the Yankees will be playing a high stakes game of poker until then. Boras has already floated stories in the press about possible ownership being offered and the staggering figure of $400 million as a possibility. This is really going to come down to whether Arod wants to stay in NY or go somewhere else. I'm sure the Yankees will make him a very lucrative offer (in the $225-$250 million range), so money isn't going to be the issue. Arod has to decide whether he wants to establish his legacy here or not. I still don't know the answer to that one. If were betting on this, I'd say that he signs with the Yankees at 11:59 PM, one minute before the opt out date.

Right Field:

Bobby Abreu, like Cano overcame a horrendous start to post very good numbers. He never got his average above .300, but he did drive in and score over 100 runs. The Yankees have a $16 million option for next year and so they can decide his fate. If the Yankees were to go out and get a center fielder, say Aaron Rowand, I believe that they would let Abreu walk. If they can get Rowland for about $10 million a year, then they could move Melky to RF, improve their defense and save some money. Abreu is a former Gold Glove winner, but in NY he has always seemed to shy away from the walls. He has a good arm, but his range is very limited. In my opinion, the Yankees would be better off getting a cheaper CF and letting Bobby go.

Center Field:

Melky Cabrera established himself as the Yankees CF'er early in season. He also got off to a very slow start, but was a big part of the Yankee resurgence in the second half. He's got a great arm and good range. He's not the most natural CF'er in the game, but he did lead all CF'ers in the majors in outfield assists. I think the team would be best served by moving him to Right Field. He certainly has a RF'ers arm and if he could begin to develop more power, I think he could be fixture out there for many years.

Left Field:

Matsui had a very streaky year at the plate, but did end up with numbers that were fairly representative of his career (25HRs, 100 runs, 100 rbi's). The Yankees began using Johnny Damon in LF on a daily basis as the year wore on and unless they are able to trade Damon, I believe that Matsui will become for the most part, a full time DH. That would mean that Giambi would have to play first to get into the lineup. Perhaps Matsui, Damon and Giambi will become something of a rotating threesome between the three positions. For 2008, I suspect that Damon will get the majority of the time in the LF.

Starting Rotation:

The Yankees have Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlin and Igawa under contract for next year. I'm pretty sure that Clemens won't be back, but I'm thinking that Pettite will exercise his $16 million option and return. That leaves someone out of the mix in the rotation. I happen to think that Kei Igawa can be an effective starter in the majors. He clearly has the ability to strike hitters out (7.1K per 9), but he had control issues. If they can be fixed then I think he might turn out to be a serviceable starting pitcher. It would be a mistake to give up on him, because the Yankees will be relying on three very young pitchers to take the ball every fifth day. While each has shown this year that they can get hitters out, it would be wise to have other options in case they fail to reproduce the work they did in '07. I'm actually pretty excited to see what the Yankees can do with a rotation that would be 80% home grown.

Bullpen:

Rivera was his usual self after a shaky April. He's still one of the best closers in baseball, even if he's not as automatic as he used to be. I don't think the Yankees have a better option. He's been making some noise in the press about maybe not coming back if the Yankees chose not to bring Joe Torre back, but I don't think that's the case. It would take a mind boggling offer from another team to pry him away from the only team he's ever pitched for. The Yankees bullpen problems are with their set up men. Vizciano did a good job, but then got tired in September. Kyle Farnsworth went through a stretch were he seemed to give up at least a run in every appearance. Chamberlin was spectacular, but he'll be on the starting staff. The Yankees really need to look to the free agents to try and fill what appears to be to me, their biggest weakness.

So that's it for the position by position breakdown. I don't see a whole lot of change, except in the outfield. Every year I make suggestions to Brian Cashman about what to do with the team and every year he ignores me. This year will be no different.

Clarity Comes With The Day After, If You Put The Bottle Down.

alcohol is a funny thing. it makes the weak, strong. it makes the meek, proud—sometimes, even boastful. and on occasion, it makes an ordinary man squeeze his nether regions between his legs and don his ex-girlfriend’s thong only to do a rendition of the macarena at 2:45 in morning in front of a full-length mirror, alone.

but enough about me. this is the NFL. this is football. this is my
“its-not-you-it’s-me” session. this is where i come clean, and apologize to all the loyal readers of this blog for leading them astray. so here i go.

if you read no further, i went 6-5. which makes me a winner, despite what my parents have told me for the last 32 years. on with the results.

Minnesota at Chicago (1-0)
“adrian peterson has a career game”. i guess that might have been the understatement of the blog. 224 yrds rushing and 3 TDs eclipsed a 31 year-old rushing record for the vikings. i said take the vikings. the line said take the bears. looks like the football gods smiled upon me.

Miami at Cleveland
 (1-1)
when you’re drinking, sometimes you get up from the table in the middle of a conversation to go to the restroom and come back, only to find out that the conversation has moved on. unfortunately, the whole time you’ve been in the restroom, you’ve been developing an amazing argument. you get back to table, spout off your thesis statement and realize that you’ve missed the train, entirely.

this happened during my cleveland/miami pick. i said greise would have a horrible game. greise wasn’t even in this game. i take full responsibility for this. if you put money on this game because of greise, please contact me. i want to make fun of you in public to divert any attention focused on me.

Washington at Green Bay (no pick, 1-1)
had i (or you) gone with my initial logic, 
this was a solid pick.

Cincinnati at Kansas City
 (no pick, 1-1)
i still firmly believe that they are both losers.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay
 (1-2)
i said superman would “will” them to victory. superman goes out with an injury mid-way thru the 3rd quarter. TB scores 10 pts thereafter, and wins by 3. bummer.

St. Louis at Baltimore
(2-2)
this wasn’t really a fair pick. but i got it none-the-less.

Houston at Jacksonville
(3-2)
the win was right, the points were sooo far wrong, i don’t even want to talk about it. but a win is a win.

Philadelphia at NY jets
 (4-2)
what can i say. J-E-T-S-will-let-u-down, down, down! btw: did anyone else watch sportscenter this weekend when they had kermit the frog doing an interview with jets & eagles fans? was it me, or did kermit sound really weird? they should bring the old guy back that used to do his voice. the new guy is waaay off.

Carolina at Arizona
 (4-3)
i put my faith in warner. he goes out early. and who could’ve predicted testeverde? that’s almost a better story than warner. due to a lack of info, i personally deem this a tie. but money laid is money played. so there you go. honesty. i hope you’re satisfied.

Oakland at San Diego
 (4-4)
“LT fails to live up to the hype once again.” like communism, the designated hitter, and neapolitan ice cream, it made sense in theory, not so much in practice. so who knew? apparently, 98% of fantasy football owners did. count this one a loss.

New England at Dallas (5-4)
“brady is a better field general than romo. moss and owens cancel each other out. folk has a career game.” two out of three ain’t bad. and, apparently, brady is a much better field general than romo—any day of the week and twice on sundays—for now, anyway.

New Orleans at Seattle
 (5-5)
i was wrong. i apologize. i just want to say that in both my fantasy leagues, brees was benched this week. nuff said. i’m done with this.

NY Giants at Atlanta
(6-5)
this was a given…the jet’s lost. but i didn’t expect eli to have 300+ yards. anyway, my pick was right.

well, there you have it. my picks from bosox country. i must say, as i look up from my keyboard, it’s refreshing to see half the bar leave with their rally caps on as cleveland spanked boston 4-2. now if only colorado could win another one. i’d love to talk more about this, but i think i hear the macarena playing…

NFL picks from the bottom of a glass: lost somewhere in america.

there’s a place in America where a kid doesn’t discuss batting averages with his boys as he waits in line to walk through the metal detectors at school. a place where the same kid doesn’t worry about what color hat he has on, and whether he needs to change it before heading to the park in someone else’s turf. yes, somewhere, far, far away from hustle and bustle of midtown traffic a child is playing catch with his father in the backyard, and only thinking one thing:

i hope dad drops one before i do.

the grass is just as green here as it is in Yankee stadium. only the kid doesn’t appreciate it. because grass is supposed to be green where this kid lives, there’s plenty of it, and he’s well aware of it because his one job on Saturday is to mow it.

(cue soft, whiny violin music)

i don’t expect you to understand it. many of you haven’t stepped foot out of Manhattan since Clinton was running things, Cecil Fielder was on first base, and gray’s papaya only charged $1.50 for two dogs and a drink (the recession special was awesome).

sure, you went home for a holiday or two. you spent the time explaining to your aunt Edna that six friends with part-time jobs could never afford a place that big near central park—even if it was rent controlled. and if you’re traveled, you might have even visited someplace you described around the water-cooler as “quaint”. but chances are, you haven’t lived middle America in quite some time.

this is middle America. beaming with values. chock-full of morals. completely devoid of dirt, grit, and struggling passion. i’ve found myself in the middle of it for 345 days, 3 hours, and 17 minutes. and from what i can tell, everywhere but NY is bosox country.

i could continue but since the season is over, here are my NFL picks:

Minnesota at Chicago
this will come down to how well the viking running backs can fare against the bears d-line. duh. vikings come out big. Adrian Peterson has a career game.
the line says bears. smart money is on the vikings (and by smart, i mean slightly inebriated and highly-delusional). but look forward to Robbie Gould having two 50+ yard field goals and possibly a blocked xpa.

Miami at Cleveland
Cleveland is favored. unfortunately, griese has been sucking down cosmo’s since the final game of the ALDS. and we all know what a few days of cosmo-drinking can do to your judgement. one time, i passed out on the f train and woke up in Weehawken. try explaining that one. anyhow, take Miami. they have prettier colors.

Washington at green bay
green bay is 4-1 (they won 80% of their games). the redskins are 3-1 (and only won 75% of their games). i’m no statistician, but 80 is bigger than 75. logic says go with green bay. unfortunately, Favre's cataracts are going to act up and most of his passes are going to be short. i’d put half my money on green bay, half my money on Washington, and just pray for a tie.

Cincinnati at Kansas city
no one wins because they are both losers--regardless of the line.

Tennessee at Tampa bay
whenever you hear the words, “Vince young,” do you also hear Eddie Murphy impersonating a middle-aged, obese woman chanting, “he’s the man, he’s the man, he’s the man?” i guess i’m the only one. despite the odds, take Tennessee. superman will “will” them to victory.

st. Louis at Baltimore
this match up was something i was looking forward to when they released the schedules last year. now, not so much. take Baltimore. take the points. take the game off and spend some time with a loved one. or call your grandma. she hasn’t heard from you for a long time anyway.

Houston at Jacksonville
kubiac is the greatest coach ever. period. elway is proof of that (he won superbowls when kubiac was sending in signals). end of story. unless Houston is on the road, playing a team with only three syllables. jack-son-ville is favored in this one. Jacksonville wins, but only by a field goal. dayne has 100 yards. and some loser proposes to his wife during half-time. unfortunately, she’s stuck in line trying to buy him a chili-dog. “the thought matters” principle is tested and finally breaks, forever ending quips from chip in the mail room. so we got that going for us, which is nice.

Philadelphia at NY jets
when in doubt, take the home team, unless they are playing in another team’s home stadium. yeah, the jet’s are screwed. but look at it this way, 36% of new yorkers won’t be complaining about the Yankees.

Carolina at Arizona
arizona is favored here. if it weren’t for the fact that i really have to go to the bathroom, i’d try to find out why. regardless, kurt warner is starting. this is a guy who bagged groceries to make ends meet for his wife and seven children while he waited for his one shot in the nfl, only to get it, get named nfl mvp twice, and then sent to bench. how can this go wrong for arizona? take them.

Oakland at San Diego
san diego is favored large. but this is the afc west (which used to stand for something). i’m going out on a limb here taking the raiders. btw: LT fails to live up to the hype once again. sit him in your fantasy leagues.

New England at Dallas
Jesus, how many games are there? i’ve been writing for like an hour now. damn. brady is a better field general than romo. moss and owens cancel each other out. folk has a career game. and that’s the problem. the cowboys don’t find the end zone. pats by 7 plus.

New Orleans at Seattle
remember that girl you met at summer camp back in 6th grade? the two of you wrote each other constantly through the ensuing school year? compliments turned into flirtation? pictures were exchanged. yet, you couldn't explain to your buddies why she was always wearing the same outfit? then, summer camp came around again, and you got the courage to sneak out of the cabin, steal a canoe, and head over to the other side of the lake to see her? remember how disappointed you where when you found out she was a boy? yeah, same thing. this match-up had a amazing promise, long, long, ago.

take Seattle, if only because they are home.

NY Giants at Atlanta
i’ve already told you that jets will lose. which means that some NY sports team has to win. the Yankees are done playing for the year. by default, the giants win. Tiki barber steals the show with two off-color comments about the coaching staff.

well, there you have it.

The Show Must Go On

The Yankees are no longer part of the postseason but there are still four teams with a chance to win the big prize. I managed to predict the winners of all the first round series', so flush with success I'm now going to plow ahead to the League Championships. The Rockies and Diamondbacks series starts on Thursday. The Rockies are the hottest team in baseball having won 17 of their last 18 games. The problem that the Rockies have is that the layoff between games is probably going to effect them the most. When a team is hot, the last thing they want is time off. Unfortunately, the Rockies have had a week off. The Diamondbacks are dealing with the same layoff as the Rockies, but my feeling is that it won't affect them as much. The Rockies depend on their offense to lead the way and a hitters timing can suffer greatly by not seeing live pitching for a week. While the Rockies were on a roll last week, I'm not sure if they will be able to rekindle their momentum given the long rest between games. I'm thinking that the difference in this series is going to be pitching and defense. The Diamondbacks have the best pitcher left in NL playoffs in Brandon Webb and their defense has been great all year. I'm picking the Diamondbacks in 5 with Webb winning games 1 and 5.

The Red Sox and the Indians are a little trickier. The Red Sox have playoff proven pitchers in Beckett and Schilling, but the Indians have the two best pitchers in the AL in the second half in Sabthia and Carmona. All four have had stellar starts in the playoffs so far with Beckett and Carmona putting forth dominating efforts. The question is whether Schilling, who has been inconsistent this year, can put together two great starts in this series. The Red Sox offense, with a now healthy Manny, has a potent middle of the lineup. Ortiz, Ramirez and Lowell are the most dangerous threesome left in the playoffs. This series is really going to come down to whether the Indians two great starters can handle the Red Sox three best hitters. The Red Sox also have a huge advantage at the end of the game with Papelbon. So, how does this one turn out? As I started writing this, I was leaning toward the Red Sox. In the middle of writing it, I was leaning toward the Indians. However, I'm going to have to call this one for the Red Sox in six. At the end of the day, I just think that the Red Sox pitching at the end of the game will make the difference. Thinking about Joe Borowski facing Ortiz and Manny at the end of a game should fill every Tribe fan with dread.

That's it on the playoffs for now. I'll be back to pick a winner when the World Series rolls around.

Blinded by the Light

During last night's game, the TBS broadcasting crew of Skip Carey, Tony Gwynn and Bob Brenly showed the most amazing lack of preparation that I've seen this side of Tim McCarver. They kept on talking about the speed of Chein Ming Wang's sinker. They all commented that he was throwing it in the mid ninties and that he needed to slow it down in order to get better sinking action on the ball. However, if they had ever seen Wang pitch before (and they did in game 1 of the series), they should have been aware of the fact that he is the hardest thrower on the Yankees starting staff. He consistently throws his sinker in the mid nineties and has for the past three years. Somehow that fact escaped them all. He actually threw a good one at 94 mph and they commented that he was finally slowing his pitches down and getting some sink on the ball. Carmona, the Indians starter also throws a power sinker and I don't remember them complaining that he was throwing too hard as his pitches reached the mid-nineties on Friday night. Seriously guys, it's the playoffs. It would be nice if you knew something about the players you're covering.

All Good Things...

The Yankees 2007 season came to an end last night and with it, probably the Joe Torre era as well. They were done in by the timely hitting of the Indians who hit a remarkable .500 with 2 outs and men in scoring position. They scored the majority of their runs when the Yankee pitchers were pitch away from ending an inning. In the end, the Yankees vaunted lineup failed to produce in the clutch and their pitching was unable to hold the Indians in check. Outside of a three run home run by Johnny Damon and an error by Trot Nixon that allowed three runs to score, the Yankees offense failed to show up for the second year in a row. George Steinbrenner had already said that Joe's job was on the line if the Yankees failed to win this series, so there doesn't seem to be much hope that Torre will be given a new contract.

So how should we remember this season (I'll get to Torre a little bit later)? Should we remember how it ended (with a whimper rather than a bang)? Should we remember how impotent the highest scoring offense in the majors looked? Should we remember the Yankees best starter producing two forgettable starts? Should we remember Jeter, Arod, Matsui and Abreu failing in one clutch situation after another? You could chose to recollect those things when you think about this season, but I'd rather thing about the drama and the glory of the six months that precededed the ALDS. I'll remember the Yankees fighting back from a deficit of 14-1/2 games. I'll remember every major sports writer saying that this was the season that the Yankees finally fell apart. I'll remember a season for the ages put together by Alex Rodriquez. I'll remember Joba Chamberlin, Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy proving that the Yankees future is very bright indeed. I'll remember Jorge Posada who, despite catching over 130 games for what seemed like the 20th year in a row, had the best season of his career. I'll remember Andy Pettite coming back to Bronx after a three year sabbatical in Houston showcasing his usual second half brilliance. I'll remember Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera bringing their youthful exuberance and helping the Yankees remember that baseball is indeed just a game. I'll remember Mo Rivera overcoming a rough start and showing everybody that he is the greatest closer baseball has ever seen. I'll remember the seemingly unflappable Chien Ming Wang going out the mound and inducing grounder after grounder for his infield to handle. I'll remember a team at 21-29 and dead in the water suddenly remembering that they were the NEW YORK YANKEES and reminding all of baseball that they were a force to be reckoned with. To quote the Chairman of the Board,

"From the brim to the dregs, it poured sweet and clear, it was a very good year."

But the thing that I'll remember most of all is Joe Torre breaking down in the clubhouse after the Yankees clinched the wild card. One the reporters asked him about his team and Joe just couldn't hold back his emotions. That's what the Yankees will lose when Joe Torre leaves. They'll lose their heart. They'll lose the man who has kept them on the right path in good times and bad. Joe never wore his emotions on his sleeve during games or in the clubhouse. He was the one person who kept his head while all those around him were losing theirs. Joe came to town as a manager who hadn't won anything (well, he did lead Atlanta to a division title once) and leaves as a hall of famer having led the Yankees to 12 straight post season appearances, 6 AL championships and 4 World Series titles. In this age of parity in baseball (the Yankees were the only repeat team from last years playoffs), we may just have witnessed the last dynasty in baseball and Joe Torre was at the helm.

I know people will talk about the Yankees payroll and how they bought those victories, but for those who would say that, I would direct your attention across town to the team with the highest payroll in the National League. Did having more money than anyone else help the Mets avoid a late season collapse? Money doesn't guarantee anything and it certainly doesn't guarantee a trip to the playoffs every year. Joe brought stability and class to an organization that was lacking those things before his arrival. He never engaged in a shouting match in the press with his boss or one of his players, even when unkind things were said about him. He never threw fits on the field when a call went against him. He never raised his voice in a post game press conference, regardless of the ridiculous questions that were directed at him. Through good times and bad, he was (at least publicly) the same Joe. There are those that would say that the a more emotive manager would have been able to get the Yankees to play better. I have to respectfully disagree. The Yankees players could not have responded to any better to another manager than they have to Joe. They all universally speak of him with such respect and genuine affection that I can't imagine that they would performed any better than they have. Joe was simply the right man at the right time for the right team.

And now it's all over (presumably). I have a hard time believing that Joe would want to manage again (although the St. Louis Cardinals need a manager and Joe did have his best seasons as a player there (hmmm)). I think that the Cardinals may be the only team that could tempt Joe back into the managers seat. St. Louis is considered the best baseball city in the country and the pressure certainly would be a lot less than it was here in NY. I prefer to think that Joe won't take another job. That he'll always be remembered as the manager of the last dynasty in baseball and that he'll always be remembered as a NEW YORK YANKEE. There's a spot in monument park waiting for him and of course his number (6) will be retired on Joe Torre day and there's not a lot more that a baseball man can ask for. I just wish that Joe would have been able to go out on his own terms. I wished for the Yankees to win this year, not so much for me, but for Joe. I don't know if he would have quit if they had won it all, but that was my hope. This isn't quite the glorious ending I foresaw, but it doesn't change the picture of Joe Torre that I'll always carry in my mind, which is the players carrying him off the field as his eyes fill with tears.

Thanks, Joe. For everything.

Smells Like Roses

Filip Bondy of the NY Daily News had this to say today about the Yankees:

"Forget Nervous Guy at third base, scheduled to turn into a pumpkin tonight against C.C. Sabathia and the Indians. Wrap your hopes again inside the golden aura of Hero Man at shortstop, the trusty security blanket."

I know it's practically blasphemy around baseball to say anything negative about Derek Jeter, but why does praising Jeter have to come at the expense of Arod. All Arod did was put a season that hasn't been seen in baseball since the days of Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx. He practically single-handedly carried the Yankees during the first months of the season when half of the lineup was in a prolonged slump. Without him, the sainted Jeter doesn't even get to the postseason this year and yet the writers in this town can't help but take another shot at Arod. By the way, where was Jeter in the 2001 World Series when he hit .148 as the Yankees lost in seven games. How about the loss to the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS (which is constantly blamed on Arod) when he hit a robust .200 as the Yankees lost four games in a row. Jeter has produced lots of big hits for the Yankees over the years, but he's not infallible. If the Yankees fail this year, you can bet the writers will blame it on Arod no matter what Jeter does. If Jeter has a terrible series, all the articles will still be about Arod's inability to lead the Yankees to victory. It must be nice to be a saint. By the way, Filip Bondy couldn't be reached for a comment. He was too busy worshiping the ground that Jeter walked on.

Spitting Allowed

Mike Lupica wrote another article about Arod and his lack of postseason success today. He had this to say:

"Did nothing against the Angels in the division series of 2005 and nothing against the Tigers in the division series of 2006. Is everything his fault? Not on your life. No one has ever suggested that it is. "

No has ever suggested that the Yankees not winning was all Arods fault???? Really? What planet has he been living on?Lupica himself has written at least a dozen articles where he blamed Arod for the Yankees lack of recent postseason success. Apparently he includes himself in his general contempt for the world and doesn't read his own material. It would quite something if the Yankees were to win the World Series this year. Lupica would write about how wonderful Joe Torre is (after calling for his job for the past two seasons) and how wonderful Arod is (after calling him a choker on many occasions) and how perfect this Yankee team is and how it reminds him of the the team in the 90's (after repeatedly saying how different this team is from those teams) and how all is right with the world with the Yankees on top of baseball again (after proclaiming the Mets the new kings of New York for the last couple of years). Lupica is like a weatherman; his predictions are often wrong but there never seem to be any repercussions. Nice work if you can get it.

Lightning Round

The tournament known as the baseball playoffs begin tonight. The miracle series (Phillies vs. Rockies) in the NL and the Red Sox vs. the Angels in the AL. I guess it's time for me to make my predictions. First I'll give you a wrap up of my preseason picks for the playoffs. In the AL I was 100% accurate. Thank you, thank you very much. As far as the NL goes, I was slightly less accurate. The Phillies winning the east was all I got right and that took a collapse of historical proportion by the Mets. Oh well, five out of eight isn't too bad, but I do expect more from myself. I was incredibly wrong on the Dodgers, who played the last two months of the season like a minor league team. The Brewers made me look bad again. They were in first place for most of the season, but could not maintain it down the stretch. I'm sure I'll end up picking them again next year (thanks Amy and Claire). However, I was correct in stating that neither of last years World Series participants would make the playoffs. All in all a very mediocre effort. Almost Steve Phillips like (although I have to apologize to Steve for ridiculing him when he said that the Mets wouldn't make the playoffs and the Rockies would win the wildcard. He also said the Yankees wouldn't make it so I'm still holding that against him). Arod will win the MVP in the AL, Pujols will not win it in the NL. I picked Jake Peavy to win the Cy Young last year, so I'm going to take partial credit for that one. I just didn't think that he would be able to stay healthy all year. My AL Cy Young pick Rich Harden got hurt in the first month of the season and never recovered, so I'm going to give my self a pass on that one.

Now lets get on to picking the winners of the division series'. The Red Sox finished with the best record in baseball and are playing a Angels team that is a little banged up. Tim Wakefield is out for the Red Sox, but it won't hurt them at all because they opted for the longer series format which only requires them to use three starting pitchers. That means Beckett and Schilling would get two starts a piece in a five game series. The Angels are a scrappy bunch of players and they seem to have the Yankees number, but I don't see them getting past the Red Sox. The Red Sox have too much offense (as long as Manny is healthy and Ortiz stays hot) and just enough pitching to lose to the Angels. My call is the Red Sox in four.

In the NL the Phillies and Rockies face off in the most improbably series in baseball history. The odds against two teams who were down by 6-1/2 games with 14 games to play both making the playoffs are probably astronomical. I can't remember a more improbable ending to a season. The Rockies come in as the hottest team in baseball, having won 14 of their last 15 games. The Phillies are no slouches in the heat department as they won 13 of their last 17 to overtake the Mets and win the East. So who has the advantage? Given that the offenses of both teams are capable of putting up a lot of runs (they ranked one and two in runs scored in the NL), the difference may come down to the bullpens. Both teams are relying on pitchers who did not have the closers job when the season started. Manny Corpas has been very effective for the Rockies since taking over the closing duties from Brian Fuertes while the Phillies have relied on converted starter Bret Myers since Tom Gordon got hurt. Corpas has been more effective pitcher since the All-Star Break and that may just be enough to put the Rockies over the top. I'm going to pick the Rockies in five.

The Cubs are playing the Diamondbacks in the other NL series. The Diamondbacks are another improbable playoff team. They have a team of young position players, one very good starter and a closer who led the league in saves. The Cubs spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the off season and during the season (signing Carlos Zambrano to a long term deal) and have reached the playoffs for the first time since the infamous Steve Bartman year of '04. The Cubs have a balanced offense, good starting pitching and of course the fiery and overrated Lou Pinella in the dugout. So clearly I have no choice but to pick the Diamondbacks to win this series. I'll pick Arizona in five with Brandon Webb winning games one and five at home.

That just leaves the Yankees and the Indians. the Yankees dominated the Indians during the regular season (just like they did the Tigers last year) going 6-0. The Indians have very little playoff experience (just like the Tigers last year). They also have the best one-two combination of starters in the AL in Carmona and Sabathia. By some fluke, the Yankees haven't faced Sabathia in three years and while they have good numbers against him, those numbers were compiled when Sabathia was a much different pitcher. The Yankees will counter with Wang and Pettite, but the pitching edge, at least in the first two games has to go to the Indians. Jeter and Arod have to come up big against Sabathia for the Yankees to have any chance at stealing game one. The problem with that scenario is that Arod actually hits better against right handers and Sabathia is lethal on left handers (they hit .203 against him). It might be a long night in Cleveland. Andy Pettite's presumed big game pitching is mostly a myth. He has pitched well in some big games and he's gotten bombed in others. Carmona has a 2.26 post all-star game ERA and was probably the best pitcher in the AL in the second half. He pitched twice against the Yankees this year without a win, but that was before the Indians turned their season around. The Indians actually have a better record than the Yankees over the past 30 games. So potentially the Yankees could be down 2-0 coming back to the stadium and would have Roger Clemens going to the mound in the first time in a month. Roger is coming back from a hamstring injury and will not be at 100%. If he's not able the go the options for the Yankees would be either the very inconsistent Mike Mussina or the rookie Phil Hughes. I just don't see the Yankees winning this series, in fact I think that they will be hard pressed not to get swept. The Yankees have the best offense in baseball, but at this time of year, it's about pitching (as the Tigers proved last year) and I just don't think that they have the pitching to stack up to the Indians. My call is the Indians in four.

That's it for now. I certainly hope I'm wrong about the Yankees. I would hate for the season to come to an end next week, but it might. I'll hope for the best but expect the worst. Good luck to everyone who still has a dog in the hunt.

Method Man

Here are the results from the weekend:

Cleveland +4

The Browns beat the Ravens by 2 touchdowns. I guess that ouburst against against the Bengals wasn't a fluke. The Browns appear to have emerged from their long slumber. The Dog Pound rejoices. 1-0

Minnesota +1

The Vikings got beat by the Packers and Brett Favre broke Dan Marino's all time touchdown record. I don't care how many he throws, I'll always believe that Marino is better than him. 1-1

Buffalo +3.5

The Bill actually beat the Jets this weekend. I don't have much to say about this one. Apparently NY is represented by two pretty mediocre teams. 2-1

St. Louis +13

The Cowboys took care of business by destroying the Rams. Tony Romo continues to look like one of the best QBs in the league. The Cowboys have now scored more points in the first four games than all but four teams in the post expansion era. How about them Cowboys! 2-2

Tampa Bay +3

Another win for the underdog. The Panther's, who a year ago, were a superbowl pick of many, seem to have fallen on hard times. 3-2

Kansas City +11.5

The Chiefs with the handicap of the second largest spread of the weekend, went out and beat the once mighty Chargers. Who knew that losing Marty Schotenhiemer would make such a difference. I'm sure he's still available. Perhaps they should give him a call. Norv Turner shouldn't get too comfortable in San Diego. And considering the terrible job he did in his last head coaching assignment, why on earth did he get another one? 4-2

Giants +2.5

The Giants Defense (that's right with a capital D) showed up for the first time all season and man handled the Eagles. They tied the NFL record for sacks in a game and showed that they may be able to turn things around. I'm not sure about the Eagles though. Perhaps McNabb has been eating too much of that Chunky Soup. 5-2

Detroit +2.5

The Lions continued the horrible season for the Bears as they came back from a ten point deficit in the fourth quarter by putting up 34 points!!! ( I couldn't believe it either) over the final 15 minutes against the once fearsome Bears defense. The Bears tried a new QB this week, but that's not going fix what's wrong with their defense. Lovey Smith goes from genius to idiot in one season. 6-2

Atlanta +2.5

The Falcons got their first win of the season to keep the SM rolling. The Texans aren't a pushover anymore, but they still haven't figured out how to be consistent quite yet. The Falcons get their first win in the post Vick era. 7-2

Oakland +4

The Raiders absolutely crushed the Dolphins as Dante Culpepper showed that he's still got some life left in that surgically repaired knee. He ran for three touchdowns and threw for a couple more and the Raiders went into Miami and embarrassed the home team. I always thought Culpepper was a good QB, he just had the stupidest TD celebration in the league. Hopefully the time off gave him the opportunity to come up with something else. 8-2

San Francisco +1

The 49ers didn't do their part for me this weekend. They lost to Seattle and managed to score only 3 points. Sometimes it looks like the 49ers might be turning things around and then they go out and put on a performance like this one. Bill Walsh must be spinning in his grave. 8-3

Denver +11

The Broncos put up a struggle but in the end could not cover the spread. They were only down by a point at halftime but got outscored 24-7 after that. It's amazing how much less of a genius Mike Shannahan is these days without Elway and Terrell Davis in the backfield. 8-4

Arizona +6

The Cardinals stunned the previously unbeaten Steelers this weekend. The two headed QB (Leinart/Warner) Warnart seems to be effective enough at this point. And they provided the SM with a 70% winning percentage for the weekend. 9-4

Cincy +7.5

The Cincinnati defense, which gave up 51 points to Cleveland a couple of weeks ago doesn't seem capable of slowing down the high powered offense of the Patriots. The spread should probably be at least two touchdowns in this one. Anyway, either way this goes, the SM has proven itself again. I hope someone out there is getting rich.